Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Value Ev]

500,000 was so last month. Make a $1k deposit today and see when your estimated delivery timeframe would be. It's not that difficult if you're not mathematically challenged. However, if you are, just use google and search for their announcement of estimated timeframe. Put the two and two together and you should be able to figure it out. Although two and two does involve a little math... I assume you can add...

You are taking their estimates of production capability and timing at face value which is .... amusing ... given that we are talking about Tesla. I know, I know, it will be different this time, because...well because we say it will be.

If you did the same "math" a year ago on the X, you would conclude they are selling 150k X's a year, especially since they announced at the time they had a 35k backlog in orders. LOL.

 

[esk8mw]

Are we really at a point where a 4+ year old car not winning car of the year according to one car magazine's subjective (and potentially biased, no Tesla ad money putting the editors' kids through college) opinion spells doom for the SP? I just don't see it.

Don't get me wrong, I expect TSLA to continue heading south in the near term for completely unrelated reasons, but if a car magazine award is the catalyst for more than 5 minutes tomorrow that's pretty hilarious.

 

[larmor]

I think we should be contratulating Chevrolet on a great vehicle. They won.

I think the market should congratulate TM for making money on premium product, finding ways to make more money on said product, and making them hand over fist. I think the market cares about earnings for all companies, except tesla for some weird reason, and now we have to stress that the bolt won an award.

I want an award too, since my tax dollars went to bail out GM.

 

[Value Ev]

This turned out to be true. Congrats GM, Motor Trend is now in your pocket, must have been an inexpensive purchase.

LOL.

Well, if they paid for comments like this...

"And instantly, we encountered the jarring contrast between the Chevy’s industrial-dork 50-kW SAE combo receptacle and Tesla’s slinky Supercharger plugs. Incompatibility is not the right word. Trying to plug one into the other would be like inserting an über-efficient Cree LED into Thomas Edison’s 1879 incandescent socket. Eye. Roll."

and pointing out that 10/11 people would keep their 3 reservation after seeing this car.

...then they should be asking for their money back, no matter how little they paid.

 

[Value Ev]

I think the market should congratulate TM for making money on premium product, finding ways to make more money on said product, and making them hand over fist. I think the market cares about earnings for all companies, except tesla for some weird reason, and now we have to stress that the bolt won an award.
.

The market congratulates them every day. They have a huge valuation based on their potential - not on their actual results.

 

[Roger t]

Tesla is in another league and is way ahead in terms of customer satisfaction and technology. It's more important to have customers who love the product (Most loved car in America) than winning some tournament (Motor Trend). Would Steve Jobs care about iPhone winning a phone of the year award? There are plenty of cheaper Android phones out there. But people still desire iPhone more. It's the same for Tesla.

 

[sundaymorning]

You are taking their estimates of production capability and timing at face value which is .... amusing ... given that we are talking about Tesla. I know, I know, it will be different this time, because...well because we say it will be.

If you did the same "math" a year ago on the X, you would conclude they are selling 150k X's a year, especially since they announced at the time they had a 35k backlog in orders. LOL.

So what if Tesla is a bit late. It's about the end goal. Even if we are late by 3-4 months, by then we'll have well over 750,000 orders, and yes I'm low balling. Too bad your Bolt can only get a maximum of 30,000 per year. Gee I wonder why?

 

[SunCatcher]

Congrats GM, Motor Trend is now in your pocket, must have been an inexpensive purchase.

Don't forget; Tesla does not pay for advertising. GM does. If the day ever comes whenTesla advertises, they will magically gain much favor with news sources, such as Motor Trend. Advertising dollars are what keep these publications going.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I doubt Bolt will sell more than couple of thousand cars this year. For all practical purposes there will be no significant sales for Bolt until next year. It would be pretty interesting if Model 3, although making to market about 9 month later than Bolt can nevertheless deliver more cars than Bolt in 2017.

 

[Tenable]

Apologies if this has been answered, I ran a search and came up empty. Do we know when the results of the merger vote will be released, also how/where they will be published?

 

[Krugerrand]

Are we really at a point where a 4+ year old car not winning car of the year according to one car magazine's subjective (and potentially biased, no Tesla ad money putting the editors' kids through college) opinion spells doom for the SP? I just don't see it.

Don't get me wrong, I expect TSLA to continue heading south in the near term for completely unrelated reasons, but if a car magazine award is the catalyst for more than 5 minutes tomorrow that's pretty hilarious.

Not doom. Nobody said doom. More downward pressure, yes.

It's not that Tesla didn't win, it's that some people will be flogging Bolt is a Tesla killer and all related articles that will be coming out, thus continuing to drive the negative narrative.

 

[SteveG3]

“This is a direct challenge for Tesla to make the Model 3 anything near the Bolt EV for the same price,” executive editor Mark Rechtin said. “Chevrolet has made affordable long-range electric transportation available to the masses. Elon Musk should be afraid. Very, very afraid.”


did not expect Motor Trend to associate themselves with such foolishness. it's not as if the shorts weren't going to think up that nonsense on there own, but...

 

[SteveG3]

I suspect they are going to pick the Bolt as COY given what they have already said about the car. Prepare for FUDsters to spin this as disaster for Tesla as if the long range EVs were a separate kiddie pool of the auto market which will fillup with the minuscule 30K annual Bolt capacity GM has (battery constrained). This will likely be particularly laughable FUD as probably the point of the Motor Trend choosing the Bolt (if they do) will be that it is a major step towards EVs flatout matching up well with ICE (ie NOT a tiny kiddie pool market for the most "Green" among us) at mass market prices. Anyone really thinking about this would see this as a Motor Trend endorsement for the Model 3 and all mass market priced long range EVs.

as expected,

"Perhaps the most impressive thing about the Bolt EV is there are no caveats, no “for an electric car” qualifiers needed in any discussion. It is, simply, a world-class small car, and that’s before you factor in the benefits inherent in the smoothness, silence, and instant-on torque provided by the electric motor. The ride is firm and sporty, but transmitted road noise is very well damped. The steering has slightly artificial weighting, but brake feel is natural, and once you learn to use the higher regenerative braking modes, you can pretty much drive all the time without touching the friction brakes at all.

It’s not quite correct to say the Bolt EV drives just like a regular small hatchback, because, fundamentally, it drives better than most regular small hatchbacks. The under-floor battery pack keeps most of the mass low in the chassis—and between the wheels. The front-to-rear weight distribution of 56/44 percent is better than any small front-drive car in this year’s field, and it’s not far off the 54/46 of the tossable rear-drive Fiat 124 Spider. “If this car were fitted with a set of grippy tires, it’d be a helluva hot hatch,” road test editor Chris Walton said. “I’d put it against a Mazda3 or Golf for fun per mile.”

 

[Krugerrand]

“This is a direct challenge for Tesla to make the Model 3 anything near the Bolt EV for the same price,” executive editor Mark Rechtin said. “Chevrolet has made affordable long-range electric transportation available to the masses. Elon Musk should be afraid. Very, very afraid.”


did not expect Motor Trend to associate themselves with such foolishness. it's not as if the shorts weren't going to think up that nonsense on there own, but...

Wow, and that didn't take long. So disappointing. Has the guy even bothered to look at the Model 3 prototype?!

 

[racer26]

“This is a direct challenge for Tesla to make the Model 3 anything near the Bolt EV for the same price,” executive editor Mark Rechtin said. “Chevrolet has made affordable long-range electric transportation available to the masses. Elon Musk should be afraid. Very, very afraid.”


did not expect Motor Trend to associate themselves with such foolishness. it's not as if the shorts weren't going to think up that nonsense on there own, but...

Seriously?

M3 won't be anything near Bolt (it will be substantially better) for the same price (M3 is cheaper!)

I mean, 30,000 is a lot, but its hardly the motoring masses.

 

[sundaymorning]

I doubt Bolt will sell more than couple of thousand cars this year. For all practical purposes there will be no significant sales for Bolt until next year. It would be pretty interesting if Model 3, although making to market about 9 month later than Bolt can nevertheless deliver more cars than Bolt in 2017.

The Bolt is going to sell, much like the leaf has sold well. Europeans love small cars like the Smart, Mini Cooper, etc. it's actually smart of Chevy to sneak through Europe as they know who's the "big daddy" of EVs here in the states. In the end, the battle will be fought and won in China.

 

[SteveG3]

The Bolt is going to sell, much like the leaf has sold well. Europeans love small cars like the Smart, Mini Cooper, etc. it's actually smart of Chevy to sneak through Europe as they know who's the "big daddy" of EVs here in the states. In the end, the battle will be fought and won in China.

it could do better than the Leaf, but they only have battery supply for about 30,000 Bolts per year. I'm very very confident there's way more than 30,000 people who are going to find themselves on a multiyear wait for the Model 3. if GM really was enthusiastic about going after EVs they could pick up far more than 30,000 people from the supply shortage of Model 3s (not to mention join the SuperCharger network, and roll out another long range BEV that realistically can be compared to the Model 3 in terms of class of car at a similar price). all that said, better GM made this car than not, so congratulations to them.

 

[sundaymorning]

it could do better than the Leaf, but they only have battery supply for about 30,000 Bolts per year. I'm very very confident there's way more than 30,000 people who are going to find themselves on a multiyear wait for the Model 3.

Yea I have no doubt the Bolt will sell well. 30,000 a year is a start, they'll be battery constrained for awhile, maybe within 2-3 years they'll figure that a battery factory is needed. Whatever the case Tesla is well positioned for a breakout with M3. Knowing how Elon operates, I have a hunch that he's going to use the extra motivation from Motor Trend to speed up M3 factory. Let's face it, the Bolt is a simple car, if Elon can keep it simple, we should be on time.

 

[SteveG3]

Yea I have no doubt the Bolt will sell well. 30,000 a year is a start, they'll be battery constrained for awhile, maybe within 2-3 years they'll figure that a battery factory is needed. Whatever the case Tesla is well positioned for a breakout with M3. Knowing how Elon operates, I have a hunch that he's going to use the extra motivation from Motor Trend to speed up M3 factory. Let's face it, the Bolt is a simple car, if Elon can keep it simple, we should be on time.

good point. In the wake of the Model X rampup, I think on a scale of 1 to 10, Elon has ranged from about a 7 to 9 in terms of focus and passion not to allow substantial slippage of commencement of Model 3 delivery. this might raise him to a steady 9 to 10. I'd raise the odds of Model 3 first delivery less than 1 year from Bolt from ~60% to ~80%.

 

[FANGO]

As ever, I'm going to step here and say what I always say: same team. The Bolt will benefit EVs in general, which will benefit Tesla, not harm it. Yes we can complain about GM's sales/lobbying tactics, but this is a good car which provides competition for ICE, not for EVs. And I've ridden in one, and it's the best non-Tesla car I've been in. That helps us.