Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ulmo]

Makes sense to me. The same way it makes sense that SpaceX can make rockets for cheaper than anyone else on the planet...it's called finding the inefficiencies in the manufacturing of the product and logistics and getting rid of them. Vertically integrating the whole process, cutting out middle men, optimizing production, etc... Voila, massive reduction in costs.

Yes, yes, yes, and also engineering new materials. They're using quartz glass, two words I haven't yet seen in any traditional pie charts of roofing.
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You can't honestly be sitting there, looking at those pictures, and trying to say that you can't see why they failed and Tesla won't staring you in the face, can you?

He's why we're making money by investing now and selling later?

 

[3Victoria]

He was comparing like-to-like. He showed four different tiles -- none of them looked like asphalt shingles. So, he was comparing Tesla-clay to clay, Tesla-slate to slate, etc. So, I assume, the Tesla-tiles are cheaper or same as their corresponding normal (ie non-solar) equivalent.

 

[racer26]

He was comparing like-to-like. He showed four different tiles -- none of them looked like asphalt shingles. So, he was comparing Tesla-clay to clay, Tesla-slate to slate, etc. So, I assume, the Tesla-tiles are cheaper or same as their corresponding normal (ie non-solar) equivalent.

What traditional roofing material do the Textured Glass and Smooth Glass Tesla tiles compare to?

I'd argue the textured ones are reasonably reminiscent of shingle.

I'd certainly accept an argument that the terra cotta and slate style options might be more expensive (they seem tougher to make to me), but I honestly doubt they're targeting the highest end roofing material price point when they say 'cost of a normal roof'. Those roof types are sold so rarely by comparison to shingle it won't be compelling enough. Elon doesn't sell products that aren't compelling.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It is unbelievable and I don't believe. It makes no sense, that when you ad solar cell to roof tile it costs less than a tile without it.

Unless the way you make, distribute and install glass tile costs less than the way clay tiles are made, distributed and installed. If that difference is equal or more than cost of PV cell, the final product - solar roof - has the same or lower cost than the tile roof. Makes all the sense to me.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I would expect Tesla to start production of the slate-type roof first. This is the higher price point, where Tesla can get in more money and use that to scale up production. This is just like the car-side of the business, where the performance models come first.

If Tesla can take 1% of the roofing market with the slate-type solar roof, that's 40-50k roofs per year. If we assume each installation is 10 kW, that's 400-500 MW per year. That's plenty to start. Then three months down the line they introduce a lower priced product, bumping market share to 2-3%, then another three months down the line they add a third product, bumping market share to 5%. And then they just continue adding products, and opening new markets globally.

 

[mmd]

Yes, yes, yes, and also engineering new materials. They're using quartz glass, two words I haven't yet seen in any traditional pie charts of roofing.
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He's why we're making money by investing now and selling later?

Nice try folks,to crack some jokes.I've seen this drama with Powerwall last year. This is just deja vu for me. There were many like you two, claiming $100M TE revenue by December of last year. If you have been investing in TSLA since your join dates, you haven't made much unless you were trading the ups and downs like me

Let's check again when the ordering page opens for these new miracle tiles, ok? Till that time, it's just speculation vs. realism.

 

[sundaymorning]

Not every glass/tile Tesla installs
Will have solar capabilities. Maybe 1/5 of your roof will have solar capabilities while 4/5s will be regular glass. Hence, the cost savings...

This is very similar to regular solar, it only covers a fraction of your roof. 1/5 coverage is more than necessary, the other 4/5s will be dummies to blend for aesthetic value. If Elon says it's cheaper, than its cheaper. Just end it there.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Some might find this interesting - someone on the Norwegian EV forum inquired about the Solar Roof, and Tesla said it would be at least 2-3 years before it is available here in Norway. I take this to mean they don't really know when it will come to Norway, if ever.

Personally, I'm thinking that the Buffalo factory will only supply the US and Canada. To expand globally Tesla will need new factories, and I think a factory in Europe would likely be high on the list of priorities. Our roofs are generally very similar to the solar roofs, we can afford solar, and we want to go green.

 

[Xpert]

I would expect Tesla to start production of the slate-type roof first. This is the higher price point, where Tesla can get in more money and use that to scale up production. This is just like the car-side of the business, where the performance models come first.

If Tesla can take 1% of the roofing market with the slate-type solar roof, that's 40-50k roofs per year. If we assume each installation is 10 kW, that's 400-500 MW per year. That's plenty to start. Then three months down the line they introduce a lower priced product, bumping market share to 2-3%, then another three months down the line they add a third product, bumping market share to 5%. And then they just continue adding products, and opening new markets globally.

This was my original thought but now I am going to guess they will make tiles first as it is the second most popular type after asphalt, they are not that cheap either.
They already make great car glasses with a glass group, combining with their PV cell making powerhouse partner Panasonic joining the buffalo factory to ramp up cell production, solar roof shipping in volume next summer does not appear unreasonable.

 

[mmd]

Soltech in Sweden makes some glass roof tiles. they are using it for free heat and electricity. They are still in business. Someone in Europe can get the price of glass tiles from their dealers.
SolTech's Beautiful Glass Roof Tiles Heat Your Home With Solar Energy
Attractive, sustainable and simple - SolTech Energy

 

[dennis]

Time was up? He said just a few questions, then just one more. He telegraphed his departure. He's a busy man.

He needed to got back to Fremont to help with ramping battery production for the 100D

 

[RobStark]

Adding Cementious, Slate, Clay and Concrete, I get 32.8%; I assume this will be easy for Tesla Roof to penetrate. This says "market share". Is that roof area, or dollars?

Yes, we know with good certainty that cheap asphalt is not 99% of the market.

 

[dennis]

It is unbelievable and I don't believe. It makes no sense, that when you ad solar cell to roof tile it costs less than a tile without it.

I you listened to what Elon said you would have learned that the solar roof tiles weigh 4-5 times less, that existing tiles experience a lot of breakage, that a lot of the cost of existing tiles is in the shipping and that the supply chain for roofing is very inefficient.

 

[ajax]

It is unbelievable and I don't believe. It makes no sense, that when you ad solar cell to roof tile it costs less than a tile without it.

If you listened to what Elon said you would have learned that the solar roof tiles weigh 4-5 times less, than existing tiles experience a lot of breakage, that a lot of the cost of existing tiles is in the shipping and that the supply chain for roofing is very inefficient.

Also, in case anyone isn't already aware, only a fraction of the tiles will contain solar cells.

 

[MitchJi]

Caution equals we not only can't build compelling EV's, but we can not build them with the same margins that we make on our trucks and SUV's, which is less than Tesla will make on the M3.
Carmakers show their caution on electric cars at Los Angeles Auto Show

Carmakers show their caution on electric cars at Los Angeles Auto Show
Electric cars are taking a back seat to more profitable trucks and sport utility vehicles at this year's Los Angeles Auto Show, a venue that recently has been a showcase for green cars. Despite Tesla Motors' bold bet on consumer demand for all-electric vehicles, traditional automakers at the show are pushing the trucks and SUVs that generate fat profits, in a reflection of how cheaper gasoline is influencing consumer spending. To view the upcoming all-electric Chevy Bolt, billed by General Motors as the future of electric vehicles, a potential buyer must first wade through myriad displays of trucks and SUVs at the Chevrolet section.

Underscoring how trucks are still the meat and potatoes of the traditional auto industry - and extremely popular in Southern California - Chevrolet constructed a rugged off-road circuit on Tuesday to show off the power of its off-road pickup, the 2017 Colorado ZR2.

Chevrolet Marketing Director Steve Majoros told Reuters brands such as the Bolt "are important to our business, important to our image, but they kind of live on the fringes when it comes to volume."

Majoros said there was "a lot of built-up demand" for the Bolt ahead of its Dec. 1 advertising launch in key markets.

However, Chevrolet officials won't say how many have been ordered or what planned production volumes are. Suppliers said they expect the Bolt initially will be produced at a rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 a year.

Tesla Motors Inc, Silicon Valley's luxury electric carmaker, says it has had nearly 400,000 pre-orders for its Model 3 sedan due in 2018 and is accelerating production by a factor of five to meet future demand.

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk, speaking to shareholders on Thursday, noted the predicted low annual volume of Bolt EVs, saying Chevrolet needs to make 300,00-500,000 per year for the car "to make a difference."

Electric vehicles are currently a money-losing burden for carmakers forced to comply with federal fuel efficiency rules and even more rigorous standards in California, which mandates that 15 percent of carmakers' sales must come from emissions-free vehicles by 2025.

Market demand, however, is shifting toward trucks and sport utilities. The National Automobile Dealers Association says a predicted 17.1 million new car and truck sales in 2017 would favor light-truck sales, for an expected 60 percent of the market, up from 50 percent in 2013.

Low fuel prices are behind a five-year decline in green vehicle sales, which is undercutting efforts by automakers to build economies of scale for new technology, said Hyundai Motor America Chief Executive Dave Zuchowski.

"That's a particularly disheartening metric," Zuchowski told auto dealers at the AutoConferenceLA gathering on Tuesday.

Facing expensive upfront costs and a mostly indifferent public - yet mandated to meet fuel efficiency standards - some brands are experimenting only modestly with electrification.

GMC showed off its Sierra 1500 with eAssist that combines a V8 engine with a 0.45 kWh lithium-ion battery pack to improve fuel economy by as much as 13 percent.

The battery, which adds $1,125 to the price, is not large enough to qualify for clean air credits in California.

GMC built only 200 vehicles for 2016 for the California market and most have been sold. It is still weighing how many to make for next year, said Stuart Pierce, GMC senior marketing manager.

"We're trying to gauge receptiveness right now," said Pierce, who added that truck customers "maybe wouldn't be ready to go so far" as a hybrid or fully-electric vehicle.

Audi and Jaguar plan to release electric SUVs in 2018, and BMW will launch an electric Mini in 2019. Audi parent Volkswagen says it will build 30 new electric vehicles by 2025.

But Volkswagen's offering this year at the show? The 2017 Atlas SUV with a gasoline engine.

"We are expanding VW's line-up to meet America's demand for SUVs," said Hinrich Woebcken, Volkswagen of America CEO.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

VW to cut 30 000 jobs after Dieselgate to save money (link).

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like the solar roofing tiles have existed for a while. Here is a 2005 article talking about how big companies are jumping on the bandwagon of BIPV. Many of these companies are no more (SRS technologies, Applied solar). Let's hope it finally takes off.

SOLAR PANEL ROOF TILES

Sure, and video calling existing for decades before Apple took it and made it work (read simple), same for EV's, been around for ages, but Tesla made them viable, better than the equivalent ICE.

It's not about the concept or the idea, it's about the execution and implementation.

The same will be the case for Space X's satellite cloud for Internet - nothing new here, many others want to do it, but SX WILL do it and it will work.

Stay LONG, get rich!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

On the most recent comments of JB Straubel about efficiency increase of Model 3 battery (30% compared to Model S?).

Can someone of the battery guys here please elaborate to what max range that should translate for Model 3?
From my back of the envelope calculation I get about the same range for Model 3 as Model S, I see up to 500km of real world driving range in the cards for Model 3.

I am getting more and more the impression that a lot of people underestimate features of Gen 3 vehicles.

 

[Gerasimental]

Various places I zoomed into Europe looked like scenes from World War II movies: concrete barriers, concrete walls, concrete towers. Concrete power poles! What a depressing area! Chasms and caves and walls and canyons of concrete everywhere. Little tiny houses. What a miserable depressing place to live.

Thanks for your concern mate, but it's not too shabby over here! Of course we'd all like to live in McMansions with little neoclassical porticos with columns that aren't supporting anything, but with all this socialism we have to make do with the slums of London, Berlin, Paris, Copenhagen, Prague, Barcelona, and other such Dickensian horrorstories ridden with disease, decay, and abject poverty

 

[RobStark]

VW to cut 30 000 jobs after Dieselgate to save money (link).

By 2025.

It just seems like a hiring freeze for blue collar workers and most white collar positions save for critically needed engineers.