Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[vgrinshpun]

Two questions in my mind about today's trading:
1) Are we going to break through 195?
2) Are the shorts going to mess with TSLA in the low volume afternoon hours?

I suppose the second question is related to the first and whether TSLA can carry momentum into the afternoon

Edit: There's 195

SMA(50) at $197.99 is next

 

[Noble Ninja]

It's incredibly EASY to launch M3 in late 2017. You have a launch event and hand the keys to five new owners...

This is exactly what GM plans to do with the Bolt EV. Sell a small batch this Fall, with large volume to start early 2017. This way, they can verifiably say the Bolt launched in 2016 (without mentioning the time in the year) and make it sound like they launched a full year before Model 3 (2017). So, all Tesla has to do is pull a GM!

 

[Crowded Mind]

Schwab finally converted the SCTY shares over to TSLA and omg forgot I had some super high SCTY that's now equivalent to $400!! Bumped my TSLA average by 10 bucks.

Lol anyone with higher equivalents?? Maybe we sell in 2 years at 500?

Ha, 2 shares at $510 for me. Still gonna profit on that trade some day.

 

[vgrinshpun]

If it was an attempt to manipulate SP, AJ just scored another fail. If it was not, I have concerns about his mental health.

 

[jgillispie]

A bit concerned about 4Q deliveries. Not much deliveries going on in November Model X deliveries thread. Tesla Model X November Tracker

Also, Elon looking into a Model S delay order in a tweet Twitter

Looks like a majority of deliveries are/will be stacked into the December time frame, with the holidays and possible winter storms, anyone else concerned the ~25K deliveries are at risk?

I think they will be quite high. Cutting off the free supercharging got a family member of mine off the fence and buy one this quarter. Also there have been some really good deals on AP1 inventory cars and they seem to be moving fast from my observations on ev-cpo the last few weeks.

 

[Ovulation]

If it was an attempt to manipulate SP, AJ just scored another fail. If it was not, I have concerns about his mental health.

Well when you put out a very conservative note and I mean very and still come up with a number above the currently SP than your hit piece sucks. All I can say about Jonas is that IMO he gets the future of mobility.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Did Jonas by any chance provide any explanation of why he thinks the Model 3 won't arrive until 2018? Considering we're a few months away from the reveal and initial production, and Elon is standing by the original time frame, I think Jonas is making up this assumption.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Well when you put out a very conservative note and I mean very and still come up with a number above the currently SP than your hit piece sucks. All I can say about Jonas is that IMO he gets the future of mobility.

Yes he does get few things. The question is WTF is he doing and why... Especially since he is clearly NOT clueless.

 

[Rarity]

TSLA is trying to knock down ~$195 resistance. So far, judging by Fidelity data, there is no serious covering going on today. Momentum traders getting in??

As one data point, yesterday Fidelity managed to lend out my TSLA shares from two different accounts for the first time in about a month. I thought that the fully paid lending gravy train was over, but am happy to see that I was in error.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Did Jonas by any chance provide any explanation of why he thinks the Model 3 won't arrive until 2018? Considering we're a few months away from the reveal and initial production, and Elon is standing by the original time frame, I think Jonas is making up this assumption.

I'm sure it's his assumption. And I can't say it's a bad assumption based on the fact that Tesla has been later than originally predicted with everything else major they've released.

Having said that, I think it's a great note. If AJ can come up with a price target of $245 based on Model 3 being 1 year later than planned and in less volume, $0 for SCTY, $0 for Tesla Energy, etc. Imagine if you believe Model 3 is NOT going to be that late, you believe Tesla Energy will contribute something more than a negligible amount of revenue in the near future and SCTY is worth more than $0 - then what would the price target be?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'm sure it's his assumption. And I can't say it's a bad assumption based on the fact that Tesla has been later than originally predicted with everything else major they've released.

Having said that, I think it's a great note. If AJ can come up with a price target of $245 based on Model 3 being 1 year later than planned and in less volume, $0 for SCTY, $0 for Tesla Energy, etc. Imagine if you believe Model 3 is NOT going to be that late, you believe Tesla Energy will contribute something more than a negligible amount of revenue in the near future and SCTY is worth more than $0 - then what would the price target be?

I agree with your second point. I disagree with your first point. The factors that caused the Model S and Model X to be delayed are very unlikely to happen with the Model 3. Also, Tesla has a lot more leverage than it had a few years ago with suppliers.

 

[Ovulation]

Yes he does get few things. The question is WTF is he doing and why... Especially since he is clearly NOT clueless.

Who knows what goes on those Big Banks maybe he is helping out his robo colleagues which focus on short term trading ... but I'm convinced he and his mother secretly own some Tesla shares, this guy is now a Crypto-Bull

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Just an observation. The Chaebol model in Korea is running into some massive problems, Samsung's offices have been raided in the past few weeks, and South Korea is in desperate need of a new growth model. It would probably make a lot of sense for South Korea to do everything possible to work with Tesla, and possibly give Tesla billions of dollars in basically interest free loans to stabilize the South Korean economy and move South Korea's economy away from the outdated Chaebol.

Tesla CEO Seeks to Expand Partnerships with Korean Firms, Join Automotive Convergence Alliance

 

[30seconds]

Sometimes the analysts write notes targeting the current share price and come up with the assumptions to support them. It is a conservative way to describe a flat SP. As many have noted there are very conservative assumptions in his model which gives him room to claim the upside if Tesla delivers under the "bull" case.

 

[SuperDragon]

Yes he does get few things. The question is WTF is he doing and why... Especially since he is clearly NOT clueless.

They are still addicted to investing in big oil.

 

[FredTMC]

Did Jonas by any chance provide any explanation of why he thinks the Model 3 won't arrive until 2018? Considering we're a few months away from the reveal and initial production, and Elon is standing by the original time frame, I think Jonas is making up this assumption.

YES, YES, YES. That's EXACTLY my point too!!

What factual basis does he have for his assumption that M3 launch will be a full year late?

Here's some facts:

- Tesla recently announced they are accelerating their M3 volume prod plans.

- Tesla indicated on Q3 ER that rollout is on track

I find it plausible tesla launches M3 late... i.e. December 2017 or even Q1'18

But I would be shocked if keys weren't handed to first owners on stage by early 2018

For AJ to claim very late 2018 is absurd without evidence.

Here's some evidence in favor of reasonable on-time launch:

1). Stated goal of "ease of manufacture" by design

2). Body panels / stamping seems to be done. Not critical path

3). Design is pencils down already. Working on machines that build the machine (car)

4). Per Q3 ER, tesla has layout done for first M3 assembly line

5). Power train design. Done.

6). 2170 cells. GF appears on schedule.

7). Tesla stated objective to bring any part in-house from any supplier that has issues

 

[moe.salih]

33 – SolarCity is Misunderstood — The Tesla Show – A Tesla Podcast — Overcast

An excellent episode about everything SolarCity. This is the best Tesla podcast by far.

 

[ggr]

II) all of Tesla's valuable assets outside of NV pledged to the ABL creditors (check the restrictive covenants on new debt);

Are you sure about this one? My understanding of the ABL (but I don't have time to check just now) is that it is only secured by the automotive assets in question, that is, inventory produced and on its way to customers.

 

[brian45011]

I could be wrong, but I don't see any mortgages on the factory in Fremont, the casting factory in Lathrop, Tesla Advanced Automation Germany (formerly Grohmann Engineering), Tesla Michigan (formerly Riviera Tool & Die), etc.

" Tesla Motors, Inc. (the “ Company ”) and its subsidiary Tesla Motors Netherlands B.V. (“ Tesla B.V. ” and together with the Company, collectively, the “ Borrowers ”), entered into an ABL Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”)"

"The Borrowers have also granted security interests in their respective accounts, inventory, certain equipment, certain related assets, specified deposit accounts for the collection of accounts receivable, and certain other accounts to secure all obligations of the Borrowers under the Credit Agreement and the related credit documents. Future subsidiary guarantors are also required to become a party to the applicable security agreements."

You are correct "all interests in Real Property" are subsumed in Excluded Assets; however, they are encumbered by:

"(a) For purposes of enabling the Collateral Agent to exercise rights and remedies under this Agreement each Assignor hereby grants to the Collateral Agent and its agents, representatives and designees:

(i) an irrevocable, nonexclusive, royalty free license, rent-free license and rent-free lease (which will be binding on any successor or assignee of such Assignor) to, after the occurrence and during the continuance of an Event of Default have access to and use all of such Assignor’s Real Property (including the buildings and other improvements thereon), Equipment and fixtures (whether or not considered Real Property); and ..."

Who is going to lend money and take back as collateral a mortgage on building shells and underlying land subject to that pre-existing grant?
Tesla - Current Report

SpaceX can refinance the Solar Notes without blinking and has already made it clear that they will buy 'em. Elon can take out a personal loan against his SpaceX stock and buy bonds from Tesla. Seriously, they don't need to raise equity.
(...until 2019. There's a lot of refinancing in 2019 and they'll probably be trying to build a second, third, fourth Gigafactory by then.)

Fidelity and Google gave SpaceX $1 billion for an equity interest in early 2015. IMO, part of the motivation for the SCTY merger was to substitute TSLA owners for SpaceX owners as the source of funds for SCTY's activities. By Feb 2019 Tesla will have to refinance about $220 million in remainling 2018 notes and all of the $920 million in the 2019 notes. (Anyone sanguine about the ease with which Tesla will be able to raise new capital and/or fund operations and debt service from profits should check out the 2019 notes--trading at 90% of par.)

 

[JRP3]

What factual basis does he have for his assumption that M3 launch will be a full year late?

I think he's simply forgotten that "past performance does not guarantee future results".