Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
If there is one person in the world who is making America great again, it's Elon Musk.
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Sorry for a dislike. Late last year, scot ales got into pumping and lost a lot. A few people will drop from here into the new year. If we all stay to the ground, it will help everyone.
Gerardf
Active Member
Over the DMA50 now. Lets hope we can close above it 
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
CA, not to single you out as I believe you are kind and well-intentioned. You are far from the only person guilty of these types of posts. However, I believe its very important to support statements such as these with facts, or at the very least some background. After purchasing my first Tesla I became a blind enthusiast, coupled with the sometimes overly bullish echo chamber we create here I went bonkers with options. Playing high risk bets with large sums of cash and a certainty that never should have existed. Over the course of 10 months I lost enough to purchase the entire family of Tesla products. I don't blame anyone besides myself, I consider myself all the better for the education, though in hindsight I'd have gladly paid less for it.
We are all here for different reasons, yet to some degree we all see the same thing. An amazing company, with phenomenal management that produces a needed, desired, industry leading product. One that is a surprisingly conservative steward of our capital, yet moves at blinding speed. We have so much to be optimistic about. But that optimism needs to be grounded in reality. We're a family here at TMC (often dysfunctional) I would hate to see anyone repeat the very avoidable mistakes I have made.
I too believe the upside from here is massive. However, assuming I know the timeline on when these moves will occur is beyond hubris and likely self destructive. Please maintain the enthusiasm. If its not too much to ask, add a little background for color and perhaps a disclaimer.
On the measure of the weekly, I do not believe we will exit above $200. However, I'd love to be wrong.
I've said this before but one of the things I love so much about the guy is that his brilliance and vision is coupled with a genuineness, even an awkwardness, that is quite endearing.
The borrowing activity at Fidelity is quite benign today. Probably as an indication of low demand, interest rate dropped back from 3% to 2.25%:
MartinAustin
Active Member
Here is my 2 cents...
Based on current trends, the SP could stay flat this week. Shorting could drive it in the low 190's or even a hair below 190 by Friday. While some uptick in buying is there, it won't be enough to drive the price above $200 without a catalyst. Mid next week, things will get interesting. This is when we will see the "holiday" effect, similar to what was seen during Thanksgiving week:
I postulate that the bulk of short selling has been done by institutions with deep pockets. These guys take long breaks during the holiday. This is the time when the "amateur hour" buying on these low volume days drives the SP up with no news or apparent catalyst. Couple this with chatter of positive Q4 sales and you may see a temporary breach of the 200 barrier after the New Year.
Based on current trends, the SP could stay flat this week. Shorting could drive it in the low 190's or even a hair below 190 by Friday. While some uptick in buying is there, it won't be enough to drive the price above $200 without a catalyst. Mid next week, things will get interesting. This is when we will see the "holiday" effect, similar to what was seen during Thanksgiving week:
I postulate that the bulk of short selling has been done by institutions with deep pockets. These guys take long breaks during the holiday. This is the time when the "amateur hour" buying on these low volume days drives the SP up with no news or apparent catalyst. Couple this with chatter of positive Q4 sales and you may see a temporary breach of the 200 barrier after the New Year.
What is it that feels flaky? How would you assess the progress of these companies respective AV programs as an outsider?
It seems to me that autonomous vehicles are a large machine learning/computer vision problem. Machine learning and computer vision are just a way of saying "automated statistics". If you're trying to use statistics to model a phenomenon, having more data about the phenomenon is clearly better than having less.
Since we can't speak to the quality or quantity of machine learning specialists at Tesla or any other company to assess how anyone is handling the data they're getting, "miles driven on autopilot" seems to be the only proxy for a progress metric that we have, unless you know of one better.
Krugerrand
Meow
Summary: The stock might go up, it might stay flat, or it could go down during the next 7 day period.
Extremely helpful.
Summary: The stock might go up, it might stay flat, or it could go up during the next 7 day period.
Extremely helpful.
I have good feeling we'll see a significant run during the Christmas-New Year week while the big dog short sellers are away spending their ill gotten gains on Kung Fu grip GI Joes for their kids and designer purses for their mistresses.
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Over the DMA50 now. Lets hope we can close above it
Agree. The close will be very important
Krugerrand
Meow
I was just yanking your chain. You did provide a couple of interesting points to consider. But now you've totally ruined that by pulling out the 'I have a good feeling'. Tsk, tsk.
Krugerrand
Meow
Now look what you've done! Can we not all just pretend that we don't notice what's going on for a little bit before opening our mouths and jinxing it?!?!?
was long Tesla briefly until a few moments ago... dumped and reverted to short... whole market is ridiculous right now.
Krugerrand
Meow
Awesome. Now you're on the side I want you to be on. I know, not the holiday spirit you were probably expecting from me, but there it is. I need balance in my life.
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