Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Krugerrand]

#1). "Final Assembly line" is all that matters.

If THIS assembly line is going, then Tesla is IN production.
Stamping, Body weld Lines, & Paint are NOT "critical path"

Disagree. ANY disruption at ANY station throughout the factory has the potential to interrupt production; including final assembly line. Production is only as fast as the slowest segment.

#2. EMPTY Parking Lot pics please.

For the love of God, if we could just get a handful of folks that drive by Fremont daily commute to report when the parking lot is NOT full. This isn't brain surgery folks. Geez. I live it SoCal or I'd do it myself on suspicious days/weeks. Anyone know of any traffic webcams that show the front parking lot?

Right!!! People practically lived just down the road when they were putting in SuperChargers at the old Solyndra? site. There's a huge long thread about it full of pictures.

 

[Krugerrand]

I am definitely offended by that comment! (For those of you not familiar with my avatar breed, it's a Border Collie, a breed specifically bred for herding ability, not looks).

My issue as a feline is that the original comment suggests that I'm uncooperative in a group. No way that's even a little bit true. Right?

 

[kenliles]

True story: the Potato Patch hosted one of the most legendarily rich gold discovery sites in recent centuries. Guess how it got its name.

Home grown Spirits?

 

[MitchJi]

Anyone know of any traffic webcams that show the front parking lot?

You are not thinking big enough!

What we need is a webcam monitoring the new cars leaving the factory .

Maybe we can chip,in to buy the camera and someone going on a tour can set it up for us?

 

[moe.salih]

Elon:
HW2 Autopilot software uploading to 1000 cars this eve. Will then hold to verify no field issues and upload to rest of fleet next week.


Sneaky Elon

 

[MitchJi]

Elon just tweeted:

HW2 Autopilot software uploading to 1000 cars this eve. Will then hold to verify no field issues and upload to rest of fleet next week.

Is that in time to book the revenue? If not does it really matter? Can't they just mention that they have the cash in hand, and that they are trying as hard as they can to get the updates out to customers, because they feel obligated to do so?

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Elon:
HW2 Autopilot software uploading to 1000 cars this eve. Will then hold to verify no field issues and upload to rest of fleet next week.


Sneaky Elon

Assuming those thousand cars are not a beta testing team under nda, what are the odds that a TMC member gets it? Pretty good I think.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Elon just tweeted:

HW2 Autopilot software uploading to 1000 cars this eve. Will then hold to verify no field issues and upload to rest of fleet next week.

Is that in time to book the revenue?

I'm thinking 1000 cars is what it took to make the quarter profitable?

 

[AlMc]

Assuming those thousand cars are not a beta testing team under nda, what are the odds that a TMC member gets it? Pretty good I think.

They don't announce 'beta' testers getting software. this is the real thing.

 

[Navin]

So we can count this software revenue for q4?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

So we can count this software revenue for q4?

I already had it baked into my complex model.

 

[dmckinstry]

Simple, no ball drop on this 'boring' coast of the country Just a re-broadcast of recorded NYC event when it is 12 a.m. PST.

And I'll still be up when the New Year come to NYC, but not when it gets here, so I wouldn't see the announcement of 8.1 anyway.

 

[dc_h]

That's right. 7000 worldwide MS in Dec is good, but not epic since Oct&Nov were much weaker than Q3 , going by InsideEV estimates. MX was 63% of MS last quarter in NA. With that ratio, total would be around 11410 worldwide Dec deliveries. (Now, there is still a day left, so ..) I am a bit surprised, IEV decided to put this out so early this time

Would make Bonaire look pretty good, if the number is 11,400 + 7000 for October/ November.

 

[Waiting4M3]

You are not thinking big enough!

What we need is a webcam monitoring the new cars leaving the factory .

Maybe we can chip,in to buy the camera and someone going on a tour can set it up for us?

If someone from Tesla can hook us up with some state of the art image recognition AI we can even automatically count how many cars are on each truck leaving the factory.

 

[dmckinstry]

My issue as a feline is that the original comment suggests that I'm uncooperative in a group. No way that's even a little bit true. Right?

Yeh. But you're not the "domesticated" variety. They feel they have to go out of their way to prove they're not owned or controlled by anyone.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Would make Bonaire look pretty good, if the number is 11,400 + 7000 for October/ November.

How can they only have 7000 for Oct/Nov when we know they had 5500 on the truck at the end of Q3?

 

[T3slaTulips]

I'm thinking 1000 cars is what it took to make the quarter profitable?

Just a cool $5 million.

 

[racer26]

I'm firmly planted in the camp of "in VIN counting we trust".

We know several things:
1) Both MX and MS are production constrained. Tesla has historically sold every car they've produced. Tesla has not been building cars to let them sit on dealership lots.
2) In general, orders are finalized and issued a VIN shortly before the vehicle is assembled by the factory. There are some exceptions to this, though.
3) Tesla has issued somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-30k VINs this quarter. (Difficult to find reliable data for MX)
4) The VIN tracking data available has a large gap in it where overseas cars should be, in early 4Q16 production, both in terms of numerically and temporally.
5) Many service centers appear to be in full-tilt delivery mode, receiving shipments and delivering cars literally by the truckload.
6) We haven't seen widespread discounting campaigns or aggressive sales tactics as we have in the closing weeks of past quarters.

Based on all of the above, I find it much more believable that we've exceeded guidance, and everyone is breathing easy, than the alternative, which would imply the factory built many more cars than the sales team was able to move, and the company is sitting on thousands of cars of inventory.

 

[Intl Professor]

Still doesn't answer why Frisbee tin tops vacationed on Cape Cod.

Like the rest of us they were victims of an act of God or so I was told until I watched some bees. We found them on the beach; they were weathered Frisbies, however, and so had outlived their purpose.

Also, I would like to ad thanks to you for your splendid moderation after leaving Alaska and before.

One more piece of trivia. There seems to be some concern about your standards and to which of the nouveau threads posts will belong. Political comments on either of the new threads will easily be identified next year as doubly problematic, doubtless because any will super-qualify as a curse. Just a happy thought for the new year.

 

[Green Pete]

You are not thinking big enough!

What we need is a webcam monitoring the new cars leaving the factory .

Maybe we can chip,in to buy the camera and someone going on a tour can set it up for us?

Ya that livestream would last ooooooh. 20 minutes before someone from tesla walks out to shut it diwn