Activists actually had an economic impact? Who knew? Nice for them to notice.
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Wiley E Oily paused in mid-air then realized he was still falling.
I think a real problem for oil is that the price is so driven by investor expectation. If investors believe the price is going to $100, then it keeps driving production up and past the point that demand slows down. Then it has a Wiley E Coyote moment and starts to fall. Then it thinks there is some floor say at Brent $60, but production can't dial back fast enough not does demand react fast enough. So then it keeps falling largely on investor sentiment. It will soon go into full crisis mode and try to bring down the whole global economy with its bearishness. But Wiley E Oily will be back to play the expectation game all over in a year or two.
I really think the only sane approach for oil producers is to hedge future production and let speculators take the fall for their hyped up expectations.
I think a real problem for oil is that the price is so driven by investor expectation. If investors believe the price is going to $100, then it keeps driving production up and past the point that demand slows down. Then it has a Wiley E Coyote moment and starts to fall. Then it thinks there is some floor say at Brent $60, but production can't dial back fast enough not does demand react fast enough. So then it keeps falling largely on investor sentiment. It will soon go into full crisis mode and try to bring down the whole global economy with its bearishness. But Wiley E Oily will be back to play the expectation game all over in a year or two.
I really think the only sane approach for oil producers is to hedge future production and let speculators take the fall for their hyped up expectations.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
BloombergNEF on Twitter
This is encouraging. BNEF has updated their annual estimates of battery prices. The pack-level, volume-weighted, inflation-adjusted average price has fallen from $1160/kWh in 2010 to $176 in 2018. This 85% real decline in 8 years is an average 21%/yr decline. The annual decline in 2018 was 18% which is well in line with the average given volatility in decline rates. In other words, the decline appears to be continuing at 21%/yr.
At this rate, we see $110/kWh by 2020 and $87/ by 2021. This is right in line with what I was extrapolating last year and the year before that. In those years, BNEF was predicting the $100 would come in 2025. They were obviously anticipating that the decline rate would slow down, but it has not.
They have not yet published their forecast. I think to save face they need to pull it in to 2022-23. To be actuate, they need to go with 2020-21. We'll see what they do. 2025 is an embarrassment.
This is encouraging. BNEF has updated their annual estimates of battery prices. The pack-level, volume-weighted, inflation-adjusted average price has fallen from $1160/kWh in 2010 to $176 in 2018. This 85% real decline in 8 years is an average 21%/yr decline. The annual decline in 2018 was 18% which is well in line with the average given volatility in decline rates. In other words, the decline appears to be continuing at 21%/yr.
At this rate, we see $110/kWh by 2020 and $87/ by 2021. This is right in line with what I was extrapolating last year and the year before that. In those years, BNEF was predicting the $100 would come in 2025. They were obviously anticipating that the decline rate would slow down, but it has not.
They have not yet published their forecast. I think to save face they need to pull it in to 2022-23. To be actuate, they need to go with 2020-21. We'll see what they do. 2025 is an embarrassment.
"On Tuesday, Midland-based WTI was trading at about $7.25 to $7.60 below benchmark U.S. crude prices, according to OPIS. The lowest transaction confirmed by OPIS saw Midland crude sell for $40.10 per barrel."
So if a friend offers me a 100 mL sample of Midland crude for Christmas, will that set the WTI price at $0?
Naughtiness will get you a lump of coal. Not sure what you have to do to get a vial of Midland crude.So if a friend offers me a 100 mL sample of Midland crude for Christmas, will that set the WTI price at $0?
Neoen says Tesla big battery to deliver more savings this summer
This is pretty cool. The Hornsdale Power Reserve will be used to extent the transmission interconnection capacity from 600MW to 650MW.
This is pretty cool. The Hornsdale Power Reserve will be used to extent the transmission interconnection capacity from 600MW to 650MW.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We should have running regional "% of value" figures for battery storage. As in....what percent of revenue or value can be directly attributed to storage and storage only? It's probably far lower than anyone would imagine.
In the example above theres the benefit of becoming a transmission buffer. Same project has also shown it's far more valuable as a load balancer than simple storage facility.
In Germany all the wind is up north and they need to get that power south. What's the value of trickling that power south through batteries overnight every night? The cost avoidance of grid and transmission upgrades would be huge.
Nice to see real numbers being put to these activities I never even thought of prior to 2016. In certain regions, the first 10% of battery storage installed will have 5x the value of the last 10%. What a wonderful economic force to help speed adoption.
In the example above theres the benefit of becoming a transmission buffer. Same project has also shown it's far more valuable as a load balancer than simple storage facility.
In Germany all the wind is up north and they need to get that power south. What's the value of trickling that power south through batteries overnight every night? The cost avoidance of grid and transmission upgrades would be huge.
Nice to see real numbers being put to these activities I never even thought of prior to 2016. In certain regions, the first 10% of battery storage installed will have 5x the value of the last 10%. What a wonderful economic force to help speed adoption.
$50 Oil Won’t Kill U.S. Shale | OilPrice.com
US is still on track to increase crude production by 1.2 to 1.3 mb/d in 2019.
EV displacement in 2019 looks to be on scale of 0.2 mb/d. So between US shale and EV growth, supply meets or even exceeds demand growth. So basically unless US producers pull back on production, the oil market will likely not balance in 2019. Basically US shale is imposing on OPEC to cut as much as the US gains. We could be on the verge of a multi-year glut. With EVs growing fast and reaching scale, 2020 might not be any easier for the oil market to balance than 2019.
US is still on track to increase crude production by 1.2 to 1.3 mb/d in 2019.
EV displacement in 2019 looks to be on scale of 0.2 mb/d. So between US shale and EV growth, supply meets or even exceeds demand growth. So basically unless US producers pull back on production, the oil market will likely not balance in 2019. Basically US shale is imposing on OPEC to cut as much as the US gains. We could be on the verge of a multi-year glut. With EVs growing fast and reaching scale, 2020 might not be any easier for the oil market to balance than 2019.
I went to oilprice.com to check the various other prices at different locations.
Williston sweet crude (North Dakota) is at $21. Most of the other US blends are circling $40. Central Montana Crude is $6.54.
There's clearly some transportation issues going on. California grades are over $50.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
"The report was issued by the Chamber’s Global Energy Institute and the Laborers’ International Union of North America."
mspohr
Well-Known Member
obviously they're worried about oil jobs (but don't see the non union solar and wind jobs)
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