Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

[winfield100]

I know that’s about utility solar, but it makes me think... I would love a solar roof, and I wonder... would it be worth maxing out the percentage of energy generating tiles to sell back to the grid on peak days? To charge multiple EVs in the future? To maximize the change of powering the house through the winter?

@ammulder
i'm unsure if it's about utility per se. Richard Perez had article detailing blackout of NE US and parts of Canada way back when, pointing out that blackout could have been avoided by ~1/2 gigawatt of PV, distributed over the region/area
There are 2 Perez's in that article.
Richard has been in field a very long time
as a single data point myself, I went with 37 Enphase IQ7 microinverters and 37, 315 watt Hanwha Q.Peak Duo panels for 11,655 DC, derated 15% to 9,907 AC so I'm Tier 1 under 10 kilowatts (florida) so way less paperwork
my bill went from around $90/$100 per month to $21.69 (minimum charge with connect fee)
HOWEVER, I love swimming in ~87 degree plus pool (arthritis) so I need another 3-5kilowatts PV plus battery since I sell excess electrons at around 2 cents in the day and buy them back at night at ~8.6cents
my PV array 2 years ago cost $2.40/watt ($1.68/watt with 30% US federal tax incentive) and costs are lower
I also store electrons in my PHEV (a car wreck forced me to get a vehicle before I could get a Model 3)

I have always believed in oversizing PV arrays, as the article point out, the energy is _free_
(i made 17.2 megawatt hours in 2019 and 17.4 megawatt hours in 2020)

 

[gavine]

17.4 megawatt hours in 2020

If my math is correct, that's almost 70,000 miles worth of energy on a Model 3

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Circling back to these f$%@ing tanker stocks.....

With all the fun of TSLA, I simply haven't paid attention to Frontline(FRO). My plan was to ride this thru a December dividend then sell the shares high on a 35%+ dividend yield. Well......apparently they decided not to pay a dividend this quarter(after 30% last quarter) for really no reason at all.

$57M profit this quarter vs -$10M same quarter last year, yet they paid a dividend in 2019 and now not 2020. "Uncertainty" has apparently led them to make the decision to "keep the cash". I think these guys(all tankers) are going to make tons of money the next 2-3 years, just doesn't look like investors will see much of it.

Gonna go ahead and sell all shares down 17% from purchase last spring. Including 2 quarters of dividends, I'm about even. To me, this play would have worked nicely if these shady clowns hadn't pulled the plug on dividends(or if the pandemic were ending by now). Ah well, back to simply buying Chevron puts.

 

[Dave EV]

HOWEVER, I love swimming in ~87 degree plus pool (arthritis) so I need another 3-5kilowatts PV plus battery since I sell excess electrons at around 2 cents in the day and buy them back at night at ~8.6cents

Getting off-topic - but if it's cost effective to heat your pool using resistance heating in Florida, that's a game changer. Most pool heating is done with good old solar-hot-water (a solar hot-water collector can be 90% efficient) compared to your typical 20% efficient solar PV these days. But maybe combined with a heat pump in warm Florida weather and having the additional flexibility of being able to use that energy easily for other needs makes it worth it.

When batteries get cheap enough to store energy for < 6.6c / kWh over 10 year lifetime of equipment (your retail difference in cost between exported/imported energy), that's when oil and other fossil fuels will really decline in value.

 

[jhm]

Getting off-topic - but if it's cost effective to heat your pool using resistance heating in Florida, that's a game changer. Most pool heating is done with good old solar-hot-water (a solar hot-water collector can be 90% efficient) compared to your typical 20% efficient solar PV these days. But maybe combined with a heat pump in warm Florida weather and having the additional flexibility of being able to use that energy easily for other needs makes it worth it.

When batteries get cheap enough to store energy for < 6.6c / kWh over 10 year lifetime of equipment (your retail difference in cost between exported/imported energy), that's when oil and other fossil fuels will really decline in value.

I'm looking forward to when Tesla can integrate HVAC, power-packs, etc. with heat pump and octovalve. While you're running the AC to cool the house, you could be warming up the pool. Or when you charging or discharging the battery, you could warm the house.

 

[jhm]

Circling back to these f$%@ing tanker stocks.....

With all the fun of TSLA, I simply haven't paid attention to Frontline(FRO). My plan was to ride this thru a December dividend then sell the shares high on a 35%+ dividend yield. Well......apparently they decided not to pay a dividend this quarter(after 30% last quarter) for really no reason at all.

$57M profit this quarter vs -$10M same quarter last year, yet they paid a dividend in 2019 and now not 2020. "Uncertainty" has apparently led them to make the decision to "keep the cash". I think these guys(all tankers) are going to make tons of money the next 2-3 years, just doesn't look like investors will see much of it.

Gonna go ahead and sell all shares down 17% from purchase last spring. Including 2 quarters of dividends, I'm about even. To me, this play would have worked nicely if these shady clowns hadn't pulled the plug on dividends(or if the pandemic were ending by now). Ah well, back to simply buying Chevron puts.

Wow, why would they pay a 30% or higher dividend in the first place? It seems a stock buyback could have done a better job of stabilizing share price and stabilizing the yield.

 

[winfield100]

Getting off-topic - but if it's cost effective to heat your pool using resistance heating in Florida, that's a game changer. Most pool heating is done with good old solar-hot-water (a solar hot-water collector can be 90% efficient) compared to your typical 20% efficient solar PV these days. But maybe combined with a heat pump in warm Florida weather and having the additional flexibility of being able to use that energy easily for other needs makes it worth it.

When batteries get cheap enough to store energy for < 6.6c / kWh over 10 year lifetime of equipment (your retail difference in cost between exported/imported energy), that's when oil and other fossil fuels will really decline in value.

it's not resistnce heating, it a 156,000BTU air heat pump. (i should combine it with solar hot water maybe )
i have clamps around the mains and solar lines to monitor current using Sense.
the pool heater uses a tad bit more than PV which is why I need maybe 25 - 40% more electrons discreetly

 

[Dave EV]

it's not resistnce heating, it a 156,000BTU air heat pump. (i should combine it with solar hot water maybe )

Nice! Didn't know ASHP pool heaters were a thing. Typical COP values of 4-6 look pretty good. Around here most either use natural gas or regular solar hot-water for heating pools, but I bet that ASHP works great in Florida where it's warm all the time.

If you are able to keep the pool warm enough during the day when ambient temperatures are warm and the COP of the heat pump is high, then you're actually probably better off with solar PV than. Even down to 50F the COP appears to be 4+, with 20% efficient panels that like 80% efficient solar hot-water collectors. Bye-bye natural gas heater!

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm looking forward to when Tesla can integrate HVAC, power-packs, etc. with heat pump and octovalve. While you're running the AC to cool the house, you could be warming up the pool. Or when you charging or discharging the battery, you could warm the house.

That would be great. My last home had a pool and even with a heat pump based heater it was still crazy expensive to heat it.

I don't think the Tesla system could address this but the refrigerator is another one that annoys me. In the winter you are heating your house, then cooling the inside of a box (waste heat offsets some of that but still). In the summer you are cooling your house and then dumping fridge waste heat back into your kitchen instead of venting to the outside.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't think the Tesla system could address this but the refrigerator is another one that annoys me. In the winter you are heating your house, then cooling the inside of a box (waste heat offsets some of that but still).

And there's a heating element inside your fridge under the butter dish to keep it softer. In case you weren't annoyed enough....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Saudi Arabia doubling down on the "supply cuts" angle, not good. This should cause a massive pop in US production and a craaaaaazy oversupply situation on the other side of this OPEC+ cut.

What then happens when they realize the only logical means to maximize revenue is to maximize output and drive everyone out of the market? Perhaps a nice long run of $10/barrel Brent pricing. Gonna be WILD!

Oil extends gains after surprise Saudi output cut

So how does one play this? Should I start selling $44 barrels of oil for December 2025? Certainly there's a dip to $10 between now and then....

 

[navguy12]

And there's a heating element inside your fridge under the butter dish to keep it softer. In case you weren't annoyed enough....

And another one to defrost the freezer .

 

[mspohr]

And another one to defrost the freezer .

... and another one around the door seal to prevent frost and condensation

 

[Dave EV]

That would be great. My last home had a pool and even with a heat pump based heater it was still crazy expensive to heat it.

I don't think the Tesla system could address this but the refrigerator is another one that annoys me. In the winter you are heating your house, then cooling the inside of a box (waste heat offsets some of that but still). In the summer you are cooling your house and then dumping fridge waste heat back into your kitchen instead of venting to the outside.

I think the Tesla system could apply, but it would require you to plumb your house with a heat-transfer system - the vehicle does this using coolant and coolant lines between the motors, battery pack and heat-pump, for example.

So in your house, you would need coolant lines between your fridge, water heater, indoor heat exchanger. You possibly might want an outdoor coolant heat exchanger, too.

... and another one around the door seal to prevent frost and condensation

Don't forget the heater for the automatic ice maker (loosens up the ice before dumping into the basket). Burned my hand on that before and was thinking "WTF is something so hot in the freezer!"

 

[jhm]

Saudi Arabia doubling down on the "supply cuts" angle, not good. This should cause a massive pop in US production and a craaaaaazy oversupply situation on the other side of this OPEC+ cut.

What then happens when they realize the only logical means to maximize revenue is to maximize output and drive everyone out of the market? Perhaps a nice long run of $10/barrel Brent pricing. Gonna be WILD!

Oil extends gains after surprise Saudi output cut

So how does one play this? Should I start selling $44 barrels of oil for December 2025? Certainly there's a dip to $10 between now and then....

Hmm, let's see if I get this right. You could sell a contract to supply a number of barrels in 2025. First you take in $44 per barrel and buy shares of Tesla. Then in 2025 you sell some shares of Tesla to buy oil so to fulfill your contract. Awesome.

 

[adiggs]

Hmm, let's see if I get this right. You could sell a contract to supply a number of barrels in 2025. First you take in $44 per barrel and buy shares of Tesla. Then in 2025 you sell some shares of Tesla to buy oil so to fulfill your contract. Awesome.

Sure does sound like a dream setup. I've seen one of these before - it took me 2 weeks of poking at it to satisfy myself that it wasn't actually too good to be true (because most of the time, if it looks too good to be true, it is).

Sure does look appealing though - it might be time to do some research on oil futures.

 

[jhm]

Sure does sound like a dream setup. I've seen one of these before - it took me 2 weeks of poking at it to satisfy myself that it wasn't actually too good to be true (because most of the time, if it looks too good to be true, it is).

Sure does look appealing though - it might be time to do some research on oil futures.

One EMP event could send us right back to the oil age.

 

[mspohr]

Trump Admin Trying To Force Banks To Finance Fossil Fuel Projects — Wall Street's Pissed

The rule proposed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency two weeks after Trump’s defeat in the November election would prohibit lenders from not serving legal businesses they deem to pose a reputational risk, such as those in the oil, prison, and firearms industries.


The reputational risk posed by financing fossil fuels is also a primary focus of the BankFWD initiative launched by wealthy scions of the Rockefeller oil fortune.


The proposed rule comes as major banks are pledging to cut their lending to industries that contribute to climate change — every major US bank has refused to finance drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Further, the Federal Reserve named climate change as a risk to financial stability in early November.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Banks are refusing to finance fossil fuel project because there's no money in it. Period.

Since when do banks actually care about reputation? This is all fluff IMO.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol.....

Big Oil Skips Trump’s Last-Minute Arctic Drilling-Rights Auction

https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.amppr...in-rare-auction-of-arctic-oil-drilling-rights

Congress mandated two coastal plain oil auctions by Dec. 22, 2024, as a way to pay for the 2017 tax cuts, based on expectations that the lease sales and oil development would yield more than $2 billion in revenues over a decade.

Bidders in Wednesday’s sale were required to offer at least $25 per acre. With tracts ranging in size from 23,446 to 59,410 acres (9,488 to 24,042 hectares), the smallest possible winning bid is $586,150.