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mspohr
Well-Known Member
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Global oil demand 'could exceed pre-Covid levels without clean energy moves'
The world’s oil demand could exceed pre-Covid 19 levels within the next two years unless concrete government action and legislation leads to a much stronger move towards clean energy, according to the International Energy Agency. Figures from the global energy watchdog threaten to dash hopes that the world’s consumption of oil may have peaked in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic caused oil demand to plummet by 9m barrels a day.The world’s oil demand could exceed pre-Covid 19 levels within the next two years unless concrete government action and legislation leads to a much stronger move towards clean energy, according to the International Energy Agency. Figures from the global energy watchdog threaten to dash hopes that the world’s consumption of oil may have peaked in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic caused oil demand to plummet by 9m barrels a day.
The IEA agreed that overall oil demand in advanced economies – which is much higher per capita than developing countries – is unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels, in part because of the growing uptake of electric vehicles and other green transport options. However, about 90% of the world’s growing oil demand in the next five years will be driven by countries in Asia, albeit at a slower pace than before the pandemic, and will be underpinned by rising populations and incomes.
The world’s oil demand could exceed pre-Covid 19 levels within the next two years unless concrete government action and legislation leads to a much stronger move towards clean energy, according to the International Energy Agency. Figures from the global energy watchdog threaten to dash hopes that the world’s consumption of oil may have peaked in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic caused oil demand to plummet by 9m barrels a day.The world’s oil demand could exceed pre-Covid 19 levels within the next two years unless concrete government action and legislation leads to a much stronger move towards clean energy, according to the International Energy Agency. Figures from the global energy watchdog threaten to dash hopes that the world’s consumption of oil may have peaked in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic caused oil demand to plummet by 9m barrels a day.
The IEA agreed that overall oil demand in advanced economies – which is much higher per capita than developing countries – is unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels, in part because of the growing uptake of electric vehicles and other green transport options. However, about 90% of the world’s growing oil demand in the next five years will be driven by countries in Asia, albeit at a slower pace than before the pandemic, and will be underpinned by rising populations and incomes.
Not surprising they're worried, given that they don't believe renewables will increase much.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Lol....that's just an IEA supply narrative to boost pricing. Back in reality, last week's crude supply report is out and we're back over 500M barrels of supply(glut). Strange considering WTI pricing has essentially doubled since November and imports are still so low.
Surely we won't see a monumental glut in global crude supplies when all these $65 WTI contracts get fracked and pumped in 3 months.
Edit: With Europe locking down and OPEC+ making seemingly unkeepable promises....it may be a decent time to short Brent/WTI. Still unclear if there's a good vehicle for such a position. I guess you could just sell barrels of Dec2022 crude.
Edit edit: Again.....how do we STILL not have a TMC shorting oil hedge fund??? Anyone know how that's done?
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
Yeah - if I were in the business of mining oil I would be selling as many of those $65 contracts at any expiration as I could. Hedge every barrel I mine and then some extra for expansion or just plain profit.
I guess we'll know there is a lot of that going on if the longer dated oil contracts go into Backwardation.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Gasoline demand rebounds to nearly normal March levels, according to latest GasBuddy data
U.S. gasoline demand is recovering as Americans hit the road.
I posted this in the Energy&Environment sub, but it could be interesting here too.
An older steel producer and a startup in Sweden are investing in green steel. They plans to replace coal in steel production with H2, the byproduct will be H2O instead of CO2. Also use green energy production, we have almost only hydropower, wind and some nuclear in Sweden. This could be a reasonable use of H2.
Fossil free steel
The world´s first fossil-free steel from SSAB is ready for the market on a commercial scale in 2026. Become a partner for change with us today!www.ssab.com
H2 Green Steel
H2 Green Steel will produce green steel, reducing CO₂ emissions with up to 95 percent compared to traditional steelmaking.www.h2greensteel.com
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Gizmodo: The Fossil Fuel Industry Would Be Screwed Without the U.S. Government Propping It Up. Fossil Fuels Would Be Screwed Without U.S. Government Propping Them Up
Conservatives have long argued against regulating fossil fuel production for the climate’s sake, claiming that doing so would interfere with the holy free market. A new study shows that’s a total fairy tale because the invisible hand isn’t responsible for dirty fuels’ market dominance—implicit government subsidies are. The findings show those subsidies total in the billions each year.
Conservatives have long argued against regulating fossil fuel production for the climate’s sake, claiming that doing so would interfere with the holy free market. A new study shows that’s a total fairy tale because the invisible hand isn’t responsible for dirty fuels’ market dominance—implicit government subsidies are. The findings show those subsidies total in the billions each year.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Big banks’ trillion-dollar finance for fossil fuels ‘shocking’, says report
The world’s biggest 60 banks have provided $3.8tn of financing for fossil fuel companies since the Paris climate deal in 2015, according to a report by a coalition of NGOs. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic cutting energy use, overall funding remains on an upward trend and the finance provided in 2020 was higher than in 2016 or 2017, a fact the report’s authors and others described as “shocking”. Oil, gas and coal will need to be burned for some years to come. But it has been known since at least 2015 that a significant proportion of existing reserves must remain in the ground if global heating is to remain below 2C, the main Paris target. Financing for new reserves is therefore the “exact opposite” of what is required to tackle the climate crisis, the report’s authors said.
The world’s biggest 60 banks have provided $3.8tn of financing for fossil fuel companies since the Paris climate deal in 2015, according to a report by a coalition of NGOs. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic cutting energy use, overall funding remains on an upward trend and the finance provided in 2020 was higher than in 2016 or 2017, a fact the report’s authors and others described as “shocking”. Oil, gas and coal will need to be burned for some years to come. But it has been known since at least 2015 that a significant proportion of existing reserves must remain in the ground if global heating is to remain below 2C, the main Paris target. Financing for new reserves is therefore the “exact opposite” of what is required to tackle the climate crisis, the report’s authors said.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Why would that be shocking? It's literally 80% of the reason banks exist in their current form, lubricating a finite energy world for transaction fees.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
On a related note.....US crude stockpiles are creeping up yet again. 502M barrels and counting in the commercial stockpiles last week. Strange given the narrative that supplies are so tight and the fact we're now importing essentially zero crude from Saudi Arabia.
With Europe locking down for Easter, we should see some major reversals in these absurd oil futures markets. If Asia doesn't save the day and soak up half the glut, it could be real bad.
With Europe locking down for Easter, we should see some major reversals in these absurd oil futures markets. If Asia doesn't save the day and soak up half the glut, it could be real bad.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
We know they have no conscience. However, their greed blinds them to the risks of stranded assets.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Reuters: Breakingviews - Exxon-Chevron deal could help kill fossil fuels. Breakingviews - Exxon-Chevron deal could help kill fossil fuels
NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) - A mega-merger between Exxon Mobil and Chevron doesn’t have to be about creating a crushing oil company. In fact, it’s possible that a deal between the fossil fuel giants actually hastens the transition to cleaner power sources. Regulators have some levers to pull to make it happen.
NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) - A mega-merger between Exxon Mobil and Chevron doesn’t have to be about creating a crushing oil company. In fact, it’s possible that a deal between the fossil fuel giants actually hastens the transition to cleaner power sources. Regulators have some levers to pull to make it happen.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Biden eyes tax hikes for rich, ending funding for infrastructure
"It's time for the rich and corporations to pay their fair share in taxes."
www.salon.com
To help fund President Joe Biden's forthcoming $3 trillion infrastructure proposal, the White House is reportedly considering ending federal subsidies for fossil fuel companies and increasing taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Green investing 'is definitely not going to work’, says ex-BlackRock executive
“I have looked inside the machine and I can tell you business does not have this,” Tariq told the Guardian. “Not because these are bad people but because they run for-profit machines that will operate exactly as you would expect them to do,” said Fancy.
Investors have a fiduciary duty to maximise returns to their clients and as long as there is money to be made in activities that contribute to global warming, no amount of rhetoric about the need for sustainable investing will change that, he believes.
“I don’t think the public realizes we are not talking about stopping climate change,” he said. “We are literally talking about selling assets so we don’t get caught up in the damage when it hits.”
But for Fancy the overarching point is that real change has to be led by government, not Wall Street.
“I have looked inside the machine and I can tell you business does not have this,” Tariq told the Guardian. “Not because these are bad people but because they run for-profit machines that will operate exactly as you would expect them to do,” said Fancy.
Investors have a fiduciary duty to maximise returns to their clients and as long as there is money to be made in activities that contribute to global warming, no amount of rhetoric about the need for sustainable investing will change that, he believes.
“I don’t think the public realizes we are not talking about stopping climate change,” he said. “We are literally talking about selling assets so we don’t get caught up in the damage when it hits.”
But for Fancy the overarching point is that real change has to be led by government, not Wall Street.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
The Powerful New Financial Argument for Fossil-Fuel Divestment
A report by BlackRock, the world’s largest investment house, shows that those who divested have profited not only morally but also financially.
In places, BlackRock’s findings are redacted, so as not to show the size of particular holdings, but the conclusions are clear: after examining “divestment actions by hundreds of funds worldwide,” the BlackRock analysts concluded that the portfolios “experienced no negative financial impacts from divesting from fossil fuels. In fact, they found evidence of modest improvement in fund return.” The report’s executive summary states that “no investors found negative performance from divestment; rather, neutral to positive results.” In the conclusion to the report, the BlackRock team used the phrase beloved of investors: divested portfolios “outperformed their benchmarks.”
What would happen if the world’s largest investment firm issued that advice and its clients followed it? Fifteen trillion dollars plus twenty-five trillion is a lot of money. It’s roughly twice the size of the current U.S. economy. It’s almost half the size of the total world economy. It would show that a report issued by a small London think tank a decade ago had turned the financial world’s view of climate upside down.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Biden Tax Plan Targets Fossil Fuel Subsidies Worth $35 Billion
President Joe Biden’s plan to eliminate subsidies claimed by oil and gas companies and raise levies on corporate polluters would increase government receipts by $35 billion over the coming decade.
www.bloomberg.com
“The main impact would be on oil and gas company profits,” the Treasury said in the report. “Research suggests little impact on gasoline or energy prices for U.S. consumers and little impact on our energy security.”
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
OXY upgraded today for god knows what reason, up 6% to $25.75. This upgrade and the reopening traders should push it back up to it's post-covid highs of $30-32, maybe even closer to it's pre-covid level of $42. Then it's a prime target for longs puts. I'm targeting the 4th of July to start.
OXY is leveraged beyond belief and should be in the earliest batch of mega-failures. 40-something billion in debt.
OXY is leveraged beyond belief and should be in the earliest batch of mega-failures. 40-something billion in debt.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Oil firm bosses’ pay ‘incentivises them to undermine climate action’
Lucrative pay and share options linked to continued extraction of fossil fuels by ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and BP
www.theguardian.com
Lucrative pay and share options have created an incentive for oil company executives to resist climate action, according to a study that casts doubt on recent net-zero commitments by BP and Shell.
Compensation packages for CEOs, often in excess of $10m (£7.2m), are linked to continued extraction of fossil fuels, exploration of new fields and the promotion of strong market demand through advertising, lobbying and government subsidies, the report says.
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