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This article discusses what long-term effects CV19 might have on CO2 emissions.

The epidemic provides a chance to do good by the climate



[...]

In 2009, worldwide CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production dropped by 1.4%. A year later, however, they were growing again by 5.8-5.9%—faster than they had done since 2003. By the end of 2010, annual emissions were greater than they had ever been (see chart). Overall, therefore, the financial crisis made little difference to the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere.

[...]

[...] there are signs of a similar pattern of environmentally inappropriate stimuli happening now. Canada, for instance, is preparing a multibillion-dollar bail-out for its oil and gas industry. Airlines are clamouring for help, too. Several Chinese provinces have announced plans to go on a 25trn yuan ($3.5trn) construction-spending spree. And other ideas that have been floated in China include vouchers to encourage people to buy cars.

Meanwhile, an analysis by BloombergNEF, a clean-energy-research firm, finds that solar power may take a hit, as governments preoccupied with fighting the virus postpone decisions to commission new plants and to agree on targets for the growth of renewable energy. China, indeed, has already deferred an auction for the right to build several huge solar farms. As a result, BloombergNEF suggests, for the first time in decades the amount of solar-energy capacity installed this year could be lower than that in the previous one.

[...]​
 
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It's interesting that starting around 2012 was the only time where there was a serious (almost continuous) slowing in the growth of emissions without a crisis associated with it! This time it might truly be different.


This article discusses what long-term effects CV19 might have on CO2 emissions.

The epidemic provides a chance to do good by the climate



[...]

In 2009, worldwide CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production dropped by 1.4%. A year later, however, they were growing again by 5.8-5.9%—faster than they had done since 2003. By the end of 2010, annual emissions were greater than they had ever been (see chart). Overall, therefore, the financial crisis made little difference to the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere.

[...]

[...] there are signs of a similar pattern of environmentally inappropriate stimuli happening now. Canada, for instance, is preparing a multibillion-dollar bail-out for its oil and gas industry. Airlines are clamouring for help, too. Several Chinese provinces have announced plans to go on a 25trn yuan ($3.5trn) construction-spending spree. And other ideas that have been floated in China include vouchers to encourage people to buy cars.

Meanwhile, an analysis by BloombergNEF, a clean-energy-research firm, finds that solar power may take a hit, as governments preoccupied with fighting the virus postpone decisions to commission new plants and to agree on targets for the growth of renewable energy. China, indeed, has already deferred an auction for the right to build several huge solar farms. As a result, BloombergNEF suggests, for the first time in decades the amount of solar-energy capacity installed this year could be lower than that in the previous one.

[...]​
 
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Here's a nifty chart of Brent futures curves.
chart (5).png

The curve has inverted over the past 6 months. The market is now paying investors to hold inventory. You can by a barrel for about $28 and sell a future for $40. You pock the spread of $12 minus your cost of storage.

As the storage capacity becomes more scarce and the market remains oversupplied, we can watch this curve become steeper. The spread to store oil should go up. The increasing spread can be essential to motivating investors to develop additional capacity.

I wonder what China is doing with their SPR since the market is willing to pay China to fill it up.
 
Here is one way the US Federal Government could finance economic relief for the pandemic. The government could auction off leases to use the spare capacity of the US SPR. This would enable traders to buy a lease so that they can trade oil futures. The government gets the lease payment upfront to fund economic bailout. But also the oil industry gets some price support on a market pricing basis.

The alternative, however, is that government buys the oil and stores it indefinitely. In this situation, the government must issue debt raise funds upfront and can suffer loss if the price of oil remains low. Leasing would be much smarter because the government gets cash upfront (to offset issuing debt) and suffers no market risk whatever happens to the price of oil in the future. Basically the gov could get about $10 per barrel-year lease risk free, instead of adding $26 to the national debt to buy a barrel of WTI crude and subject tax payers to market risk.

As financially prudent as leasing capacity might seem, I thoroughly expect this administration to do the opposite. Because, using public funds to fill the SPR is a direct subsidy to the global oil industry.

chart (6).png
 
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Oil hits US$5. Why pumps will stay open if prices turn negative

A barrel of Canadian oil is now worth less than a nice latte or a fast food combo, falling to about US$5 on Friday. With no relief in sight from the impacts of COVID-19 and the Saudi-Russian oil war, negative prices could be on the horizon.

Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude, the main grade produced in Canada’s energy patch, fell to a record low of US$5.03 on Friday, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2008. The steep decline has energy experts considering another unpleasant rarity for oil.

“I would have never considered it before. But in the current context, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities now.” “There is no reason to think that oil prices couldn’t go negative for a period of time,” Raymond James analyst Jeremy McCrea told Yahoo Finance Canada. “I would have never considered it before. But in the current context, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities now.”
 
This has probably already been covered, but Australia recently agreed in principle to lease capacity at the SPR, in order to fulfill its obligation to the IEA for reserve oil storage. Prices apparently haven't been finalized.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...s-emergency-oil-supplies-20200307-p547t1.html

I like the idea of auctioning off SPR storage rights.
This is interesting. It seems good for the US. But I does seem to weaken the notion of a SPR for Australia to have reserves in the US. One only has to envision a crisis where shipping between the US and Australia is disrupted to see how such an arrangement could be meaningless to the population in Australia. This seems to lack critical "strategic" value in a range of scenarios.
 
Oil rig closures rising as prices hit 18-year lows

Oil rig closures rising as prices hit 18-year lows

Global oil producers have begun shutting down their oil rigs on the largest scale in 35 years as the coronavirus continues to drive market prices to their lowest level since 2002.

Goldman Sachs estimates that global oil demand has fallen 25% in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak and the price of Brent crude could fall to lows of $20 a barrel. Saudi Arabia will begin pumping record levels of crude from April.
 
Oil hits US$5. Why pumps will stay open if prices turn negative

A barrel of Canadian oil is now worth less than a nice latte or a fast food combo, falling to about US$5 on Friday. With no relief in sight from the impacts of COVID-19 and the Saudi-Russian oil war, negative prices could be on the horizon.

Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude, the main grade produced in Canada’s energy patch, fell to a record low of US$5.03 on Friday, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2008. The steep decline has energy experts considering another unpleasant rarity for oil.

“I would have never considered it before. But in the current context, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities now.” “There is no reason to think that oil prices couldn’t go negative for a period of time,” Raymond James analyst Jeremy McCrea told Yahoo Finance Canada. “I would have never considered it before. But in the current context, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities now.”
If you scan through the prices in the link below right now, you can find number of North American crude prices below $10/b. These are typically sour varieties.
Brent Crude Oil Price Charts | Oilprice.com
 
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Oil rig closures rising as prices hit 18-year lows

Oil rig closures rising as prices hit 18-year lows

Global oil producers have begun shutting down their oil rigs on the largest scale in 35 years as the coronavirus continues to drive market prices to their lowest level since 2002.

Goldman Sachs estimates that global oil demand has fallen 25% in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak and the price of Brent crude could fall to lows of $20 a barrel. Saudi Arabia will begin pumping record levels of crude from April.
I think all drilling rigs in NA should be shut down already. The crews should stay at home and help slow the spread of the Covid19. This is not essential work in the context of global demand falling 20 mb/d, at least 4 times faster than a years worth of natural decline. In deed, it is only economically damaging to keep drilling right now.
 
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I think all drilling rigs in NA should be shut down already. The crews should stay at home and help slow the spread of the Covid19. This is not essential work in the context of global demand falling 20 mb/d, at least 4 times faster than a years worth of natural decline. In deed, it is only economically damaging to keep drilling right now.
I think the article was referring to oil production rigs, not drilling

The shutdown of oil wells has already wiped out almost 1m barrels a day from global production, but the figure is expected to rise as producers run out of space to store their extra oil as the crisis continues.
 
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'Tanker Tantrum' - How Crude's Record Contango Has Created "Greatest Trade In Decades"

Found this article discussing contango in the oil market, and how people are playing it. This is apparently the best of times for people buying oil and storing it for later delivery. And that translates into the best of times for people that own tankers.

The article also does some rounded math on the size of over production of oil for the next 2-4 months to get an idea of just how this 'wave' is going to play out shorter term, and then further out.


For those that haven't encountered the term contango before, the article also represents a very readable description of what it is, as well as how the big trading houses at least make use of it (hard for us as retail investors).
 
'Tanker Tantrum' - How Crude's Record Contango Has Created "Greatest Trade In Decades"

Found this article discussing contango in the oil market, and how people are playing it. This is apparently the best of times for people buying oil and storing it for later delivery. And that translates into the best of times for people that own tankers.

The article also does some rounded math on the size of over production of oil for the next 2-4 months to get an idea of just how this 'wave' is going to play out shorter term, and then further out.


For those that haven't encountered the term contango before, the article also represents a very readable description of what it is, as well as how the big trading houses at least make use of it (hard for us as retail investors).
That's all well and good, but we're still sitting at starting line if all this. What happens to crude pricing when Iran attacks a weakened Saudi royal family and starts a real war? Or what about when every US and Canadian small oil producer folds?

Remember.....we're on the other side of peak scarcity now. Up is down!
 
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