SLS - On the Scent of Inevitable Capitulation

[adiggs]

And the IG reporting today how the cost overruns are healthy: NASA inspector general says SLS moon rocket costs continue to climb – Spaceflight Now

I didn't see anything in the article to indicate the IG thought the cost overruns were healthy. I didn't see the article taking a position on the costs one way or the other - reading between the lines, I took the quote in the article to indicate the IG wasn't thrilled at the rate of overspending.

Ignoring the interpretation, the article has a lot of info on the SLS costs. I think once I get into billions, I get sort of numb - SLS is up into the 20's of billions by the time they launch (1st or 2nd time); that's crazy. Especially if SpaceX gets to the moon with more mass, without government help (to speak of), before the US can swing it. Talk about a bad look.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I didn't see anything in the article to indicate the IG thought the cost overruns were healthy. I didn't see the article taking a position on the costs one way or the other - reading between the lines, I took the quote in the article to indicate the IG wasn't thrilled at the rate of overspending.

Ignoring the interpretation, the article has a lot of info on the SLS costs. I think once I get into billions, I get sort of numb - SLS is up into the 20's of billions by the time they launch (1st or 2nd time); that's crazy. Especially if SpaceX gets to the moon with more mass, without government help (to speak of), before the US can swing it. Talk about a bad look.

Yes, but the morons in Congress are shameless. And the voters apparently don't care.

 

[e-FTW]

Yes, but the morons in Congress are shameless. And the voters apparently don't care.

They would care if someone explains it in clear terms. And I think this will happen when Starship flies live on the Internet.

 

[mspohr]

They would care if someone explains it in clear terms. And I think this will happen when Starship flies live on the Internet.

That assumes they are not corrupted by corporate donations.

 

[Nikxice]

They would care if someone explains it in clear terms. And I think this will happen when Starship flies live on the Internet.

I've asked quite a few of the average Joe types their thoughts about NASA and SpaceX. In general they're in a total fog. SLS/Artemis isn't even on their radar. Some are familiar with clips of a SpaceX F9 booster landing, many are not. Confusion reigns when people try to distinguish between NASA and SpaceX. Reminds me of those who can't separate USPS from UPS, they're the same right? Jimmy Kimmel could probably have a field day asking the "Man on the Street" if they think Elon is doing a good job running NASA.

As @bxr140 and probably others have said, NASA will likely toss at least one or two SLS rockets in the drink before the expensive absurdity ends. Successful and attention getting Starship launches will likely raise SLS questions, I just hope they get more play beyond the internet. CNN will certainly cover, probably Fox too. One or two launches will be found sandwiched somewhere on the nightly news shows. After that TV viewer numbers drop fast. Bill Harwood will be covering on CBSN, but there's not too many home over there. However, the launch of the first Starship astronauts? That'll draw be a huge draw to help seal the fate of SLS.

 

[bxr140]

However, the launch of the first Starship astronauts? That'll draw be a huge draw to help seal the fate of SLS.

I think this is spot on. Falcon crew will catch a few headlines and will raise a few flags, but it will be easily dismissed by anyone with any real authority on the matter, on grounds that its way smaller than SLS. Starship will need a number of successful crew launches before anyone really takes it seriously.

In parallel NG will [hopefully] come online providing the US two super heavy lifters, both ensuring the retirement of SLS as well as allowing Shelby to cook up some face-saving "job done for 'merica" retirement schpiel.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I think this is spot on. Falcon crew will catch a few headlines and will raise a few flags, but it will be easily dismissed by anyone with any real authority on the matter, on grounds that its way smaller than SLS. Starship will need a number of successful crew launches before anyone really takes it seriously.

In parallel NG will [hopefully] come online providing the US two super heavy lifters, both ensuring the retirement of SLS as well as allowing Shelby to cook up some face-saving "job done for 'merica" retirement schpiel.

Don't forget that after some number of crewed Starship launches to LEO, I'd expect there will be an astronaut only lunar fly by to validate it is safe for Dear Moon passengers. If SpaceX can get someone to manage the PR properly, DM will raise public awareness of space exploration hugely. I qualify that way because without someone like that in charge, DM could be a hot mess rather than an inspiration.

 

[Nikxice]

Washington Post, Business Insider, and many others are reporting today on Boeing's cut of the federal stimulus package. Quoting from a CNN article.

"(CNN)Boeing, which recently asked lawmakers for a massive financial aid package to prop up its industry, could qualify for a special $17 billion slice of the proposed $2 trillion stimulus package.
It's not clear, however, whether the company would actually take the funds."

I suppose the federal government figures Boeing is to big to fail. Perhaps that's true. The argument is that failure would deal a crippling blow to the U.S. economy, potentially putting hundreds of suppliers out of business. Last week I read Boeing was initially looking for around 60 billion. Most of those funds would likely be targeted toward their troubled commercial airline business. However I find it difficult to overlook the waste at Boeing's aerospace division. Up to now 17 billion would give Boeing a double paycheck for their cost plus SLS development. It could also buy them another 40 Starliner Orbital Flight Tests, probably enough to make it safe.
Boeing could receive billions from stimulus package - CNNPolitics

 

[RDoc]

Unfortunately, IMHO this is another case like the auto industry in 2009. They suck, but they employ a lot of people and play a large part in the overall US economy.

One difference though may be that there were no buyers available for the auto companies, banks weren't lending to anyone because they didn't trust them so interest rates were very high. Now though, interest rates are near zero so it might be possible to find a buyer if Boeing were allowed to go into bankruptcy. I don't know how realistic that is though. Plus, whoever bought Boeing likely would be mainly interested in liquidating it.

 

[e-FTW]

New GAO report: New report says SLS rocket managers concerned about fuel leaks

 

[adiggs]

Unfortunately, IMHO this is another case like the auto industry in 2009. They suck, but they employ a lot of people and play a large part in the overall US economy.

One difference though may be that there were no buyers available for the auto companies, banks weren't lending to anyone because they didn't trust them so interest rates were very high. Now though, interest rates are near zero so it might be possible to find a buyer if Boeing were allowed to go into bankruptcy. I don't know how realistic that is though. Plus, whoever bought Boeing likely would be mainly interested in liquidating it.

What could you get from liquidating Boeing?

My sense of things is that what makes the company valuable are the skills, the process, the stuff they know how to make. I can see Boeing going into bankruptcy, but I'd expect it to be a reorganization - bad for shareholders, haircut for lenders, reset the capital structure, and keep on going building planes.


Heck - if a bankruptcy included ditching the financial engineering CEO and accountants that took over, and get engineering management back in charge, maybe Boeing can come back.

 

[Grendal]

EA has a video comparing SLS and Starship.

 

[ecarfan]

NASA will pay a staggering $146 million for each SLS rocket engine

Eric Berger points out that a single SLS first stage engine costs $146 million and 4 are thrown away with every launch, while a single more powerful Raptor engine costs $1 million (and going down) and will be reused many times.

WTF.

 

[e-FTW]

NASA will pay a staggering $146 million for each SLS rocket engine

Eric Berger points out that a single SLS first stage engine costs $146 million and 4 are thrown away with every launch, while a single more powerful Raptor engine costs $1 million (and going down) and will be reused many times.

WTF.

I just had to laugh... Wow.

 

[e-FTW]

And Eric is not being that subtle with his pork-barrel references!

Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. So how come no one has taken the Space Launch System rocket behind the woodshed yet?

 

[ecarfan]

It is always refreshing to see someone being willing point out that the emperor has no clothes. Especially these days...

 

[mspohr]

It is always refreshing to see someone being willing point out that the emperor has no clothes. Especially these days...

The problem is that there is no capacity left for outrage given all the stuff that is happening these days.

 

[e-FTW]

Tim made a really good point that made me realize that some of the hate I send the way of SLS is not fully warranted: it is a darn good program in one critical area, that is not getting canceled and surviving election cycles and different administrations.
The risks SpaceX can take would never, ever make it in a tax-payer funded program. Just imagine the outrage we would have seen when Mk1 and SN1-2-3- blew up.
Am still a #ShinyRocketGood fanboy, but am also a #TeamSpace person.

 

[bxr140]

I just had to laugh... Wow.

Indeed. Even normalizing for financial apples-to-apples rack up for SpaceX's this-is-our-forecasted-pipe-dream-number-that-creates-buzz vs the dead-to-the-world cost plus beancounters at Rocketdyne, its impossible to reconcile the difference in cost.

I realize this is no new news, but the political side of this kind of *sugar* is especially frustrating. If you're going to champion for massive government spending don't also pretend you're against Big Government.

Unfortunately, as Elon continues down this path of Howard Hughes 2.0, this is all going to get more difficult to ferret out reality.

 

[ecarfan]

Unfortunately, as Elon continues down this path of Howard Hughes 2.0, this is all going to get more difficult to ferret out reality.

Yes, I am getting concerned about him. He needs to stay focused and keep his head in the game and not rant on Twitter about issues that he lacks professional expertise and training to make informed comments on. We get enough of that these days from other sources...