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So... Check Mate, Internal Combustion Engine

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Excellent points. I bring this up every time somebody whines to me about battery costs or range limitations. All we need is time; and not very much of it either.

BTW, DVD recorders did not fail because nobody wanted to record. They failed because they had major compatibility issues, multiple competing formats, and were a general PITA to work with. You couldn't just throw a disc in, record something, and play it back later. You had to first format the disc (in the compatible format, remember there were two to choose from), record your program, and then "close" the disc for compatibility. By the time OEMs got these issues under control, hard drives were a viable alternative with none of the drawbacks. I understand the point you were making, though.
 
I think it's essentially going to come down to price, and the battery is the biggest component of EV pricing right now. A lot of the other examples had drastic and rapid price drops as adoption rose. If that happens, then the ICE's days are numbered. The question is, do we see a "Moore's Law" type of scenario happening with battery technology?

I don't believe Moore's Law applies to battery technology at all: solid state devices have benefitted from year-over-year improvements for so long because of improvements in chip fabrication that allow for ever-increasing transistor density. Miniaturization, in other words: so the way forward has been clearly understood. As for batteries, we need a breakthrough in chemistry to do much toward improving stored energy density, and breakthroughs are inherently unpredictable.

Here's a salient piece from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:

No Moore's Law for Batteries
 
Film cameras didn't die off for lack of film.

No, but I think it had more to do with how quickly the technology dropped in price. My first digital camera was a 2 MP Kodak point-and-shoot (circa year 2000) that I paid about $900 for (don't ask how much I paid for my first cell phone!).

DC3400_3_L.JPG
 
No, but I think it had more to do with how quickly the technology dropped in price.

For all the dogma about EV's vs. ICE, it would really be good to see price/performance over time graphs. My believe is that the EV improvement curve is better than the ICE improvement curve. But that could be a subjective thing.

On the EV side we have
Expensive batteries which could get less so with manufacturing scaling
Batteries which could get better in terms of energy stored
Electric motors are pretty good - high efficiency - probably not getting better by much
Electricity prices will probably rise - but technology changes here are possible

On the ICE side we have
Gas Engines which are not so efficient - but might get better - there is room to improve - companies working very hard in this area
Gas fuel costs which are hard to imagine going down
Manufacturing costs - I'll bet these have been worked on for so long there isn't much room here and some of these may apply to EV's also.

I think the EV improvements over time look more likely than ICE improvements. "Your mileage may vary"
 
For all the dogma about EV's vs. ICE, it would really be good to see price/performance over time graphs. My believe is that the EV improvement curve is better than the ICE improvement curve. But that could be a subjective thing.

On the EV side we have
Expensive batteries which could get less so with manufacturing scaling
Batteries which could get better in terms of energy stored
Electric motors are pretty good - high efficiency - probably not getting better by much
Electricity prices will probably rise - but technology changes here are possible

On the ICE side we have
Gas Engines which are not so efficient - but might get better - there is room to improve - companies working very hard in this area
Gas fuel costs which are hard to imagine going down
Manufacturing costs - I'll bet these have been worked on for so long there isn't much room here and some of these may apply to EV's also.

I think the EV improvements over time look more likely than ICE improvements. "Your mileage may vary"

This. The essence being: the only thing missing to make EVs perfect is better battery tech - all other aspects and variables are already either close to perfect (motor) or equivalent to all other cars (safety, suspension, interior etc etc).
 
This. The essence being: the only thing missing to make EVs perfect is better battery tech - all other aspects and variables are already either close to perfect (motor) or equivalent to all other cars (safety, suspension, interior etc etc).

The safety is only equivalent to an ICE if you can build an ICE with the engine somewhere other than in the front or read of the car...
 
First off, to the OP:
Leilani, I hope you're the one behind the wheel of the first EV to win an open competition (ie, ICE & NO ICE in the same race).
Second, thanks for starting this thread.

Now, as I look around at my compound and behind various doors, here's what I see:

a diesel F-350. What I think we know about EV technology at present is that the torque certainly is there to match; I think, however, that we've got a ways to go before the weight + power match what a diesel powerplant can do, but it's probably not far off. A few years.

a diesel E-350 12-seat 4WD van. Ditto

a diesel Golf. A fine car, at 50mpg, and $26K new. Its weak point is it's poor as a winter driver. I'm suspecting it shortly will be overtaken by, for example, the Leaf-type EVs - if it hasn't already been.

a diesel BJ40 Land Cruiser. Ain't no replacement for her! She's a classic (1980) AND rarer than hen's teeth! Sounds lovely, too.

a Subaru Outback. Other than at her price point (it's a '98), she's toast...

a Caterpillar 305CR Excavator. And its colleague, a Caterpillar 287B Skidsteer. Diesels, of course. Now, I've not heard anything from CAT or Komatsu or Hitachi or Deere, but the longevity of a diesel powerplant in heavy equipment...their ability to work really​ hard all day long....well, it's going to be hard to see EVs as cracking that market, although the truly largest heavy equipment: draglines and >250-ton haulers, use multiple electric motors - in the case of the dump haulers there is one at every wheel, for example. Hmmm.

a Pisten Bully 280. Diesel, of course. And for those of you too lazy to Google, that's our big snow groomer with its 18'-wide blade and tiller. Now we are coming in to the territory where ICEs are likely to hold sway for the foreseeable future: cold weather (even though diesels are at a disadvantage there wrt gasoline engines). We really are going to have to see good advances in battery electrochemistry for EVs to function appropriately in Alaska's Normal State Of Affairs (jaw-cracking cold, that is).

an Arctic Cat Bearcat. That's a snowmachine (snowmobile). Gas. Now, it happens that some engineering students at UAF have built an electric snowmachine, but it remains impractical. If one ever is developed, it likely will be like the Bearcat: a high-torque hauler rather than a zippydippy machine....but that's not cast in stone, either.

a 90hp Johnson on the Boston Whaler. Well, I'd love to see an EV outboard (or in/outboard). Why not?

Assorted other diesel or gas-powered items around here include a few more smaller items like a portable compressor....and close to a half-dozen generators. Can't make THOSE electric...yet (though my biggest powerplant is the set of PV panels that feed my nine-ton battery bank. Just like a Tesla...without wheels!

The bottom line up here, from the perspective of 2013, is that five years down the road I would hope two or perhaps three of the above can justifiably be replaced by an EV equivalent...but that notwithstanding, hydrocarbon explosions in cylinders will continue to be crucial for a good time yet.
 
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