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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

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Also, this document was posted by a Seeking Alpha commentator which I thought was quite interesting: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r12021.pdf

It's a peer review of the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) Draft Report “Modeling the Cost and Performance of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric-Drive Vehicles" and most interesting thing I found about it is that one of the peer reviewers is from Tesla Motors. A Mr. Kurt Kelty, whose bio is also included. Here is an interesting excerpt:



So the battery person at Tesla Motors used to work at Panasonic for quite some time, including leading their battery research lab in Silicon Valley among other relevant activities. The implications are very interesting.

Because he worked in japan for a long time, I'm betting he has numerous contact still at the Panasonic battery division, tesla has been known to hire the best, make the leap from A to B, if Panasonic as a company doesn't want to sign on, I bet there are numerous engineers that would jump at the chance to be part of history, making the worlds largest battery factory. Elon will get it done, one way or another :)
 
I did view it FluxCap. In addition it took me about two weeks but I did read through CapOp's two threads on cell costs and pack IP. He worked hard on those two topics as you all know.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I think CapOp no longer posts much these days because he is apprehensive of the Gigafactory. It is so capital intensive, and it will be difficult without Panasonic's cooperation. As others have explained, Panasonic has many good reasons not to do such massive joint venture. Panasonic is an old conservative large company. The company has lost a lot of money in the past ten years. Its management cares more about creating jobs and making a profit at low risk than to save the earth from global warming. As its CEO Tusuga explained, they understand what Elon wants, but they can only move one incremental step at a time (i.e. increase production rate one step at a time when needed, as they are doing to accommodate the Model S and X through 2017). Naturally Panasonic is not interested in sharing its cell IP and production know-how with anyone unless it had no other choice.

We don't see any battery experts explaining cell chemistry, cell IP dynamics, and cell manufacturing here on TMC (which is kind of strange actually given how hot this stock has been and that Tesla wants to build a battery factory). From the outside, we have no idea how difficult it will be for Elon to create the Gigafactory without Panasonic/Samsung/LG/Chinese. For sure, just like all of you here, I want Tesla to succeed.

Your posts are eerily similar to a guy on here a while back, TFTF..."tales from the future" I think he calls himself on Seeking Alpha, do you know of him?
goodluck on your skeptical speculation, it is a healthy viewpoint to include here on the forums so that we see the different types of doubt people still have in Tesla's future success.
 
I did view it FluxCap. In addition it took me about two weeks but I did read through CapOp's two threads on cell costs and pack IP. He worked hard on those two topics as you all know.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I think CapOp no longer posts much these days because he is apprehensive of the Gigafactory.

Hummingbird, it was indeed a long video, but there was a point I remember where CapOp stepped back and said roughly, don't get me wrong, I'm extremely bullish on Tesla. The way I heard it, he felt like the announcement wasn't really that meaningful because they didn't yet announce their partners, but I think it would be mistaken to see this (or his less frequent posting for that matter) as some kind of "downgrade" of TSLA from CapOp.
 
I did view it FluxCap. In addition it took me about two weeks but I did read through CapOp's two threads on cell costs and pack IP. He worked hard on those two topics as you all know.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I think CapOp no longer posts much these days because he is apprehensive of the Gigafactory. It is so capital intensive, and it will be difficult without Panasonic's cooperation. As others have explained, Panasonic has many good reasons not to do such massive joint venture. Panasonic is an old conservative large company. The company has lost a lot of money in the past ten years. Its management cares more about creating jobs and making a profit at low risk than to save the earth from global warming. As its CEO Tusuga explained, they understand what Elon wants, but they can only move one incremental step at a time (i.e. increase production rate one step at a time when needed, as they are doing to accommodate the Model S and X through 2017). Naturally Panasonic is not interested in sharing its cell IP and production know-how with anyone unless it had no other choice.

We don't see any battery experts explaining cell chemistry, cell IP dynamics, and cell manufacturing here on TMC (which is kind of strange actually given how hot this stock has been and that Tesla wants to build a battery factory). From the outside, we have no idea how difficult it will be for Elon to create the Gigafactory without Panasonic/Samsung/LG/Chinese. For sure, just like all of you here, I want Tesla to succeed.

JRP3 has done some extensive posts on different battery technologies, you just have to visit the battery sections of the forums to see the lengthy discussions.

IMO Elon wants to build the gigafactory because he's frustrated with battery manufacturers holding things back.

I'm not sure why the battery manufactures don't see the demand that is staring them in the face. It's not just from EV's. The solar industry has been longing for great batteries for decades, not to mention every commercial and industrial customer that is getting exorbitant fees for demand charges every day.
 
If there is indeed this much demand, I don't see how batteries can be a commodity. The price of batteries would rocket up if they were holding back production of cars. I think that sort of logic suggests that a battery factory that IS the world's supply of batteries would have a good profit margin if electric cars take off.

I suppose they are commodities because you can't price-differentiate the batteries, all batteries are the same, but if there's a serious shortage, then the profit margin on the batteries will be sufficient.
 
A few responses to some of the things said in this thread:

1. I have a Nissan Leaf and it is a good car. I got the base model, because it has all you need and there is no value in getting the mid or upper model. CARWINGS would be nice, but not worth an extra $50/month.

After 6 months the A/C already stopped working and I get a warning that the tire needs maintenance. Other than that I really like the car.

2. There is plenty of room for the Nissan Leaf as well as Model E, I3, etc. EV demand is growing exponentially. Even if only 1% of cars sold are EV's then that is 1 million cars.

3. High demand for batteries will not cause the price of batteries to go up. It is the exact opposite right now. Namely, batteries are too expensive and there is not enough demand for this reason. We need batteries to come down in price.

4. Tesla will double world Lithium Ion battery production with GF. Now it only needs to build 200 more GF's after the first one to be able to supply enough batteries for every car sold to be an EV.

5. The only thing holding EV's back from mass adoption will be battery supply. EV's will grow as fast as the battery supply can grow.

6. Hummingbird does sound like tftf.

7. Solar really needs cheap battery storage to take it to the next level.

8. Tesla's margins will not contract, because of what I wrote in points 4. and 5.

9. I do not invest in stocks with the sole purpose of maximizing my return. I vote with my wallet and invest in companies that I believe in and ones that are honest with their shareholders and the public. I invest in solar companies, but if I don't like the company for one reason or another then I will not invest in it even if I knew that it could potentially yield huge returns. E.g. after the hack job that TSL did issuing their PR about their new Honey Ultra modules, I will probably not invest in that company again; they purposely mislead investors with that PR making it sound like their vaporware modules are going to be "world record efficient" when in reality they will be just meh (if ever produced). And TSL is significantly undervalued right now.

10. Group think is dangerous, but listening to naysayers when they are wrong can be even more dangerous.

Good luck to everyone and happy investing.
 
Its logic like this that makes me cringe a little... There is no reason to think that other car manufacturers will buy batteries from Tesla, or even use the same chemistry/technology that Tesla uses.
Furthermore, the idea that by owning an EV, or the entire world using EVs, makes the world a greener place is far from reality. Yea maybe one day when all of the world's energy is solar, wind and hydro that may be true. But that is a lonnng time from now (several decades at the very minimum). The recycling process of the metal casings for batteries, the car body etc. are all extremely wasteful, not to mention getting electricity from the US grid...
Finally, the name of the game is to make money, not helping the world. Investing in tesla because you think the company will do well, and you want to make money off it is fine. To think that by doing so you are saving the world is just fuel for the bears to feed on.

Almost nothing you have said here is correct.

First, there is reason to believe that other car manufacturers will buy batteries from Tesla, because two of them already do buy batteries from Tesla. That seems like reason enough for me.

Second, owning an EV and the whole world using EVs definitely makes the world a greener place, even without doing anything whatsoever to the electrical grid. Check this link to see that no matter where you are in the US, an EV is cleaner than a gasoline car: Global Warming Emissions and Fuel-Cost Savings of Electric Cars (2012) | Union of Concerned Scientists - you can see the same thing on Tesla's Go Electric page, broken down by state, using US EIA data. Also, EVs get cleaner as the grid gets cleaner, which is not the case with gas cars. *And* you can install solar onto your house and immediately make your EV 100% emissions-free, which is something 30% of EV owners in CA have done (according to a recent survey of EV owners in CA), so don't think that this is some sort of niche application. All cars have bodies so to say that an EV takes more to build or recycle is silly - it takes a slight bit more energy to build an EV and the EV uses massively less over its lifetime, because cars use a vast majority of their energy during operation, not production (there are many studies and common sense showing this, but I can produce one if you're that skeptical...you shouldn't be, though, it seems pretty obvious). Recycling, also, is not a huge issue, as lithium ion batteries are non-toxic and can even be landfilled, not that they would be, because they'll be reused in low-draw applications like grid storage which offer additional efficiency gains after they are out of the car, and then if it becomes economically viable to recycle batteries they will be recycled (it currently isn't, not because it's expensive to recycle them, but because it's so cheap and easy to get lithium). Regardless of this, some firms already have ~90% recycling efficiency for li-ion batteries.

Really, I have no idea how you can be so woefully misinformed about this point if you spend any amount of time on this forum. It is unequivocally true that EVs are better for the environment than gasoline vehicles according to anyone who has given the least bit thought to the issue.

Finally, the name of the game, explicitly, from the top of Tesla, is to accelerate electric vehicle adoption. That's the name of my game as well. If I make money on the way (as I and everyone here has already done), fine. If I don't and all I get is a longer life and get to breathe clean air and leave a better world for all of our children, then I guess that's just a terrible thing isn't it?

Speaking of bear fuel, every environmental concern you've brought up is explicitly bear fuel, and is completely false. So please do not accuse others of spreading bear fuel when that is exactly what you are doing.
 
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Speaking of bear fuel, every environmental concern you've brought up is explicitly bear fuel, and is completely false. So please do not accuse others of spreading bear fuel when that is exactly what you are doing.

It seems that in the mind of animals like dinosaurs and bears there is a contradiction between benefiting the environment and making money when all evidence from reality shows that the two go hand-in-hand which is logical since our future depens on it and usually whatever is good for the future is where the money is.
 
A few responses to some of the things said in this thread:

1. I have a Nissan Leaf and it is a good car. I got the base model, because it has all you need and there is no value in getting the mid or upper model. CARWINGS would be nice, but not worth an extra $50/month.


Sleepy, I think OVMS might be available for the Leaf? If so, then you can get a carwings-equivalent (sort of? not sure what all carwings does) for 100 down (equipment) and like 5 bucks a month (sim card).

sleepyhead said:
2. There is plenty of room for the Nissan Leaf as well as Model E, I3, etc. EV demand is growing exponentially. Even if only 1% of cars sold are EV's then that is 1 million cars.

In fact, EV demand is growing faster than hybrid demand did over the same time period according to an autoblog article from a while back.

Plug-ins surpass hybrids early-market growth rate in the US

sleepyhead said:
9. I do not invest in stocks with the sole purpose of maximizing my return. I vote with my wallet and invest in companies that I believe in and ones that are honest with their shareholders and the public. I invest in solar companies, but if I don't like the company for one reason or another then I will not invest in it even if I knew that it could potentially yield huge returns. E.g. after the hack job that TSL did issuing their PR about their new Honey Ultra modules, I will probably not invest in that company again; they purposely mislead investors with that PR making it sound like their vaporware modules are going to be "world record efficient" when in reality they will be just meh (if ever produced). And TSL is significantly undervalued right now.

Honestly as far as I'm concerned this is the only way to invest. I could put all my money in some oil stock and collect a dividend and my 1% growth a year or whatever and be fine, but I would feel dirty about it and I wouldn't be doing the right thing and I wouldn't be making any significant amount of money anyway.

And you know what? Investing like this has done very well for me. Because this mentality goes hand in hand with "invest in what you know." If you know a lot about something, then you'll know whether it's good or bad, and if you're very interested in a technology or sector and think it's going to do good things for the world, then you'll research it and know a lot about it. And *that* is the best way to make money. The one caveat is of course if you drink the kool-aid a little too much, but knowledge about the sector can mitigate that. And taking a bigger view of your investment's place in the world and how it affects the world long term can also lead to a less narrow minded view which again gives you the edge over those who don't think broadly enough.
 
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This really feels similar to the way that TSLA acted after Q3/fires - where the stock just waffles for weeks, unreactive to positives that would usually propel it upward at least 5% (i.e. the GS note this morning). Very frustrating.
 
This really feels similar to the way that TSLA acted after Q3/fires - where the stock just waffles for weeks, unreactive to positives that would usually propel it upward at least 5% (i.e. the GS note this morning). Very frustrating.

It's general market sentiment, not TM specific. Although Tesla has massively outperformed the NASDAQ for the last year, the shape of its graph is very similar to that of all other NASDAQ momentum stocks. If you want to be cynical, you could claim that Tesla's appreciation is solely due to the fact that it is now regarded as a momentum stock, while this was not the case a year ago. Tesla is an incredibly exposed stock if there is a general market downturn (the 23% drop from 265 to 205 is clear evidence of this, and hopefully just a healthy correction).

I think Tesla's appreciation is due to company-specific events and that the current stock price is more or less correct, I'm just saying that you could easily make a different argument. And there is no guarantee that the stock market will remain rational in a downturn, even if it happens to be rational right now.
 
During the last pull back to the $120's my goals was to position myself to better take advantage of the run up to $200 than I was the first time. So I sold most of my stock and converted to LEAPS and I was definitely better positioned and my portfolio did much better. I have the same goal this time but just not sure what to do. I'm not as confident that TSLA can run up to $260 again. Or maybe it can but it just won't be as fast as the $120-$200 move.

Anyone doing anything similar? Or are most people just being cautious and protecting their profits?
 
I'm tempted, justdoit. I've been buying 2016 400-500 call spreads when they were around 10 bucks each (they're less than that now), and a couple 300-500 call spreads around 20 bucks each, selling shares to get fully out of margin debit, to book profits yet still expose myself to a large runup which I think will continue to happen over the next 2 years. Of course at this point the 500 part of those spreads is up 35% and I sort of want to buy it back.

I do want to keep holding a fair amount of stock though rather than just calls, and selling stock also means realizing large amounts of gains. I got myself completely out of margin debit around the top (250ish), which I feel great about, so I could take on a lot of margin here if I felt like it, and I already have a little bit, but I'm a tiny bit cautious. Still I think this is a similar buying opportunity to the 120-140 range (which is to say, 120 was a no brainer, this might be closer to like 130 or 140, which were both good choices but not as no-brainer-y).
 
During the last pull back to the $120's my goals was to position myself to better take advantage of the run up to $200 than I was the first time. So I sold most of my stock and converted to LEAPS and I was definitely better positioned and my portfolio did much better. I have the same goal this time but just not sure what to do. I'm not as confident that TSLA can run up to $260 again. Or maybe it can but it just won't be as fast as the $120-$200 move.

Anyone doing anything similar? Or are most people just being cautious and protecting their profits?

its funny in those bleeding days, most are quiet here. What is goin on?? Will be dip below $200 tomorrow?
 
its funny in those bleeding days, most are quiet here. What is goin on?? Will be dip below $200 tomorrow?

I do not see TSLA breaking away from the general direction of the other 'momos' until Elon pops up in China to deliver the first car (announce some type of good reservation numbers) or
early May Q1ER. If the market continues to correct and large fund managers flee to the relative safety of large cap companies that pay dividends I can see TSLA under 200. I have resisted buying more stock at this point. My 2015/16 LEAPS are taking on water but I will be buying more stock if we dip to 185-190 range. I have NO technical reason for picking this number just what I wrote down when we were kind of floundering in the 220 range with little positive catalyst that I could see in the near term.
 
I do not see TSLA breaking away from the general direction of the other 'momos' until Elon pops up in China to deliver the first car (announce some type of good reservation numbers) or
early May Q1ER. If the market continues to correct and large fund managers flee to the relative safety of large cap companies that pay dividends I can see TSLA under 200. I have resisted buying more stock at this point. My 2015/16 LEAPS are taking on water but I will be buying more stock if we dip to 185-190 range. I have NO technical reason for picking this number just what I wrote down when we were kind of floundering in the 220 range with little positive catalyst that I could see in the near term.

I'm pretty sure the big fund managers on the street who created this "momo correction" will do exactly as you suggest. Sell, short and create the "correction" story, then buy back the stock of the decade at bargain prices when the dust settles. How low we go before the big buying starts is the question. I think we could see a ton of buy orders under $200, but I could be wrong.
 
I'm pretty sure the big fund managers on the street who created this "momo correction" will do exactly as you suggest. Sell, short and create the "correction" story, then buy back the stock of the decade at bargain prices when the dust settles. How low we go before the big buying starts is the question. I think we could see a ton of buy orders under $200, but I could be wrong.
I'm all out of buying power, but if we ever touch the 200-day again (Around $150 I think), I'll take out a second mortgage and throw it all into DITM Jan '16s. YOLO!