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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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Just as soon as the Gigafactory partnerships and location are announced. Silence in public is quite normal during such negotiations, in fact likely required by non-disclosure agreements. But investor frustration over the silence has been a key factor keeping pressure on the share price. Elon likely had the process all figured from the beginning, and is now playing the involved entities like strings on the violin that used to be in his twitter photo. I expect everything to be in place no later than the upcoming quarterly conference call. Elon would not like to have to avoid questions about it at that time. The announcement that stuns short sellers and greatly rewards patient shareholders could come any day now.
Curt, mostly to manage my own expectations, I've just sort of assumed it will take the better part of 2014 before partners are finalized and announced. No expertise here, just general life experience that anticipated events with large institutions involved take significantly longer than one would otherwise think (case in point, NHTSA report on Tesla investigation). Is there anything in particular that makes you think this will get done within a month (next quarterly call)? Tesla definitely can move fast... it's the other players that have me telling myself not to expect anything until the fall or winter.
fwiw, while I hope we don't have to wait, even if we do, I agree with your suggestion of Elon delivering a very satisfying arrangement for Tesla and its shareholders.
The facts that Tesla has already borrowed its share of the money for the Gigafactory, and that the facility needs to be ready for Gen III requirements in 2017, if not sooner for faster production of Models S and X.
something that i thought was interesting along the lines of the timing of the partner announcements was from the gigafactory blog post (and related PDF): on the last page that showed a timeline of events related to the gigafactory, if you'll notice, the arrow showing "partner discussions" reaches nearly to the end of 2014. this leads me to believe that (like steve's assumption) we will likely have to wait until late 2014 to get full details about tesla's partners. i did find it interesting in the goldman report that came out today that they indicated that "Tesla management categorically dismissed that any aspect of its commercial relationship with Panasonic has changed".
will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
surfside
will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
surfside
Yes, in pretty confident another short squeeze will happen in the near future. We're quiet for a few reasons.
1. Elon only has so much time and SpaceX has a launch on Monday, so I'd imagine his immediate focus isn't on Tesla news releases. After launch, he'll probably throw himself full into Tesla.
2. We are probably on the cusp of a quiet period before earnings which will arrive sooner than one may think.
3. All hands are on deck for Model S ramp up, Model X development, and Gigafactory selection. I'd actually be more bothered if Tesla was worrying about share price.
4. There's a ton of bond holders, did you see the dilution presentation? The 300+ convertible price?
5. I tend to believe history likes to repeat itself. People till don't get it yet. This story isn't over until Model E arrives and gets significant share of market.
Markets right now are on risk off mode and are jittery due to the Fed and earnings season coming up. For Tesla, there are WAYY too many people with short positions and potential catalysts for an upward boom. I don't mind this little lull we are having. It buys me more time for my short term to become long term investments
1. Elon only has so much time and SpaceX has a launch on Monday, so I'd imagine his immediate focus isn't on Tesla news releases. After launch, he'll probably throw himself full into Tesla.
2. We are probably on the cusp of a quiet period before earnings which will arrive sooner than one may think.
3. All hands are on deck for Model S ramp up, Model X development, and Gigafactory selection. I'd actually be more bothered if Tesla was worrying about share price.
4. There's a ton of bond holders, did you see the dilution presentation? The 300+ convertible price?
5. I tend to believe history likes to repeat itself. People till don't get it yet. This story isn't over until Model E arrives and gets significant share of market.
Markets right now are on risk off mode and are jittery due to the Fed and earnings season coming up. For Tesla, there are WAYY too many people with short positions and potential catalysts for an upward boom. I don't mind this little lull we are having. It buys me more time for my short term to become long term investments
I was really hoping for a good rally at the end of day. At least the index futures are in the green right now.
I still think that big money is going to want to be in TSLA significantly before ER. At the moment, they may be content forcing the price lower to have a better entry point.
The question in my mind is whether or not we get a hint before ER like we did with the North American Auto Show last quarter. First deliveries in the UK and/or China would be prime opportunities if they are public events, so the timing of those events is critical if there is going to be a move before earnings. I doubt we get Gigafactory updates of any sort before ER, but it would be welcome.
I still think that big money is going to want to be in TSLA significantly before ER. At the moment, they may be content forcing the price lower to have a better entry point.
The question in my mind is whether or not we get a hint before ER like we did with the North American Auto Show last quarter. First deliveries in the UK and/or China would be prime opportunities if they are public events, so the timing of those events is critical if there is going to be a move before earnings. I doubt we get Gigafactory updates of any sort before ER, but it would be welcome.
Interesting catches, surfside and SteveG3. The use of broad arrows rather than a detailed description was undoubtedly intentional to keep the timeline flexible. The early arrows overlapping in time leaves a lot of room for variance in dates. Those first ones may have been colored in gray to signify particular vagueness. If taken as it appears, the red arrow for facility construction makes it seem that it could be commencing by May of this year. Indeed, you may be right that an announcement is more likely to come late this year. But I still favor the notion that Elon could surprise everyone much sooner.
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See the prospectus: Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424
Curt, i do agree that Tesla has positive catalysts the market doesn't fully appreciate that could come virtually at any moment. I even agree that news on Gigafactory partners could be one such catalyst... I just look at that particular one as an item I try to manage my expectations on. Nice surprise if it happens in a month or two, but a source of frustration if I expect that to be the case.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
InTheShadows
Active Member
AntiC and Shadows: Like your attitudes. Long term ( for purposes of this discussion I will define it as up to ERQ2/3 and guidance) I believe $200 will have looked like a buying opportunity.
Before that I believe we are in a correction stage that is market wide. Friends with a little more experience than I project the markets to be at best is a sideways mode/funk for Q! and into early Q2. ERs for Q! may be disappointing, because of geopolitics and the effect of a brutal winter season on growth. I see the bottom for TSLA swing as being more in the 180s, low 190s. I hope I am wrong and you guys are right.
Before that I believe we are in a correction stage that is market wide. Friends with a little more experience than I project the markets to be at best is a sideways mode/funk for Q! and into early Q2. ERs for Q! may be disappointing, because of geopolitics and the effect of a brutal winter season on growth. I see the bottom for TSLA swing as being more in the 180s, low 190s. I hope I am wrong and you guys are right.
Yes it is, when there is blood in the streets and people are fearful of falling knives (i.e.Brysondad) it is the time to buy...this is the expected correction we've all been waiting for and is healthy consolidation for the overall market. A great time to buy in my opinion too
InTheShadows
Active Member
Yea, me too, I really messed up late February. I'm still up for the year because January and mid February were such huge gains. However being a noob cost us lots of money.
My gut tells me that when this trend us over it's going to rocket up quickly. I'd love to call the bottom, however for long term I will be very pleased to get tsla and solar at these prices.
My accounts are maxed out with stock and 2016 LEAPs in both my taxable acct and my IRA...I'm stuck in my taxable acct as I need to wait a few more months for LT gains to kick in before I do anything...but in my IRA I may sell stock to buy a combination of 2016 LEAPs and Sept 250 calls...I'm thinking about it...but probably will not act on that unless we go below 195
I see why people are looking at $205 as an attractive price. it is. I just want to share what's helped me out over many years in terms of picking up trading shares on a core position of a very long term play. I do my opportunistic buying in pieces. In other words, as I have X dollars I'm looking to buy some trading shares with, I'm going to divide X by 3 and look to pick up in 190s, 180s, and 170s. I'll be totally happy if I never get any shares in the 170s, or any shares at all as I have my core holding and will gladly watch TSLA works its way back up without ever dropping through $200 if thats how things turn out. if it does go to the 170s, this approach makes it more pleasant to me. I realize some of you guys are all about trading, so this may not make sense for you... but I've been pretty happy with this over the years as a way to augment buy/hold gains.
I should also mention, I only see a substantial chance of lower prices because of the general market, growth/"momo" looking fairly likely to continue falling... and thus I think it's quite likely we drop below $200. As to Tesla itself, I think the last few weeks have had quite a bit of good news, but between now and earnings, Tesla's rather susceptible to just moving with the market.
I should also mention, I only see a substantial chance of lower prices because of the general market, growth/"momo" looking fairly likely to continue falling... and thus I think it's quite likely we drop below $200. As to Tesla itself, I think the last few weeks have had quite a bit of good news, but between now and earnings, Tesla's rather susceptible to just moving with the market.
I grabbed my LEAPS and some 220 and 240 Sept calls what turns out to be a little early:frown:. But I guess I have myself set up for a possible Q1 and Q2 ER surge with the Sept calls.....well at least that is what I hope. Good luck to all in these turbulent times!
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