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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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- TSLA
Yeah, so there goes my option purchase... Didn't expect anything today but oh well not like I don't already have a position.
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Eh, bought some anyway but at this point will sell before earnings if stock runs up as it is digested and more details come out. Anyway this is total fun money and doesn't amount to anything significant for me.
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I bought 10x 8/1 $200 calls (I did so a few weeks ago and the time value is magically unchanged). They are trading at near zero time premium. I think it is a no-brainer that some de-risking will happen this week or during the conf call. It is stuff we all know, but the varioius pieces will be perceived as falling into place: Panasonic definitely committed, and with yen in the game; Site work on GF, production line increased a bunch in Fremont, Model X on track etc etc. It will be a nice story and it should be a modestly good week for the stock.
My 2 cents.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Modestly good week...do you think we'd visit the $240 level from four weeks ago again? That spike was on no news...
I'm mostly in LEAPs as well, but I've also set up a strangle: 8/16 232.5 Call + 8/16 222.5 Put. It seems the short-term results (Q2-Q3 deliveries/profit) will be unexciting, and there may or may not be progress on the GF, so I'm trying to play it both ways since I haven't a clue how the market will react.
No, I usually buy in-the-money calls-- less leverage but less premium cost. I can usually find options that are trading with very little premium. I will hold them to Friday, yes. Just a straight up leveraged position figuring that the net result of this week will be positive, not negative. Because my ITM options were "at cost" I just need to be right about the direction.
Of course, I also have shares and 2016 leaps.
(just made a note for myself to definitely sell them on Friday though. It would be a big mess for the options to get exercised!)
Actually, I am surprised more by the lack of a strong definitive price change either up or down since the opening bell Monday. Initially, once the Panasonic news was announced it appeared we were going to have a strong run up to ER, then BOA chimed in and muted that rise. Seems we will be trading sideways up to ER.
Indeed I thought we would see some more heavy swinging today but we haven't yet. Still plenty of time before ER for things to move though, with the "AJ twins" analysis yet to come, as well as tomorrow's 10am GDP report looming.
Geez, ER in 2 days and not even 3 million shares traded yet today. I can't believe how quiet it is here but I guess all the momentum players have left.
Well the AJ twins have spoken, and are quite a bit more cautious with their language than I predicted. This could magnify the upside significantly if there is any positive surprise in the ER, I think. But I'm inclined to go with Mr. Jonas this time. Not going to bet the farm on calls this ER, myself.
Agreed. since I am heavy on the call side I am looking at 'protective puts' as we speak. Half my Jan 15s are underwater and I was hoping for a little help with ER, but now am not expecting it.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Which is extremely unusual for tsla. Usually down day of (prerelease) and day before.
Tomorrow and Friday will be very interesting. As usual, it comes down to the CC and guidance. If Elon/TM gives very little info about the GFs (locations/partners/partner's contributions), model X and 3, and demand in China it may be a rough time for call options.
So I sold my fun options at a very slight profit since I really was just hoping for a continued run after the first hint of a Gigafactory announcement and definitely was planning on selling before they lose the earnings premium. Otherwise I'm going into this release completely neutral. I can't see myself making any big bets on any future earnings releases to be honest.
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