Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[chickensevil]

But seriously, I think the stock just hadn't picked up on any of this news yet because the first headlines were not trailing in on this until like 3:30 and Google took a while to update it's search on these being posted. I think the market has had no time to react to this and we will get *something* out of it.

Look we have everything in China going our way (EV incentives, charging being built out, all signs of positive news, etc)
We have the recent 400$ PT
We have multiple reports coming out of the factory that they are on path to hit their targets, they are ramping quickly, they will be at 1k by the end of Q3 as expected, etc.
Now we have the gigafactory news (which really will not sink in until later I think... The market has been slow to react to our breaking news alerts haha)

All this stuff has been hitting in a really short window and the technicals are there to support a rise to either ~317 or ~370 depending on which one you want to look at... I feel pretty good.

 

[Curt Renz]

That 287.57 was a late print or some other fluke, which happens almost everyday in the after-hours. here's the current after-hours order book:

That was undoubtedly to clear up an "out trade", i.e. a discrepancy in the information reported by the parties in a trade intended to be made earlier in day.

 

[austinEV]

I agree it is not a negative but it alone is not what we need to see TM over $300 within the month of September. Having said that I bought some Sept 5 290s at market close....Lotto tickets for .71. Probably will go worthless but it has been a nice run. I hope the market looks at the decision with a green eye as do several of my TMC forum friends.:wink:

We think alike, but I run with more boring strikes. I got some sept 5 262's.

 

[mershaw2001]

The tesla site choice is now up on the front of Google Finance, yet the stock price has acted as though there's no news, staying within 50 cents of the ending price. Is it just the lack of information on the deal that is causing this? Or is there apathy about the decision to continue construction there?

 

[MikeC]

The tesla site choice is now up on the front of Google Finance, yet the stock price has acted as though there's no news, staying within 50 cents of the ending price. Is it just the lack of information on the deal that is causing this? Or is there apathy about the decision to continue construction there?

Is there anything about this news that makes you want to buy TSLA? We knew they had to pick a site and they did, but that doesn't really change anything materially. Just like how people thought breaking ground would give us a boost. If it doesn't change the story, it shouldn't affect the stock price much. Now if a sweet incentives deal was revealed, that might be helpful.

 

[Curt Renz]

The tesla site choice is now up on the front of Google Finance, yet the stock price has acted as though there's no news, staying within 50 cents of the ending price. Is it just the lack of information on the deal that is causing this? Or is there apathy about the decision to continue construction there?

The news broke an hour before the market closed. Benzinga posted a headline at 2:57 pm EDT. The share price immediately dropped in response. MarketWatch posted a headline at 2:59 and a paragraph at 3:11. These pushed the price down even more.

 

[TSLAopt]

Is there anything about this news that makes you want to buy TSLA? We knew they had to pick a site and they did, but that doesn't really change anything materially. Just like how people thought breaking ground would give us a boost. If it doesn't change the story, it shouldn't affect the stock price much. Now if a sweet incentives deal was revealed, that might be helpful.

Could be one of those 'buy n the rumor sell on the news' type of things...now that the news is coming the people are selling who had bought on rumors recently of an imminent announcement, we will see tomorrow I suspect.
as a long term holder it pleases me, but as a short term trader I would not know what to do here

 

[chickensevil]

based on the information it seems like they are finalizing the incentive package, but there *will be an incentive package*. Plus my calls are a bit farther out than this week so it will give time for the full announcement, big news, etc.

Based on my following of this forum vs the overall market we seem to be excited about 2 weeks before anything ever actually happens... I have my 2 week buffer still for this news to fully sink in.

I don't feel like this is the top, and we have just a little more room to go before there is a serious pull back... but I could totally be wrong.

 

[AlMc]

I would be curious to know: Any forum members buying TSLA at 280ish recently?

 

[mershaw2001]

I would be curious to know: Any forum members buying TSLA at 280ish recently?

I've been selling calls against my core position. My general opinion is that the gigafactory is good for the stock long term, but most people were expecting some sort of great fight between california and texas that would result in a windfall for tesla. Without that, the last news piece was the 400 dollar price target and the next known news piece is the model x reveal, so we're in no-man's land for a month. Furthermore, short interest was at a relative low for tesla on the last report if i recall correctly, so I felt comfortable selling the 295's on a fraction of my shares and the 320's on another fraction.

 

[AlMc]

I've been selling calls against my core position. My general opinion is that the gigafactory is good for the stock long term, but most people were expecting some sort of great fight between california and texas that would result in a windfall for tesla. Without that, the last news piece was the 400 dollar price target and the next known news piece is the model x reveal, so we're in no-man's land for a month. Furthermore, short interest was at a relative low for tesla on the last report if i recall correctly, so I felt comfortable selling the 295's on a fraction of my shares and the 320's on another fraction.

I have contemplated selling covered calls before but never done so. I still feel there is the possibility of more positive news in the coming days/weeks. My fear...probably more of a concern is Q3ER.....

 

[Johann Koeber]

I would be curious to know: Any forum members buying TSLA at 280ish recently?

I did not buy stocks outright, but I bought back some covered calls that were ITM.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I would be curious to know: Any forum members buying TSLA at 280ish recently?

Yes will be exercising 140 contracts with strike prices between 100 and 130 before expiration

 

[DaveT]

Yes will be exercising 140 contracts with strike prices between 100 and 130 before expiration

You're exercising 14,000 shares?

 

[AlMc]

Yes will be exercising 140 contracts with strike prices between 100 and 130 before expiration

Well, that is 'cheating'...not paying $280ish:wink:. Congratulations: May I get a loan?:biggrin:

 

[Chickenlittle]

You're exercising 14,000 shares?

Holding for a while. Will wait till jan just in case no longer in the money

 

[InTheShadows]

I'll be buying some common at these levels with the call options that I will be closing. This is to increase my delta and to take a bit of a breather. If it goes down $10 while I hold the common I will still be happy.

I was busy all day today so I didn't do anything. Only looked at my phone about 4 times while the market was open.

 

[DaveT]

Holding for a while. Will wait till jan just in case no longer in the money

Are you planning to sell some other holdings to exercise all the contracts? Or are you planning on selling some and exercising some?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Are you planning to sell some other holdings to exercise all the contracts? Or are you planning on selling some and exercising some?

As price goes up I periodically sell higher strike options to exercise. With pull significant pull backs I buy options again. The stock is less volatile so I loose less on pull back but participate on further increases if I pick wrong top. Other stocks I play options differently. Like Alcoa started with srike 10 leaps and as it goes past strike price sell and buy higher strike, garnering more contracts 2 to 3 x more each time. Have moved from 10 to 12 to 15 to 17 and now going to 20s. May play tesla like that as it matures

 

[AlMc]

As price goes up I periodically sell higher strike options to exercise. With pull significant pull backs I buy options again. The stock is less volatile so I loose less on pull back but participate on further increases if I pick wrong top. Other stocks I play options differently. Like Alcoa started with srike 10 leaps and as it goes past strike price sell and buy higher strike, garnering more contracts 2 to 3 x more each time. Have moved from 10 to 12 to 15 to 17 and now going to 20s. May play tesla like that as it matures

Interesting. Would you describe this strategy as a LEAPS in place of stock strategy as has been discussed before? I suppose it is different as you sell some of your options to buy stock but never sell stock to buy options (LEAPS). You fund stock purchases with roll ups using the cash generated to increase your stock position. Correct?