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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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Muskol
Member
Congrats all! Closed all my LEAPS throughout the day. Selling is the hardest part...
InTheShadows
Active Member
I bought some weekly $290's first thing this am when I saw the pre market. They ended up being 4 baggers. I didn't buy a lot, it was more of a test if theory.
The reason I did this was because of this video that DaveT found and shared with us this spring.
Tesla Million Dollar Trade
I woke up fully intending to do this (buy weeklies), even texted Techmaven my closing price prediction of $285. But I didn't -- was too busy. Oh well, my core long holdings are looking sweet as ever!
Dave said $290 this quarter on our last post-ER Google Hangout, and I do believe he will be right!
Congrats folks.
This is so wonderful, I am smiling ear-to-ear for you. I bought my first batch around $40 in March 2013, just before I got the MS I ordered in December. And now I am practically a compulsive buyer of TSLA.
chickensevil
Active Member
Sorry, seems like a waste of money... I keep trying to tell people how wrong they are in their thinking without degrading them (too much) because I hope they will see the light... But seems like they never do.
chickensevil
Active Member
Holy crap, if I am getting this correctly he made a trade the evening prior of 1 million$ and gained 500k overnight? That's some serious balls man... I don't even remember the circumstances behind Jan 16th to even recall what was happening that day that caused the pre-market jump. But I am confused how his trading for something overnight translates to you buying something on open? What am I missing here.
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Sorry, I got that, it was clearly a joke. Haha! I was just chiming in that I still don't understand them... and can't seem to grasp some of their logic in this... And yeah, I would never trust a thing that Peterson suggests or has a hand in...
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
No he made $1m one day and $0.5 the next, not clear how much he put on the line initially from watching the video I think optionswise he must have made several hundred percent on average. The event was a pre-announcement of increased production guidance at the NA auto show in Detroit
chickensevil
Active Member
Oh yeah, I thought that might have been it, but I wasn't sure on the timing exactly. That was a win for just about everyone here since most all of us were reading those tea leaves with pretty great clarity.
But that still doesn't explain how that had anything to do with buying the 290s for the week at the open and netting a 400% profit off them. That means he bought them around .25 and sold them around the 1$ mark (I am assuming he didn't get the perfect top here... but I also don't have fully clarity on the price action on those options...) In either case, any explanation into the theory you were working with would be appreciated, Theshadows
Not that I really intend to trade weeklies, I just don't feel confident in my abilities to work on that kind of timetable so I think for now I will stick with leaps or monthlies. But I assume the logic would work for any trade right?
InTheShadows
Active Member
Exactly. I remember it well and I watched the video and he was buying when and what I was selling. I was locking in my profits afraid of a pull back and he saw from the volume and the price action that the stock was ready to take off like a rocket.
This morning I knew from pre market rise and the $400 pt upgrade that today was going to be big. I knew this upgrade was going to be different because the report was first hand from a factory tour.
Then when the market opened with nice volume and a drop that quickly recovered I thought we would see a nice rally. I bought them within the first 15 minutes. I sold 1/4 in the begin stages of the big drop to get my investment back to ride the rest. I almost sold the rest of them at the bottom of the drop but held on because the volume was dropping as the price kept falling.
I still have those 290's. Either I will break even with them tomorrow and be satisfied or really happy.
I sold all of my 275's at 3:59 to lock in my gains. I didn't want to do it but would rather regret taking profits than to see a sharp pull back tomorrow am. I think tomorrow's open is going to be a war between the shorts and longs. I'm expecting big volitility, I think the momentum will keep is going but who knows what will happen.
I viewed this as a relatively low risk play. The reason is we had a good consolidation and there are a lot of catalyst on the horizon despite the recent run up. The momentum has returned and I feel that a lot of people want in on tsla again.
That being said I am nervous about Q3 ER and plan to have nothing near term going into them except for selling a covered call or two to test the iv crush theory. If I'm going to test that, I want to do it this ER and not on the year end. I think next year is going to be amazingly awesome!
Disclaimer: I made a lot of stupid moves this spring which means I am probably still making them.
chickensevil
Active Member
It's fine, I take everything together along with my own thoughts and decisions... and this forum is really an awesome way for us all to learn and grow together
I am still playing all of this off as the explosive growth that I was expecting after the cup and handle (which was most assuredly NOT a double top) so I anticipated we would get a push to send us higher we just needed some kind of catalyst. People took the China news as a catalyst on Friday (which hey, the market is desperate for news... I won't knock em) and we had already had the first report in about the positives of the factory upgrades coming along. Then today with the new PT and factory news this was certainly the REAL catalyst I was expecting. IF we retrace the last run up 100% punch for punch we could see it hit 317 (ish) for a 161.8% extension off the last low. So With the proper catalysts that is where I would expect the price to move to before you really risk super unknown territory. I personally plan to ditch whatever pre Q3 stuff I have either at 317 or a bit before it (I am thinking 300) and call it quits until post Q3... there is just too many things that screams to me to stay away from Q3...
Anyway, at best I might do an October option to profit off the rise to 300 if we don't see it happen in the next week or so and then I am going to just wait it out. Seems like the cool headed sane play.
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PS: What is the trading platform he is using in his videos because it seems WAAAAAY more robust than what I am using? Unless I have to pay for it... in which case... no thanks... I have to get most of my extra charting stuff from other sources, which is really annoying.
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The news confirming the factory ramp-up is excellent :biggrin: Positive news on Model X and Gigafactory is going to put even more Gigahurt on the short sellers...
Congrats my TMC investor friends! So, what happens now from our shorting friends? Will we get a new round of shorts buying now to replace the ones we just lost. Are they going to get in the way of what analysts have called 'The Animal' or 'The Train'??
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I expect a new round of shorts, because many people still do not understand Tesla Motors' products and long-term plans. If Model X is successful and construction of the Gigafactory proceeds, this cohort of short sellers will be crushed, leading to yet another round. I suspect that it will take a wildly successful Model 3, along with broad public adoption of BEVs, to utterly annihilate shorts driven primarily by denial, doubt, or ignorance.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
There will always be shorts, just as there will always be longs. And I'm pleased to say that I've been long for a very long, long time
.There will always be shorts, just as there will always be longs. And I'm pleased to say that I've been long for a very long, long time
I expect you are both right. I see a new round of FUD starting now with some gap filling and a psychological barrier with program selling at $300. We had that when trying to breach $200 as I recall. I sold some LEAPS ( the ones that were very sickly red 2 months ago...amazing what an injection of anti FUD analyst reports can do) and $270 weeklies that I purchased last week.
Good luck to all going forward. Not going to 'jinx it' by celebrating....no songs, no poems.......:wink:
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