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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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Citizen-T
Active Member
The converging of the upward and downward trends on ER day and day after will make this very interesting. I think we'll stay in the two trends until we get squeezed one way or the other at ER.
Hah! I was just looking at exactly this. The market seems to be setting up earnings day as a hugely important pivot point. Beating the market's expectation will break us out of the red channel and keep us in the green one. Disappointing will break us completely out of the up trend we've been in and send us spiraling back down to earth.
Exactly! So which one will it be? Do tell... please
I am leaning towards a downward move because at this point, I think expectations of a blow out have gotten carried away. Even with a good ER, I think the market will be unsatisfied. We have also lost a lot of momentum and sentiment in the last few weeks.
I think if deliveries are over 6k, we have a chance of breaking out to the upside. Anything under 6k will be underwhelming. Just my take.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I think the actual deliveries have a far smaller impact than future outlook. Look at the various earnings in the past weeks. It's the forecast beats that move the stock or kow guidance that kills it...
As Citizen has said in the past, do not underestimate the short-sightedness of the market, or the inadequacy of current professional analysis of this stock. Whether the price is an accurate reflection of future performance or not at any given moment in time, many of the methodologies and assumptions being employed to value this stock by people who make their living doing so are some combination of foolish, ignorant and/or deliberately misleading. I seriously doubt a full-scale Q3 beat has been adequately priced into the stock already, and I seriously doubt traders will be able to resist bidding up the stock if the world is once again "surprised" by Tesla's managerial performance.
While we like to think of ourselves as being watched closely here on this forum, that is just not the case in the full global scale of trading on this stock. On good days that feels pretty nice, on bad days, not so much. For me, I'm in this for the long haul. I believe Elon and Tesla are changing the world. Revolutions are never popular with the establishment, and they are never "smooth." They are full of bumps and fits and starts and stops. This one is proving to be no different.
I think Elon has some good news that will generate a pop post Q3 earnings. If there is no news and neutral to weak quarterly results the stock will tumble. It could be free fall territory and we'll be back to the $90's very quickly. No way he will let that happen. He has a lot of levers he can pull.
I think he may update on:
Model X development progress, on track, maybe start delivery end of Q3, 2014
2014 outlook updates, 40,000 units
Discussion of 30% margins, that's the goal in his Options package after all
Discussion of 2014 Mix by region. 50% US, 25% EU, 25% Asia
Battery Supply Discussion for sure. Already out in the news from the Germany video
Any of these could have a positive effect, i think he'll drop a few big items to ensure a positive takeaway.
I think he may update on:
Model X development progress, on track, maybe start delivery end of Q3, 2014
2014 outlook updates, 40,000 units
Discussion of 30% margins, that's the goal in his Options package after all
Discussion of 2014 Mix by region. 50% US, 25% EU, 25% Asia
Battery Supply Discussion for sure. Already out in the news from the Germany video
Any of these could have a positive effect, i think he'll drop a few big items to ensure a positive takeaway.
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Elon's interview on Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/elon...eserve-zf2ULoeGTWeP~~WaUpI1Uw.html?cmpid=yhoo
Terrible headline
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/elon...eserve-zf2ULoeGTWeP~~WaUpI1Uw.html?cmpid=yhoo
Terrible headline
Tesla hires Apple VP:
http://www.teslamotors.com/about/pr...res-apple-vp-doug-field-lead-vehicle-programs
http://www.teslamotors.com/about/pr...res-apple-vp-doug-field-lead-vehicle-programs
Tesla UK Store Official Opening
"
20:09: Musk “we can’t really afford to do advertising. We’re relying on people like you.” Emphasises the importance of fans spreading the word about the Tesla Model S.
20:10. Musk: “We’re taking the UK market very serious. First UK RHD car due to be delivered in March. It’ll go to a “fairly high profile person.
20:10. “We’re going to establish the supercharger network thorough the UK. You’ll be able to travel anywhere in the UK by Supercharger network.”
20:11. Musk: First UK Superchargers due next quarter. Will have the whole country covered by the end of next year.
20:11. Musk: Service centres will be throughout the UK"
So, first RHD Model S goes to Prince George. Gratz cutie (Just kidding)
Great news across the board today. Tesla coming back with a vengeance.
"
20:09: Musk “we can’t really afford to do advertising. We’re relying on people like you.” Emphasises the importance of fans spreading the word about the Tesla Model S.
20:10. Musk: “We’re taking the UK market very serious. First UK RHD car due to be delivered in March. It’ll go to a “fairly high profile person.
20:10. “We’re going to establish the supercharger network thorough the UK. You’ll be able to travel anywhere in the UK by Supercharger network.”
20:11. Musk: First UK Superchargers due next quarter. Will have the whole country covered by the end of next year.
20:11. Musk: Service centres will be throughout the UK"
So, first RHD Model S goes to Prince George. Gratz cutie
(Just kidding)Great news across the board today. Tesla coming back with a vengeance.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I don't think expectations are that high. I thought they were going to be, but the news about how many cars Tesla delivered has largely been drowned out.
I think we need a GAAP profit, we need roughly 6,000 deliveries, and we need >=20% margins. More importantly we need guidance for >25% margin by end of year and 23,000-25,000 deliveries. Also, I want to hear >=35k units for next year at ~30% margins. Finally, we need to say the word "China" a lot.
- still held (cost 3.52)
- 2013/10/24 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 3.25 SOLD (cost 2.77)
- 2013/10/24 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 3.25 SOLD (cost 2.77)
- 2013/10/24 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 3.10 SOLD (cost 2.02)
- 2013/10/24 TSLA NOV 16 13 CALL $215 @ 3.10 SOLD (cost 2.38)
This was actually two transactions (not 4) but I wanted to show how the blocks lined up.
You are a nasty man. haha I wish I had that. Unfortunately I'm still under water...
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I thought the same exact thing.
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I thought the same exact thing.
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