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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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- TSLA
Nice to see TSLA stop bleeding, though it really doesn't help me much at this point other than make my LEAPS look less bad. My shorter term items are still have to reach the ~175 and ~180 just to avoid a total loss. Break even is another ~5% beyond those. I suppose every inch makes it at least a possibility, which is better than not.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I guess it depends how tight your calls are. If they are weeklies, then good luck with that (not impossible though, some serious good news leaks and TSLA might rally $20 in an hour i.e. earnings draft leaks like GOOG had a couple of quarters back). If they are post ER, then anything's possible and I wouldn't write them off yet.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I wanted to just throw out an idea while i'm at work. I posted over in that poll column about how we may end up being the victims of confirmation bias.
I was wondering if anyone would want to start up a threat that is a "here is why tesla is overvalued" thread, bringing legitimate or semi-legitimate reasons that shorts could use against tesla and then we as a group could then discuss whether they will truly have an impact.
I was wondering if anyone would want to start up a threat that is a "here is why tesla is overvalued" thread, bringing legitimate or semi-legitimate reasons that shorts could use against tesla and then we as a group could then discuss whether they will truly have an impact.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I think this might be a good idea, but I don't have the finance background to really contribute much.
At this stage of Tesla's growth, I don't think it will be easy to give the company any definitive valuation. There are too many variables at play, and the usual measures of profitability don't apply to a company that spends all its earnings on capital improvements and R&D.
Right now my faith in TSLA is purely based on my research of the technology and more importantly, the leadership talent. I have no clue what the company is worth, now or 10 years from now. All I know is that Tesla builds something worth buying, has great technology, and a team that is driven to make good on execution of plans.
They should have just given the 10B to Tesla and they'd have a GM replacement soon enough
Great point Mario. Ironic considering GM was well on their way to building the US's first mass-market EV.
We can only hope that this is a lesson to put money like that into organizations that bring revolutionary products to market instead of supporting the status quo.
sub
Active Member
Ding! Your fighting an uphill battle if you want to justify tesla's stock price based on the usual "fundamentals". The bears can make their comparisons but in the end neither can predict the future. I bought TSLA because I believe in the technology is the direction we are heading. I'm no expert on the numbers either, but I read every article plus comments section, no way we as a group can tear down tsla in more ways than have already been attempted. I personally would rather the haters don't see us discussing it on these forums, they will only use it against tsla and soon enough they will be linking the thread to their articles and comments. No thanks.
'Morning everyone!
The last ten days have been the most frustrating days I can recall! I never was so busy at work and didn't have time to look, think and act on what happened since last monday when it started to tank...
The result as well is I couldn't benefit of the dip to buy more or to average down what was becomoing a losing positions (Calls) and I could only watch it from time to time, red all over the place...and I had to get rid of some oct calls at a pretty big loss last week. Anyway, that's it. Not the first one, not the last one.
So now I was wondering what to do: I have Nov Calls, 170, 16th of nov., losing 45%.... among some others. What's the best course of action: leave them and wait for a possible rebound this week, or sell at loss, and re-invest?
Generally, what about IV till ER? And shortly after ER?
I learnt a few lessons again about greed, timing...
The last ten days have been the most frustrating days I can recall! I never was so busy at work and didn't have time to look, think and act on what happened since last monday when it started to tank...
The result as well is I couldn't benefit of the dip to buy more or to average down what was becomoing a losing positions (Calls) and I could only watch it from time to time, red all over the place...and I had to get rid of some oct calls at a pretty big loss last week. Anyway, that's it. Not the first one, not the last one.
So now I was wondering what to do: I have Nov Calls, 170, 16th of nov., losing 45%.... among some others. What's the best course of action: leave them and wait for a possible rebound this week, or sell at loss, and re-invest?
Generally, what about IV till ER? And shortly after ER?
I learnt a few lessons again about greed, timing...
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I would probably watch what happens today. The big news on Panasonic deal sent out as a press release by Tesla a couple of hours ago should be a very positive catalyst and general market seems green today (Asia up 2%, EU up 0.7% already, pre-market US futures up) so it's likely that today we'll see some kind of rally. How much is unsure. Depending how expensively you bought those $170's I'd feel relatively safe with them. They are not that far OTM, that we might not even put them ITM today and if the Q3 ER is positive, then getting them to break even or bring profit shouldn't be hard. For people holding $190-$210 calls I'd be more worried, but holding $170 should not be an issue (unless you bought them for $30). IV wise the peak of IV will be on 5th of November 1 second before market close
There will be a huge IV crunch on 6th dropping fast after market open unless TSLA does a HUGE beat and there is a rally, but even then there will be an IV drop. I myself am holding Nov 16th $170's, Dec $175, $180 calls and March $180 and January 2015 $190 calls. And at the moment even though I'm about 20% in the red with my portfolio I feel relatively safe with the news this morning. I do plan to hedge the November calls at least most of them for risk-free spreads if I can get $190-$200 range calls for the same price, but the December and later ones I think I'll run naked through Q3 ER.
Thanks Mario!
I will wait a bit and hope for a rallye today and untill friday.
Though I have little hopes. It's been green for almost half an hour and then red again Like yesterday, roughly same time for the big dive!
I had bought those 170 for +/- 19$, not all hope is lost of course
I better go outside and garden a bit i.o. looking at this bloodbath!
I will wait a bit and hope for a rallye today and untill friday.
Though I have little hopes. It's been green for almost half an hour and then red again
Like yesterday, roughly same time for the big dive!I had bought those 170 for +/- 19$, not all hope is lost of course
I better go outside and garden a bit i.o. looking at this bloodbath!
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
So, I've been wondering about the TSLA chassis for a while and am wondering about its strength after the two fire accidents. I want to see something similar to "will it blend" but with tesla chassis, but the twist is to turn it into "will it blow" the main premise is to check whether or not the battery pack can withstand a landmine.
Hopefully I can get a destroyed chassis for cheap and blow it up. Anyone else interested In this?
Hopefully I can get a destroyed chassis for cheap and blow it up. Anyone else interested In this?
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Anybody looking for some divertissement?
Here is a new interview with EM from german television ZDF:
Verpasste Zukunft
first video is about EVs in Germany in general (in German language), second video is the interview (in english).
Any ideas where in Germany the video was recorded?
Maybe it's time again for a good glas of italien red wine?
Good luck to all.
Regards from Germany.
Here is a new interview with EM from german television ZDF:
Verpasste Zukunft
first video is about EVs in Germany in general (in German language), second video is the interview (in english).
Any ideas where in Germany the video was recorded?
Maybe it's time again for a good glas of italien red wine?
Good luck to all.
Regards from Germany.
Great video. Lots of good current information. Thank you!
We are now dependent on our neighbors to deliver our news since our browsers, search engines and internet providers push us only local information and topics. Big frustration!
Appreciate the assistance!
I sold a long-term put. Seems I can get a little more bullish in my positions and also earn some premium on the options which seems to be pretty high right now. It is crazy because this is a Jan 2015 pt with a 160 strike. I sold it for $43. The breakeven is $117. Anyone buying these thinks TSLA will be under $100 by 2015. To me that seems pretty unlikely so I'm happy to take their money.
I'm cross pollinating (This is quoted from the 2nd fire effect thread) as I think this is the right bin;
I'm in that boat. It's been a few weeks of stormy weather and I've taken some good sized losses on Options. However, when I look at my overall portfolio - it's still up by a very healthy margin, and I really worked to convince myself this week, each day, that although the stock price never does what I want, I'm still sitting on massive paper profits as a result of believing in the fundamentals of TSLA since we first became acquainted. The amount I am up (while nearly halfed) was enough just a few month ago to make me feel pretty good about myself and Tesla. A lot of that was bad options plays, but I just consider it the cost of education.
As many have pointed out, the fundamentals have not changed. If anything, they are stronger than ever. We're finally getting our first taste of the actual Euro/Asia demand and, today's battery announcement confirms what we've been telling each other for months. I'm quietly jubilant that there is a tsunami of good news that is quietly brewing. As one poster pointed out, Elon's pre Q1 tweet was disregarded by many, and the fact that this battery announcement is getting similar treatment is totally confounding me. This is huge, it validates what we've all been saying for so long. The fires have been annoying, but we all knew that any chink in Tesla's armour would cause a tumble. I'm not surprised, I just wish I had bought some puts at $194.50.
I have no idea what Q3 will actually bring, but so far the signs are looking good. I've learned a lot about investing since Q1, and as much as I want to put my money where my mouth is, I'm sticking to the same strategy I had last month, Nov 200's and common holdings. More leverage may yield more gain, but I'm not sophisticated enough to really know what I'm doing. I could get this totally wrong, and while that will hurt, it will not even come close to breaking me. Anything I've gotten from TSLA so far has been a gift via the insight of this board.
I'd honestly be happy if I never made a cent off Tesla. Just to hear that they are taking on the world and succeeding is awesome.
I'm in that boat. It's been a few weeks of stormy weather and I've taken some good sized losses on Options. However, when I look at my overall portfolio - it's still up by a very healthy margin, and I really worked to convince myself this week, each day, that although the stock price never does what I want, I'm still sitting on massive paper profits as a result of believing in the fundamentals of TSLA since we first became acquainted. The amount I am up (while nearly halfed) was enough just a few month ago to make me feel pretty good about myself and Tesla. A lot of that was bad options plays, but I just consider it the cost of education.
As many have pointed out, the fundamentals have not changed. If anything, they are stronger than ever. We're finally getting our first taste of the actual Euro/Asia demand and, today's battery announcement confirms what we've been telling each other for months. I'm quietly jubilant that there is a tsunami of good news that is quietly brewing. As one poster pointed out, Elon's pre Q1 tweet was disregarded by many, and the fact that this battery announcement is getting similar treatment is totally confounding me. This is huge, it validates what we've all been saying for so long. The fires have been annoying, but we all knew that any chink in Tesla's armour would cause a tumble. I'm not surprised, I just wish I had bought some puts at $194.50.
I have no idea what Q3 will actually bring, but so far the signs are looking good. I've learned a lot about investing since Q1, and as much as I want to put my money where my mouth is, I'm sticking to the same strategy I had last month, Nov 200's and common holdings. More leverage may yield more gain, but I'm not sophisticated enough to really know what I'm doing. I could get this totally wrong, and while that will hurt, it will not even come close to breaking me. Anything I've gotten from TSLA so far has been a gift via the insight of this board.
I'd honestly be happy if I never made a cent off Tesla. Just to hear that they are taking on the world and succeeding is awesome.
ShortSlaver
Member
I think you're overreading. When I buy puts or calls (so far at least), I'm never letting them ride 'til expiration.
Also, let's look at your specific example in another light. Jan 2015. That's roughly 14 months, or $3.07 per month.
So (1) if you don't think that TSLA will be below $160 on any monthly expiration day between now Jan 2015 and (2) you think you can sell a monthly put for at least $3.08 sometime each month... then you're better off selling 14 separate puts instead of the single long put.
Take today for example. The 160 puts for November are:
- Nov 01 @ $3.45
- Nov 08 @ 11.22
- Nov 16 @ 12.78
- Nov 22 @ 13.53
- Nov 29 @ 13.79
Even Nov 01 puts (only 2 days away!) are more profitable per month than the Jan '15 put. And the other 4 choices are 3-4x more profitable.
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