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Solar developments in short & long term

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Posing a general question...

Maybe asking for those in the industry or otherwise in the know (which I certainly am not)....

What are going to be the most significant developments / changes in products available for home solar (panels / tiles / batteries / inverters) in the next 5 years? 10-15years??

(aka - how much buyer's remorse should I count on having in the near future????)
 
You can't look forward into the future to predict what might be available. There are too many variables that you won't have access to sitting in your armchair.

The biggies: Getting a technology product to mass market is a complex matrix of the right people in the right positions of the company, having the rights to the necessary intellectual property, the right technology, the right technology being used on the right problem, the problem having a way to monetize it that pays for further product development, funding (at the right time, the right valuation, and the right investors), a way to make the product reliably and at an appropriate cost, a way to sell the product to customers at the right cost, and a way to take care of customers at the right cost and time. Plus clearing any regulatory and logistics hoops that may be necessary, at an appropriate time. And finally, you have to have the right product at the right time. Delivering a new stagecoach suspension technology today, may be the right product, but it is now the wrong time. Even for venture capitalists, only a very very small percentage of them (in the neighborhood of one percent) get it right in their area of expertise one time in ten. And that is the track record for the professionals.

It isn't simple. There are literally a zillion ways for something to go wrong. I was in an early investor in a company that went down the tubes because the founder and CTO died unexpectedly of a heart attack and he was so brilliant there was nobody in the world to replace him. Nikola Tesla was right about the importance of alternating current, but wasn't as successful with selling it in the market as Edison was with DC, who had to come back later and transition to AC to move power beyond a neighborhood. (Who gets the "win"? Tesla for right technology, but losing sales, Edison for the wrong technology, but selling better?)

So...buyers remorse. Don't go there would be my advice. Buy whatever it is, enjoy it, and don't lose sleep over what might come next.

You might wake up tomorrow to find that everything with silicon in it is obsolete, or non-functional. (Non-zero probabilities, but how close to zero matters. If you had passed on taking up iron tools when they first emerged, you wouldn't have missed much, nor would your immediate descendants. Passing on the first autos wouldn't have affected you much, but it would have affected your immediate descendants. Not adopting a smartphone when they came to market would have profound implications for your life. Not taking an antibiotic today when you have septicemia, would profoundly affect your tomorrow, and the potential for a day after.)

All the best,

BG
 
I think LFP batteries are going to take over as they cost less (but have lower energy density which doesn’t matter for stationary storage). I don’t think it would be worth waiting if solar + storage works for you now as seems like the cost of everything is going up lately and you can start getting the benefit now.
 
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Well, I did not mean to focus on the buyer's remorse point or the change in public policy angle.
But was getting at people's impressions as to what was going to change and by how much from a technology standpoint.
How much more efficient panels and tiles were going to get...something on the horizon known about to hit the market or otherwise.
My thinking was mainly in line w- Travwill, we are at harder push got improve Pv efficiency but battery storage could still make significant strides in cost and size.
Assumed maybe something else out there on the horizon...
 
(pure speculation, since that is what it appears is being asked for)

I am thinking that its possible for there to be a new version of the powerwall by the end of this year.

I also think more car manufacturers other than tesla will lean into Vehicle to Home (V2H).

I believe that, in response, tesla will at some point enable V2H but only for those who already have a tesla gateway with tesla powerwalls, marketing it as an integrated solution to supplement your powerwalls with your vehicle in an emergency. I believe that would cause much gnashing of teeth, except for those in this subforum, many of which already have teslas gateway so would benefit.

I believe that NEM 3.0 will, in the short term, pretty much kill solar installs until it is either changed or pulled back some.
 
Solar panels are being produced at scale. The logical next step is producing batteries at that scale. It follows that local, state and the feds will cut back on solar incentives as this happens and customers realize they can cut out their power utility entirely with enough battery capacity (I'd guess a 20:1 battery to solar capacity ratio). Once it becomes economically feasible to have 300KWh of batteries in your house and they last 10,000 cycles (LFP batteries likely) there really wouldn't be a need for the utility. I really don't see V2H being useful unless they switch to similar high cycle batteries (which they may). I'm pretty pessimistic on the timescale of this being feasible, my guess is 30 years because of raw material supply issues. In 5 to 10 years not much will change except for higher adoption of electric cars. Consider that Sunpower began volume production of 22.4% efficient panels in 2007, 15 years ago.
 
I would expect a continued evolution in battery efficiency and cost. Lithium sources will be a challenge for at least a decade, so anything with much lithium in it won't get much cheaper even as lithium production scales. Specifically that means EVs and home batteries.

Like @jjrandorin, I expect more V2H deployment, and perhaps V2G as the value of peak shaving becomes more apparent to IOUs. The great thing for them about a customer owned vehicle doing V2G is the low cost of that capital for the peaker power.

In the five to ten year range I don't see anything major for solar cells. Non-silicon alternatives are still being proven out, and basically all of them won't make it. I don't know of one that I would bet on at the moment. The capacity to deliver 6'x16' (2x5m) solar panels that could be installed in half an hour has existed for more than five years. Look for improvements like that to reduce the installation costs. Home installs are still high labor undertakings in the grand scheme of things, e.g. one off planning, permits, roof work, electrical, clean up. (Not like getting a new water heater or furnace for example.)

A federal policy on uniform solar installation regulations would free up contractors to work across jurisdictions with standard solutions at lower cost. (Might happen) This would help national chains cookie cutter their energy sources, easing adoption. Expect to see more parking lots and commercial buildings covered with solar if that happens.

Given supply chains, global sources of components, and the current geopolitics, I think the prime types of buyers remorse that I see in the next five years are going to be more along the lines of "I wish I had bought that and installed it in 2022", or "I should have visited 'fill in the blank' while it was still possible."

All the best,

BG
 
Solar panels are being produced at scale. The logical next step is producing batteries at that scale. It follows that local, state and the feds will cut back on solar incentives as this happens and customers realize they can cut out their power utility entirely with enough battery capacity (I'd guess a 20:1 battery to solar capacity ratio). Once it becomes economically feasible to have 300KWh of batteries in your house and they last 10,000 cycles (LFP batteries likely) there really wouldn't be a need for the utility. I really don't see V2H being useful unless they switch to similar high cycle batteries (which they may). I'm pretty pessimistic on the timescale of this being feasible, my guess is 30 years because of raw material supply issues. In 5 to 10 years not much will change except for higher adoption of electric cars. Consider that Sunpower began volume production of 22.4% efficient panels in 2007, 15 years ago.
I would like to see a switch to higher cycle batteries like LFP. Tesla is already using them in China, so we could see them in a next gen Powerwall. And I hope when that appears it is compatible with existing Powerwalls. We decided early on to limit ourselves to 2 Powerwalls initially and then upgrade with a next gen system version appears.
 
Most consumers are not concerned as much about technology, but about cost per kWh and time of use.

Few care about how efficient or how much each panel costs, but about how much it will cost to lower their electric bill.

I found that by installing a Quiet Cool whole house fan to my attic, that it reduced the number of panels I needed to install.

Payback for the combination of Quiet Cool fan, Tesla Solar panels and Tax Credits made my payback period just over 3 years.

Living in inland Socal, the days are hot, the nights cool. Installing fan allowed me to cut the necessary solar panels in half.

Tons of $ are currently being spent to make more efficient panels, Unfortunately inflation seems to pulling the costs up at the same time.