SolarCity (SCTY)

[tslas]

From the article you linked:

However, the company just announced what it's calling High Efficiency Honey Ultra, a module that purportedly has a 24.4% efficiency rating. Considering that its current panels operate at around 16% efficiency, and SunPower's industry-leading panels are closer to 21% -- almost 32% more power output per panel than Trina's -- this could be a remarkable breakthrough for the company, if it could translate that module efficiency to a panel efficiency near 20%.


This guy has completely no idea what he is talking about. I think that The Motley Fool should be completely embarrassed for letting this fool write this article about solar panels. He is completely clueless, and there are more errors in that one paragraph than I can count (I did not read the rest of the article though):

1. Module and panel is the exact same thing. The author does not understand this.
2. The High Efficiency Honey Ultra module that TSL just created is a p-type mono module that was created in a lab under perfect conditions to break some meaningless record for p-type panels. I estimate that the module had roughly ~20% efficiency, but the actual production module of the exact same module will have roughly 17% - 18% efficiency at best.
3. The 24.4% that he is referring to is a cell that uses IBC technology (Interdigitated back contact solar cells). This IBC cell is completely different than the p-type mono cell used in the Honey Ultra Modules. The 24.4% has nothing to do with the Honey ultra module. This author is mixing up two completely different technologies.

There are very few people in this world that actually have a relatively good grasp of the solar industry. Most of the people that write about solar do not understand it at all. Most of the people that work in the solar industry do not understand it all. Most of the people in the utility industry do not understand it at all.

The solar industry is completely misunderstood and it will take a few years before people actually start getting it. Fortunately for us solar demand is growing so strong that people will need to start understanding it better in a very short period of time, because it is going to grow out of control and that is dangerous without understanding consequences.

Sleepyhead,
Thanks for your thoughts on that article. To be fair to author, though, he/she also is skeptical of this new panels from Trina (Hence I said "not guaranteed yet") and advices to stay with SPWR (Though article is more for the stock)..
I certainly didn't know about p-type and IBC.. off to google to learn about it .
Thanks again.

 

[sleepyhead]

Sleepyhead - my question was missed yesterday. For those that buy, what happens with the utility that you are signed on with when their rates go up every year vs. a fixed rate for 20 years with Solarcity. Does it matter? Does the solar system produce enough energy that even with increases over the years you will always come out even or ahead?

See what NigelM said, but just know that any state can just pull the net metering plug at any time and then you are screwed.

California guaranteed net metering for 20 years with it's recent law change, but other states can do what they want. You will then need battery storage.

You are getting screwed whether you buy or lease. But it would be easier to sell your house with a paid for system than a lease if net metering goes away.

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Sorry for my font in the previous post, but I can't edit it

 

[NigelM]

California guaranteed net metering for 20 years with it's recent law change, but other states can do what they want.

Ggies07 (and anyone else), take a look at this very easy to search Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DISRE) for state by state rules, programs and laws.

 

[tslas]

Here is info directly from a SCTY presentation:


You can find it here:http://investors.solarcity.com/events.cfm

It is an up to date presentation. So we know that SCTY's avg. rate is $0.141/kWh.

It is not a very attractive rate like the $0.03 or $0.08/kWH being thrown around here.

That is what current energy companies are charging.. Not Solarcity..

 

[futureproof]

Ggies07 (and anyone else), take a look at this very easy to search Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DISRE) for state by state rules, programs and laws.

NigelM, great site...

 

[sleepyhead]

That is what current energy companies are charging.. Not Solarcity..
View attachment 47372

You might be right, because it is poorly worded.

But I think that the slide says the we charge $0.141/kWh blended average cost, and that 377,000GWh of electricity gets sold in the US each year at a price above $0.141 (and the rest is sold below that price), so that is an addressable market.

That is how I understand it, I am fairly certain that is what they are saying here. But like I said it is poorly worded and I might be wrong.

 

[ggies07]

If you have a net metering set-up your power produced and used is measured in units and only the net surplus/deficit at the end of the year is refunded/charged at whatever the prevailing rates are. In other words, as the rates from your powerco increase then so does the value of the power your solar system produces. If you get the calculations right you'll always come out even (although there is some degradation of panel performance over the years) and provided your power consumption doesn't increase. Leasing at a fixed rate might cost more in the long run but it also gives peace of mind to many folks.

See what NigelM said, but just know that any state can just pull the net metering plug at any time and then you are screwed.

California guaranteed net metering for 20 years with it's recent law change, but other states can do what they want. You will then need battery storage.

You are getting screwed whether you buy or lease. But it would be easier to sell your house with a paid for system than a lease if net metering goes away.

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Sorry for my font in the previous post, but I can't edit it

Ggies07 (and anyone else), take a look at this very easy to search Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DISRE) for state by state rules, programs and laws.

Thanks guys! Yeah, I was just thinking if I bought a certain size system now, that in 10-20 years with the increases from utility if it would still be a benefit compared to leasing and locking in that rate.

 

[futureproof]

Thanks guys! Yeah, I was just thinking if I bought a certain size system now, that in 10-20 years with the increases from utility if it would still be a benefit compared to leasing and locking in that rate.

Net metering will change. It's just a matter of how and what new form it will take. The original design didn't take into account millions of homes going solar. Thus far, Solarcity is seemingly the only one aggressively pursuing a new "net metering"business model(for a lack of a better term) with PV+networked energy storage. If anyone out there can provide me with another company equally moving forward like Solarcity, please let me know...

 

[ggies07]

So if net metering goes away in the future, all that surplus energy that is produced does not go to your account and therefore you pay what? Only the amount of energy you use off the panels + the utility fee? So it's not a benefit anymore then? Well, I mean it is yes, you are still getting energy from the sun, just not at a better deal.

 

[sleepyhead]

So if net metering goes away in the future, all that surplus energy that is produced does not go to your account and therefore you pay what? Only the amount of energy you use off the panels + the utility fee? So it's not a benefit anymore then? Well, I mean it is yes, you are still getting energy from the sun, just not at a better deal.

Right now if you pay $0.12/kWh then the utility pays you the same $0.12 for what you send out to the grid with net metering. Without net metering, they might pay you at wholesale energy prices of ~$0.05/kWh or avoided fuel cost at $0.03/kWh or maybe nothing. It is hard to say.

Net metering is like having free battery storage. But if it goes away and you have to install battery storage, then it is an extra cost for you. I would gladly go off the grid if I could, because utilities and politicians are going to try to screw us on solar anyway they can:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/16/3427392/oklahoma-fee-solar-wind/

 

[futureproof]

So if net metering goes away in the future, all that surplus energy that is produced does not go to your account and therefore you pay what? Only the amount of energy you use off the panels + the utility fee? So it's not a benefit anymore then? Well, I mean it is yes, you are still getting energy from the sun, just not at a better deal.

Net metering will change, not necessarily go away. It is going to evolve. I think storage will create the ability for you as the owner/leasee to sell your stored energy in addition to your day time production. The grid has problems with the uncontrolled surging and tapering of solar, so storage could really benefit this area. Also, I've read that only about 10% of grid energy produced is used by the end user, so redirected distributed stored energy could really up this percentage significantly.

bottom line, net metering will evolve, retail rates will be adjusted, energy storage will be at the center of it all, IMO.

 

[ggies07]

Right now if you pay $0.12/kWh then the utility pays you the same $0.12 for what you send out to the grid with net metering. Without net metering, they might pay you at wholesale energy prices of ~$0.05/kWh or avoided fuel cost at $0.03/kWh or maybe nothing. It is hard to say.

Net metering is like having free battery storage. But if it goes away and you have to install battery storage, then it is an extra cost for you. I would gladly go off the grid if I could, because utilities and politicians are going to try to screw us on solar anyway they can:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/16/3427392/oklahoma-fee-solar-wind/

oh, i see. So if it ever went away or change, then you would still pay nothing for your electricity bills because of the panels, it's just that you would not get any extra back.

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Net metering will change, not necessarily go away. It is going to evolve. I think storage will create the ability for you as the owner/leasee to sell your stored energy in addition to your day time production. The grid has problems with the uncontrolled surging and tapering of solar, so storage could really benefit this area. Also, I've read that only about 10% of grid energy produced is used by the end user, so redirected distributed stored energy could really up this percentage significantly.

bottom line, net metering will evolve, retail rates will be adjusted, energy storage will be at the center of it all, IMO.

I see. Yeah, I remember someone else on hear saying net metering was not the best option, but some other form of payment, can't remember. What happens to people who are leasing panels, but can't afford a battery storage system?......Will there be no negative impact, they just won't reap the benefits like others that will have them?

 

[sleepyhead]

oh, i see. So if it ever went away or change, then you would still pay nothing for your electricity bills because of the panels, it's just that you would not get any extra back.

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I see. Yeah, I remember someone else on hear saying net metering was not the best option, but some other form of payment, can't remember. What happens to people who are leasing panels, but can't afford a battery storage system?......Will there be no negative impact, they just won't reap the benefits like others that will have them?

No, that is not true that your bill would be $0. The only reason your bill is $0 (for illustration purposes) is because if you use 1000kWh and produce 1000kWh, it gets netted via net metering leading to $0 bill.

But if you generate all 1000kWh in the day (duh!) and lets say you use 0kWh during the day, but use 1000kWh all during the night then without net metering your solar panels are doing you absolutely no favor at all and the grid gets to keep all generated electricity for free.

With net metering you are paying 0.12, but the grid is paying you 0.12 as well for what you generate, so it offsets leading to $0 bill.

But if they take away net metering, and pay you $0.06/kWh instead then you are buying 1000kWh*0.12 = $120, while they are paying you 1000*0.06 = $60. So your bill is now $60 even though you generated 1000kWh and used the same amount.

 

[futureproof]

oh, i see. So if it ever went away or change, then you would still pay nothing for your electricity bills because of the panels, it's just that you would not get any extra back.

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I see. Yeah, I remember someone else on hear saying net metering was not the best option, but some other form of payment, can't remember. What happens to people who are leasing panels, but can't afford a battery storage system?......Will there be no negative impact, they just won't reap the benefits like others that will have them?

Solarcity is developing a $0 PV+storage lease for residential. This is their optimal product. They are already doing it with their commercial demand logic product. Again, it will be important to keep our ears open on results and further developments in the q1 conf call, or q2 conf call. Remember, Elon said in his Amsterdam talk he is looking for late 2014/early 2015 for a ramped up energy storage roll out. Since this CPUC decision came so suddenly, might be earlier... Just going to have to see...

it it is interesting to note that Elon's energy storage ramp objective coincides with the 18650 Panasonic agreement ramp projections for 2014....

 

[ggies07]

No, that is not true that your bill would be $0. The only reason your bill is $0 (for illustration purposes) is because if you use 1000kWh and produce 1000kWh, it gets netted via net metering leading to $0 bill.

But if you generate all 1000kWh in the day (duh!) and lets say you use 0kWh during the day, but use 1000kWh all during the night then without net metering your solar panels are doing you absolutely no favor at all and the grid gets to keep all generated electricity for free.

With net metering you are paying 0.12, but the grid is paying you 0.12 as well for what you generate, so it offsets leading to $0 bill.

But if they take away net metering, and pay you $0.06/kWh instead then you are buying 1000kWh*0.12 = $120, while they are paying you 1000*0.06 = $60. So your bill is now $60 even though you generated 1000kWh and used the same amount.

ooh, now I'm starting understand. Thanks! Well, I really don't know what to do on buying vs leasing. All you have given great arguments for both sides. My wife does not want to sign a 20 year contract nor take out a loan from the bank. I told her then I guess we use one of her bonuses at the end of the year after the tax deduction and she is still hesitant. haha. I've told her all I've learned from here, she is just being tricky me thinks!

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Solarcity is developing a $0 PV+storage lease for residential. This is their optimal product. They are already doing it with their commercial demand logic product. Again, it will be important to keep our ears open on results and further developments in the q1 conf call, or q2 conf call. Remember, Elon said in his Amsterdam talk he is looking for late 2014/early 2015 for a ramped up energy storage roll out. Since this CPUC decision came so suddenly, might be earlier... Just going to have to see...

it it is interesting to note that Elon's energy storage ramp objective coincides with the 18650 Panasonic agreement ramp projections for 2014....

Interesting.....

 

[futureproof]

ooh, now I'm starting understand. Thanks! Well, I really don't know what to do on buying vs leasing. All you have given great arguments for both sides. My wife does not want to sign a 20 year contract nor take out a loan from the bank. I told her then I guess we use one of her bonuses at the end of the year after the tax deduction and she is still hesitant. haha. I've told her all I've learned from here, she is just being tricky me thinks!

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Interesting.....

You could go off grid with your PV+storage. That will be an option. However, probably forgo the utility back up if you need more energy, also possibly forgo being able to sell PV and storage energy you don't use. Just going to have to see how Solarcity develops this since they will most likely be the first to do it. Also have to remember Solarcity could approach all utilities with their networked solar solution, sort of like a capacity builder/engineer for utilities to become more efficient agile companies. So need to imagine the same utility structure just Solarcity might be the single thread to connect them all. Then things get really interesting....

 

[HenryF]

Does any one have a reference to the current market breakdown between leases vs purchases?

I know for scty it's 90%+ vs <10%. I am curious to know what the overall market split is. or even better what the market split is in the 14 states that solar city services in.

 

[futureproof]

Watch this video, replace internet with networked energy storage and you might come to a similar conclusion where Solarcity is heading in the long run...

Elon Musk: How the Internet is Changing Humanity - YouTube

@HenryF, I don't think anyone releases that split. However, in general terms, the top two residential companies(Solarcity,vivint) are lease/ppa heavy... But, that probably didn't help you at all(sorry!). It would be great if someone secretly knows and would share that info here

 

[HenryF]

This video has a thorough analysis of lease vs own debate in an overall market perspective.

It's from GTM Solar Summit 2014.

Solar Summit 2014: Opportunities and Threats in the Residential Solar Market, Recorded on 4/16/14 GreentechMedia on USTREAM. Conference

 

[futureproof]

I think we are talking about separate things. I was talking about the backlog in terms of contract to install delay. I realize the crews are growing fast so the size of the backlog is meaningless. In terms of customer service a short backlog is excellent.

If you know anything about the CA energy market, I'd love to know the spread between the cost of leasing a system per KwH vs. buying from the utility. Keeping track of that spread would be interesting to see if it widens over time, increasing the "discount" leasing customer gain from leaving the utility. I am not a customer so I'm not familiar with the contract rate for leasing in CA vs. the utility rate.

Someone please post any link to any video of tomorrow's COO speech. That sound be a very interesting video or transcript.

Here are all the videos to this year's Solar Summit. I think the video that shows up first is not one of solarcity's session, so you might have to explore videos to get to the "solar is mainstream" session...

Solar Summit 2014: GTM Research: Surveying the LatAm Solar Landscape, Recorded on 4/16/14 GreentechMedia on USTREAM. Conference