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jhm
Well-Known Member
Thanks. The journalist's read on Rive seems to be at odds with the actual quote. I've heard elsewhere Lyndon express disappointment in another major distributed solar installer (probably, Vivint by name, but I do not recall distinctly) that was not willing to stand with the industry on policy. Lyndon was certainly not happy with that. But if Lyndon is happy with this deal, it may be an ironic view that a captured competitor will be less competition for SolarCity. It will be interesting if Vivint begins to lose market share as most acquisitions tend to destroy more value than they create.
I think it is very safe to say that commercial segment will grow pretty substantially. Last ER they said their gaining lots of traction in the commercial segment and with the expansion of zep solar into the UK market it speaks very well of the hardware.
Edit:
It has been a little while now but in the GTM podcast that featured Lyndon that I linked way up thread he "calls out" vivant solar on not contributing at all to policy and talks about how they need to step it up since policy plays such an important roll.
In the Fireside chat someone linked upthread (foghat maybe?) Lyndon mentions a bill that almost passed that would require solar installers to list all serial numbers at the time a contract is signed and if any of the numbers are wrong the penalty would be perjury. The insanity of this is you would have to have all the serial numbers before you even ordered the equipment.
In that same interview he mentioned that thinking about the competition keeps him up at night so other than the policy standpoint I question how "happy" this really makes him.
On another note, JHM your new picture keeps freaking me out hah ... Who is that!, I keep asking myself ha
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Thanks, it was that GTM podcast that I had in mind. I thought it was Vivint but was not sure.
So I wonder if Vivint's play all along was to amass a book of business big enough to force some competitor to buy them out. This would be like WhatsApp getting bought out by FaceBook, or any number of other tech plays. You don't have to have a long-term business model, you just need to make it in the interest of large players to take you out of the market. If this was Vivint's intent all along, it would make sense that they would not contribute much to policy advocacy that would weaken the standing of their prospective buyer.
Vivint had 13% market share in Q4 2014, but 11% in Q1 2015. So it looks like the couldn't stand the heat and needed to cut their deal.
hockeythug
Active Member
Local story about the main power utility intentionally not hooking up the states 6th largest solar project that was installed last year. 
http://www.startribune.com/giant-so...minn-produces-frustration-no-juice/317662731/
http://www.startribune.com/giant-so...minn-produces-frustration-no-juice/317662731/
jhm
Well-Known Member
Local story about the main power utility intentionally not hooking up the states 6th largest solar project that was installed last year.
http://www.startribune.com/giant-so...minn-produces-frustration-no-juice/317662731/
Somebody needs to be able to rent a bunch of Powerpacks until this is resolved, then keep a few longterm. This is the sort of service SolarCity could be providing its customers to mitigate the risk of utility stalling tactics.
jhm
Well-Known Member
SolarCity aims to create 1,460 jobs - Business - The Buffalo News
SolarCity start hiring this year to fill 1460 positions at the Riverbend plant.
SolarCity start hiring this year to fill 1460 positions at the Riverbend plant.
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SolarCity Now
Wow, Solarcity hit 7Gwh today. Another all time record. 4,5,6 and now 7 has been hit in 2015.
Wow, Solarcity hit 7Gwh today. Another all time record. 4,5,6 and now 7 has been hit in 2015.
It is only showing 6.3 when I look now? Can someone confirm its showing 7 for them still? Might be a cache issue with me?
I did notice that the last installation was in Phoenix interesting to know that there still installing solar there after the SRP decision I know right after the decision they relocated like 10 percent of the workforce and said more would be leaving but with no updates I was curious if they still have people working there.
I did notice that the last installation was in Phoenix interesting to know that there still installing solar there after the SRP decision I know right after the decision they relocated like 10 percent of the workforce and said more would be leaving but with no updates I was curious if they still have people working there.
From the link:
Solar panels owned by a home seller add 4 to 6 percent to the value of a home sale, often less than the cost of the panels, according to an analysis of local home sales and reports from real-estate agents. Houses with leased solar panels actually sold for less than those with no solar
"Once it has that new lease payment hooked to it, it actually makes the home value considerably less," said Shaw, echoing the sentiment of appraisers and other experts in Arizona real estate.
Zzzz...
Member
It is from a study of home sales by Arizona State University, and supported by appraisers and realtors. The fundamentals of the problem don't change by area. A potential buyer can read the unfavorable lease/PPA terms. Every competent real estate attorney is going to warn their home buyer client.
There is resistance to buying homes with attached solar leases everywhere. This article references what is probably the only university study so far.
jhm
Well-Known Member
How SolarCity can sell solar in Geoegia
Despite abundant sunshine, Georgia has little sunshine. Why has SolarCity not entered this market. Up until about 6 months ago, it was illegal for solar installers to lease, unless they happened to be a utility. But our state government has passed legislation to remove that barrier to entry. But SolarCity faces another barrier: power is cheep in Georgia. However, Tesla Energy products may change the economics and open a way for SolarCity to turn a profit in Georgia.
I have been helping a condo community sort through options for installing EV chargers. In the process, we have learned more about the commercial rate plan this HOA has. Roughly, this plan prices energy at 9c/kWh and monthly peak demand at $20/kW. SolarCity may not be able to compete with the energy price offering a solar system without storage. While a solar only system can reduce peak energy use when the sun shines brightly and AC hums, but the AC demand at and after sunset as well as monthly variability in solar output can lead to very little relief from demand charges. So without storage, while at 25 kW system could reduce demand in certain hours by 25 kW, the monthly peak demand might only amount to a few kW in hot months. But suppose we pair 25 kW PV with a Powerpack at 100 kWh and 25 kW sustained. The Powerpack along may not be sufficient to reduce peak demand by 25 kW, while it can certainly provide that much power for 4 hours at a time. So if peak loads are sustained longer than 4 hours at anytime in the month, a Powerpack alone cannot reliably cut peak demand by 25 kW , maybe 15 to 20 kW. But suppose the solar and battery can work together synergistically to reduce peak demand by a month average of 30 kW, where solar alone provides upto 5 kW and Powerpack alone upto 20 kW. The extra 5 kW or more demand reduction is the benefit of synergy, and at $20/kW.
So let's figure out what this is worth on an average monthly basis.
Solar energery. 25 kW × 120 h = 3000 kWh @ $0.09/kWh = $270
Solar peak demand reduction. 5 kW @ $20/kW = $100.
Powerpack alone peak demand reduction. 20 kW @ $20/kW = $400.
Synergistic peak demand reduction. 5 kW @ $20/kW = $100.
Thus a PV only system creates a benefit valued at $370 per month or 12.3 c/kWh. Over the course of 20 years this is worth $88,800 or $3.55/W.
However, the combined PV + Powerpack system generates a benefit worth $870 per month or 29 c/kWh. Over 20 years the is worth $208,800. Since the Powerpack will need to get replaced in 10 to 15 years, but in that time the cost could drop from $25,000 to $15,00, even $10,000. So let's assume over 20 years time s40,000 will be spent on storage. We net this from the gross benefit to get a net benefit of $168,800 or $6.75/W solar.
So we see the potential of storage to increase the benefit per Watt from $3.55 to $6.75, a gain of $3.20. Surely at a benefit of $6.75 there is plenty of opportunity for both customer and SolarCity to profit handsomely. Indeed, both could profit to the tune of $2/W or $50,000 each.
Not only does this example illustrate the potential for solar+battery to make economic sense. It also underscores how important the cost of grid capacity is. In most residential rate plans, there is just a rate for energy. This rate includes the cost of grid capacity. But in a plan with demand charges a specific price is put on grid capacity. PV only systems are not well suited to create reductions in required grid capacity and most rate plans do not properly reward owners of these systems for these modest reductions. But rate plans with demand charges do put a specific price on capacity demanded, and solar systems with storage are best suited to optimize rewards for reduced capacity requirements. We make a big mistake in thinking about renewable energy to focus only on energy costs and not recognize capacity costs. In this example, the combined cost that was offset was $870/month or 29 c/kWh, but the energy benefit was only $270/month or 9 c/kWh. So about 2/3 of the benefit was obtained by reducing capacity requirements.
Incidentally, Georgia Power does have two residential rate plans with demand charges built into them, but most residential customers choose other plans without demand charges. I'll leave it to the analysts to workout which combination of PV and battery will yield the best return for each specific utility rate plan, but where a specific price is put on capacity, batteries have an opportunity to capture that value.
Batteries may well expand SolarCity's addressable market, even into Georgia.
Despite abundant sunshine, Georgia has little sunshine. Why has SolarCity not entered this market. Up until about 6 months ago, it was illegal for solar installers to lease, unless they happened to be a utility. But our state government has passed legislation to remove that barrier to entry. But SolarCity faces another barrier: power is cheep in Georgia. However, Tesla Energy products may change the economics and open a way for SolarCity to turn a profit in Georgia.
I have been helping a condo community sort through options for installing EV chargers. In the process, we have learned more about the commercial rate plan this HOA has. Roughly, this plan prices energy at 9c/kWh and monthly peak demand at $20/kW. SolarCity may not be able to compete with the energy price offering a solar system without storage. While a solar only system can reduce peak energy use when the sun shines brightly and AC hums, but the AC demand at and after sunset as well as monthly variability in solar output can lead to very little relief from demand charges. So without storage, while at 25 kW system could reduce demand in certain hours by 25 kW, the monthly peak demand might only amount to a few kW in hot months. But suppose we pair 25 kW PV with a Powerpack at 100 kWh and 25 kW sustained. The Powerpack along may not be sufficient to reduce peak demand by 25 kW, while it can certainly provide that much power for 4 hours at a time. So if peak loads are sustained longer than 4 hours at anytime in the month, a Powerpack alone cannot reliably cut peak demand by 25 kW , maybe 15 to 20 kW. But suppose the solar and battery can work together synergistically to reduce peak demand by a month average of 30 kW, where solar alone provides upto 5 kW and Powerpack alone upto 20 kW. The extra 5 kW or more demand reduction is the benefit of synergy, and at $20/kW.
So let's figure out what this is worth on an average monthly basis.
Solar energery. 25 kW × 120 h = 3000 kWh @ $0.09/kWh = $270
Solar peak demand reduction. 5 kW @ $20/kW = $100.
Powerpack alone peak demand reduction. 20 kW @ $20/kW = $400.
Synergistic peak demand reduction. 5 kW @ $20/kW = $100.
Thus a PV only system creates a benefit valued at $370 per month or 12.3 c/kWh. Over the course of 20 years this is worth $88,800 or $3.55/W.
However, the combined PV + Powerpack system generates a benefit worth $870 per month or 29 c/kWh. Over 20 years the is worth $208,800. Since the Powerpack will need to get replaced in 10 to 15 years, but in that time the cost could drop from $25,000 to $15,00, even $10,000. So let's assume over 20 years time s40,000 will be spent on storage. We net this from the gross benefit to get a net benefit of $168,800 or $6.75/W solar.
So we see the potential of storage to increase the benefit per Watt from $3.55 to $6.75, a gain of $3.20. Surely at a benefit of $6.75 there is plenty of opportunity for both customer and SolarCity to profit handsomely. Indeed, both could profit to the tune of $2/W or $50,000 each.
Not only does this example illustrate the potential for solar+battery to make economic sense. It also underscores how important the cost of grid capacity is. In most residential rate plans, there is just a rate for energy. This rate includes the cost of grid capacity. But in a plan with demand charges a specific price is put on grid capacity. PV only systems are not well suited to create reductions in required grid capacity and most rate plans do not properly reward owners of these systems for these modest reductions. But rate plans with demand charges do put a specific price on capacity demanded, and solar systems with storage are best suited to optimize rewards for reduced capacity requirements. We make a big mistake in thinking about renewable energy to focus only on energy costs and not recognize capacity costs. In this example, the combined cost that was offset was $870/month or 29 c/kWh, but the energy benefit was only $270/month or 9 c/kWh. So about 2/3 of the benefit was obtained by reducing capacity requirements.
Incidentally, Georgia Power does have two residential rate plans with demand charges built into them, but most residential customers choose other plans without demand charges. I'll leave it to the analysts to workout which combination of PV and battery will yield the best return for each specific utility rate plan, but where a specific price is put on capacity, batteries have an opportunity to capture that value.
Batteries may well expand SolarCity's addressable market, even into Georgia.
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