-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
This is ridiculous! Elon even says to reason from first principles, whereas you are reasoning by analogy. If you are going to invest based on a specific measure, learn and understand it, and test the information with your own model. If not that's fine, but don't flout something you don't understand on a public forum.
And don't you dare call me a "hater". I have a SCTY holding, just prefer informed discussion.
Come out with a model for retained value and educate us all. You must have not read my entire post. Until someone comes out with a better one I'm sticking with the companies model, which I completely understand and agree with.
I think they have been conservative with their numbers and I believe they will easily hit 1 million customers by EOY 2018. A forecast of 70% compound growth should not be a problem in this market that has barely been penetrated and I'm sure they will expand into more states by 2018 as well.
I think they have been conservative with their numbers and I believe they will easily hit 1 million customers by EOY 2018. A forecast of 70% compound growth should not be a problem in this market that has barely been penetrated and I'm sure they will expand into more states by 2018 as well.
I don't understand the ambiguity in your statement. If you completely understand the companies model than why would all of us need to be educated? Further, can't you do the same task which you suggested I do, which I admittedly don't have the education to do? Add value to this discussion, not propaganda.
I agree with their model so I'm not about to try to improve it. There are a ton of people who disagree with the retained value model but I think I've only seen one revised model of what they felt was better and it didn't have many numbers supporting it. It's amazing how people feel retained value is smoke and mirrors yet they don't have a model of their own to share.
Ok, so can you make an annotated copy of the retained value calculations they use to help educate people on the topic. That would be very informative for everyone on the board. Your word can't be trusted with no numbers backing it up.
Edit:I should also say you shouldn't trust my word, or anyones word for the matter, if they don't have evidence.
Last edited:
NigelM
Recovering Member
I am not here to recreate SCTY's retained value model. I was asking for someone else who thought they had a better one to show it to everyone. I agree with the way SCTY is calculating their retained value as well as the cost of capital figures they use. Until we are farther into the future no one knows exactly what will happen 20 years from now. All I see is people doubting SCTY's model yet they produce no new model of their own. I've seen one contributor on yahoo who thought they were designing a new model but it had a lot of very negative assumptions about energy prices actually falling, not rising, which is nuts. They were also great disbelievers in the leasing model which we've pretty much summed up that some will buy and some will lease so the leasing model will likely never die. It may be modified to make it more competitive but as prices fall for panels the logical assumption is the leasing price will fall as well.
I already own a lot of SCTY so I'm not too concerned if people short it or not. As the company keeps coming in at/above their targets, the stock will rise and shorts will cover. Selling short a rising stock just briefly slows down the momentum. Earnings and growth of this company will not be changed by the stock price unless they plan to do a lot of secondary offering, which doesn't seem likely with ABS being so robust at the moment. The bonds are as good as mortgages so I don't see ABS drying up.
I already own a lot of SCTY so I'm not too concerned if people short it or not. As the company keeps coming in at/above their targets, the stock will rise and shorts will cover. Selling short a rising stock just briefly slows down the momentum. Earnings and growth of this company will not be changed by the stock price unless they plan to do a lot of secondary offering, which doesn't seem likely with ABS being so robust at the moment. The bonds are as good as mortgages so I don't see ABS drying up.
Without commenting on the rest of this topic, I will interject here that there are reasonable scenarios where electricity prices fall, at least in some areas of the country. There is a credible case that we are less than ten years out from some major technological breakthroughs in generation, power storage, and systems controls that collectively will drop the market price of electricity. Remember that wholesale energy prices are set by the operating cost of the marginal generator. Renewable generators have a zero or near-zero operating cost, so as more renewable power goes onto the system, the price of wholesale power falls. The capital cost of renewable generation shows up in retail prices through a different charge (a "capacity charge" or similar), but that may or may not be a value that SCTY can capture (depending on regulatory decisions about whether such capacity charges can be bypassed).
In any case, while I wouldn't use a falling electricity price as my base case, it is a relevant scenario for stress-testing SCTY's value.
New to this thread. Is there any news on the SCTY debt program they announced this past winter? I think they were going to allow normal investors to purchase it's debt. Here's a link to the story from January - http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/15/investing/solarcity-debt/index.html?iid=HP_LN
Both TSLA and SCTY report at 4pm so there is no news. I wish there was news cause I hate seeing SCTY down 12% while TSLA is only down 3% and neither company has any news out today. The good news is SCTY filled a gap on the chart for 11/29/2013 at ~$49. The August high of $45.60 was hit too as support. I wish I was one of the fortunate souls who shorted the stock above $70 but I'd surely be covering right about now.
Edit: TAN is only down 4% so SCTY being down 12% must be ER nervousness.
Edit: TAN is only down 4% so SCTY being down 12% must be ER nervousness.
- Status
Similar threads
