SolarEdge does not see big jump in residential batteries

[quartzav]

Individual owners is the slow slog. I'd swing a deal with Lennar or pulte. And also pursue large condo developments. And large real estate retailers. Etc.

I hope so, mentioned to Lennar's regional personnel and their reply is that no consumer demand.

 

[tomas]

I hope so, mentioned to Lennar's regional personnel and their reply is that no consumer demand.

Right but same was true of electric cars pre tesla.

Lennar thinks it's a capital cost that adds to price of unit, and will only do if people demand and will pay premium. No imagination going on there. That's why there has to be a deal where tesla/solar city makes it cost neutral so that it becomes a differentiating feature. Then the competing builders will have to have it.

Can you imagine a deal where for 25k your house comes with a 3 year Model 3 lease, 3kw solar system including power wall? After 3 years you have buyout option on car. There's also graduated buyout on solar system or you can just have free and clear in 10 years.

Or $5k option on Model 3 to put in 3 kW system. Same buyout deal.

Somebody's got to think like that or residential solar remains a 1 by 1 custom market.

I started a business 4 years ago to market solar kit to Tesla buyers. $10k pre incentives for system that would power your car 10k miles per year. Had to stop because of installer issues, but guess what % of owners with houses who heard the pitch bought? >66%.

The Tesla buyer market, now over half a million strong with M3, is ripe for this offering. If deal structured right, could also be at least 20% penetration on new home buyers.

 

[quartzav]

Right but same was true of electric cars pre tesla.

Lennar thinks it's a capital cost that adds to price of unit, and will only do if people demand and will pay premium. No imagination going on there. That's why there has to be a deal where tesla/solar city makes it cost neutral so that it becomes a differentiating feature. Then the competing builders will have to have it.

Can you imagine a deal where for 25k your house comes with a 3 year Model 3 lease, 3kw solar system including power wall? After 3 years you have buyout option on car. There's also graduated buyout on solar system or you can just have free and clear in 10 years.

Or $5k option on Model 3 to put in 3 kW system. Same buyout deal.

Somebody's got to think like that or residential solar remains a 1 by 1 custom market.

I started a business 4 years ago to market solar kit to Tesla buyers. $10k pre incentives for system that would power your car 10k miles per year. Had to stop because of installer issues, but guess what % of owners with houses who heard the pitch bought? >66%.

The Tesla buyer market, now over half a million strong with M3, is ripe for this offering. If deal structured right, could also be at least 20% penetration on new home buyers.

May I ask what kind of installer problem, if you don't mind. From a customer perspective what I see in Nevada is the changes implemented to net-metering has killed residential solar installation. Please note its both on solar system purchasing and leasing. This is not just Solarcity/Sunrun tantrum as one of the posters on GreencarReport suggested. This made me believe that it would poses as a major road block to the builder take-up model.

The following is the (edited to take out identifying info) letter from the largest installer when residential and commercial solar systems is combine in Nevada to their customers.
Dear Mr./Mrs. Customer,


We are writing to inform you what the latest NV Energy solar rates mean to you as a solar customer and to us as a company. Please understand that the renewable energy market and industry has constantly been changing as we all learn how to integrate these new technologies with the existing fossil fuel utility infrastructure. This debate is a national debate with individual utilities taking different approaches state by state. NV Energy proposed rate plan does cripple today’s solar electric market in the state of Nevada and it does impact the existing solar customer. However, the debate is not only about the impact to existing solar customers.


For existing solar customers: Currently as proposed and granted by the PUCN, existing solar customers will be subject to net metering changes and basic monthly charge increases which will be phased in over the next 5 years. These new rates can be viewed at Net Metering. The monthly basic charge for solar customers will triple over the first 5 years and the rate customers will get receive for excess generation will go from 9 to 11 cents per kWh to 2.5 cents per kWh.


However, there has never been a public utility commission that has allowed a negative impact to existing solar customer before this. Our company expects that the grandfathering concept will be revisited and debated several times until a final decision is made. It’s still not too late to contact your local representative which can be found at Who's My Legislator / What's My District and let them know how this impacts you personally.


For our solar installation company: Due to the new changes in the NV Energy rate structure we will not be selling any more residential solar systems until we have a reasonable solution for our customers. Unfortunately, this means that we will lose our existing employees who have been very valuable members of our solar family. The quality and craftsmanship has always been world class, and our solar installation company really appreciates all their time and effort helping us convert our world over to a cleaner planet. our solar installation company will still honor all of our workmanship warranties and assist with any service calls. our solar installation company customers still have major equipment warranties, for example the inverter(s) and solar panels, which exist for 10 to 25 years through the manufacture. If you have any warranty items or issues please call us at ***-***-****.


Additional Items and Details: We have been asked about battery backed-up systems. Unfortunately, NV Energy already has policy in place that will make installing a battery system challenging. In essence, NV Energy has a mandate that you must receive 100% of your power from them, not from another form of production (i.e. battery/solar combo). We do not feel comfortable installing these systems because we believe that NV Energy may one day impose extra fees that would negate any advantages earned. Despite all the talk about the Tesla Powerwall, we don't believe that the technology is ready for the application that everyone desires.


The renewable energy revolution is here to stay. Simply put it’s the right thing to do and your decision to go solar is very important to this world and our solar installation company really appreciates the decision you made. The PUCN decision was quite disappointing and we all have a lot of work to influence policy so that it works for everyone. Please don’t give up the faith and please help us continue fighting to do what is right for us as individuals and for this planet.


Thank you,

 

[tomas]

My installer problems were much more basic. My installer decided to move and sold his business to someone else. After a year of working with him, I was not ready to start over. Plus, when I first started, local tesla was willing to share leads. 1 year later, it needed to go to corporate, and I know where that would have gone.

Yes, phaseout of net metering will kill current solar market. That is why powerwall is so important. It eliminates need for net metering. Tesla will have a huge advantage if they can create the right economic deal.

 

[bonaire]

It will grow REAL fast as soon as the plug is pulled on net metering.

I don't entirely agree. The reason is to retrofit an existing net-metered Solar PV system with a battery requires more than just a powerwall wired to it. And A Solar PV system alone keeps grid-demand lower by itself. In say California, where you would be in a Tier-3 or Tier-4 rate level, a solar PV running without batteries keeps usage down in the lower range. What I can see are EV owners looking to just charge elsewhere, such as workplaces, shopping malls or at more Superchargers for Tesla owners. A full SC recharge keeps 70-90 kWh off your electric bill. Do that 10-20 times a year is cheaper than the work needed to retrofit a powerwall which arbitrages just a little cost per day. Someone will have to do the math before adding a battery (or few). It is also more economical to order two powerwalls rather than one on a value-basis.

 

[SDRick]

I do not agree. Net metering is the key.

I have solar panels with net metering. In three years my electric bill has been zero. So for me, it does not make economical sense to purchase even one more LED light bulb or spend any money to make my house more efficient. My bill is already at zero. So for now any additional investment goes to waste. Particularly so with a expensive battery system.

Would it be nice to have a power wall for backup? Of course. But that is a whole other argument and risk / reward discussion.

 

[bonaire]

If they remove net-metering and people buy batteries, there is net-losses to figure into the mix. So, instead of net-metering 6.4 kWh per day onto the grid, the wall owner may pull 7.5 kWh from the solar in the morning to charge it or overnight and dump 6.4kWh in the afternoon to run their AC and cooking. Net effect is that solar pv owners will be supplying less power to the grid using a battery than if they stay on with net-metering and participate in the occasional strong demand (hot summer days). Removal of net-metering will lead to removal of solar PV benefits to the grid (if everyone added batteries).

Net metering will eventually turn into gross-metering. Being paid just your generation charge and not transmission and distribution costs. If net metering is say .15/kWh, it may drop to .06/kWh in a gross-metering scenario. I doubt it goes right to 0.00 off the bat. Maybe 2021 and outyears, gross-metering gets legislated away but for now, I don't see net-metering itself going away.

The real issue in California is to get the canyon's leak fixed. That is a multi-GW 24x7 baseload issue. Not easily solved with thousands of battery installations. And grid-scale solar + powerpack battery is also economically smart for CA to do rather than retrofit solar homes with one PW each. However, CA is not always known for doing things 'economically smart'

 

[SDRick]

Once net metering goes away, the incentive for solar panels plus battery (power wall) is far greater and much more attractive. This could allow homeowners to get away from the power companies and get off the grid completely! The question then becomes at what cost vs what the power companies are offering.

With net metering in place, it makes no economical sense to add batteries to a solar system.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Incidentally, CA has put out a bunch of RFPs to get utility scale batteries in place by the end of this year in response to the Aliso Canyon leak. Guess whose battery system is NOT winning the bids? Yep, Tesla is nowhere to be seen in the winning bids.

I am really wondering if Tesla can execute in a competitive environment like battery storage...

Article which contains links to RFP responses, etc.

California Utilities Are Fast-Tracking Battery Projects to Manage Aliso Canyon Shortfall

 

[Out4aDuck]

PV systems are likely to survive a hurricane?

 

[bonaire]

Once net metering goes away, the incentive for solar panels plus battery (power wall) is far greater and much more attractive. This could allow homeowners to get away from the power companies and get off the grid completely! The question then becomes at what cost vs what the power companies are offering.

With net metering in place, it makes no economical sense to add batteries to a solar system.

Your "bolded" is a strong conclusion. With Solar PV alone, you lower your demand. In CA, that can be backing down from Tier-4 to Tier-2. Many have pools and pumps/heaters use a lot of power - so anyone with a pool should look to the sky for benefits to heat and run the pumps. But I do not believe that people want to get off the grid. The grid is the largest, most complex and stable machine ever built. It produces electricity at affordable rates (in many places outside of CA which is a complex synthetic experiment of living in a natural desert but supporting too many people for the natural carrying capacity - oh, it is nice weather though).

What is hard to determine is once many more tens of thousands of EVs are on the road, what does that do to the base-load plant profile of grid energy production? Most will charge at night at home on the low TOU tiers so driving will be far cheaper. But do people really need to go "off grid"? or is that a mind-seed being planted by those who sell the equipment? And it is because in some locations (like CA) - it is because the government allows so many people to live in an area where they cannot truly produce the proper level of grid power to support the population (along with new laws that shutdown good power plants). The loss of the canyon's NG supply indicates that California is running a risky race of population versus infrastructure that no other state that I'm aware of has a problem with. Import of power from Arizona, Nevada and NM is done on a basis of need. With the Hoover Dam becoming nearly dry, there is one large resource that will hurt the region as well.

Have you CA guys consider moving to Texas or other warm climates? Less taxes, cheaper power too due to it being its own grid (the USA has 3 main grids; east, west, texas).

 

[ecarfan]

Today my new 9.8kW PV/Powerwall system is turned on for the first time. My economic goal is to reduce my annual utility bill to the minimum $10/month connection fee we have to pay in California. I have no problem paying that. I do not want to go off the grid. My electrical power consumption is relatively modest by local standards and my new system should easily be able to accomplish that goal.

However, my primary goal is the same at Tesla's: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport and sustainable energy. It's not about saving money now, or even 15 years from now (though I will accomplish that). I've been thinking about putting solar panels on my roof ever since I bought my house in 2000. But it was seeing the success of Tesla Motors, and the start up of Tesla Energy, that really motivated me to invest in solar PV and a Powerwall.

Whether I personally have net metering or not doesn't really matter to me. I recognize I am likely in the minority in that regard. We need an economic forcing function to drive the adoption of residential and commercial solar, and net metering is one such function.

 

[tomas]

people think goofy. We eschew solar because of 10+ year payback, yet what else can you do to your house that has potential to have a return over its lifetime? I put a 5kw system on my flat roof... For less than it would cost to replace the membrane. No return on membrane, just a deteriorating asset.

 

[Vitold]

Once net metering goes away, the incentive for solar panels plus battery (power wall) is far greater and much more attractive. This could allow homeowners to get away from the power companies and get off the grid completely! The question then becomes at what cost vs what the power companies are offering.

With net metering in place, it makes no economical sense to add batteries to a solar system.

Not true. With net metering batteries will provide distributed storage for utility and battery backup for owner.

 

[SDRick]

Vitold,

What do you mean, "not true"?

At least for me with net metering, it makes no economical sense to add batteries to my solar system. My bill is already ZERO. Do the math.

 

[bonaire]

Today my new 9.8kW PV/Powerwall system is turned on for the first time. My economic goal is to reduce my annual utility bill to the minimum $10/month connection fee we have to pay in California. I have no problem paying that. I do not want to go off the grid. My electrical power consumption is relatively modest by local standards and my new system should easily be able to accomplish that goal.

However, my primary goal is the same at Tesla's: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport and sustainable energy. It's not about saving money now, or even 15 years from now (though I will accomplish that). I've been thinking about putting solar panels on my roof ever since I bought my house in 2000. But it was seeing the success of Tesla Motors, and the start up of Tesla Energy, that really motivated me to invest in solar PV and a Powerwall.

Whether I personally have net metering or not doesn't really matter to me. I recognize I am likely in the minority in that regard. We need an economic forcing function to drive the adoption of residential and commercial solar, and net metering is one such function.

I commend you and I will say I am somewhat like you. I have a 8KW solar PV array, drive an EV but do not have batteries. After three and a half years, I have generated 43 MWh of power from Solar PV. No TOU rates. I have seen $9 monthly bills often. My 43 MWh are worth about $1290 to the local grid because their typical MWh price from generators is about $30 or less except for peak-load demand when the hourly auctions ramp up to the $100+ range for a few hours a day. I am helping keep base-load peak demand down "a tiny bit". If thousands of us did it, it would help "a bit more."

We are both hobbyists. We are willing to pay up for the experience. For me, my neighbors all do not participate. I think one has a prius. Some complain about $300/month power bills - and do nothing about it. They have other costs of living to worry about too.

My alma-mater college installed a 2MW solar array. It will offset 3% of the college's elecricity demand. Things like this help - but only help "a little". I am expecting the power companies to eventually legislate away net-metering. In place, they might increase the SREC value so that our payback is possibly more based on production and just not in deferring purchasing their kWh. I am going to look into Iron Edison batteries next month at the Battery Expo in Novi, Michigan. Might consider adding a few standby circuits with those.

 

[bonaire]

Not true. With net metering batteries will provide distributed storage for utility and battery backup for owner.

Perfect scenario for this is India and the Caribbean - in both locations, power outages occur daily through rolling blackouts. However, they do need to add Solar too to recharge the batteries for the times they are called into usage during the daily blackouts. many wealthy Indian homes have battery sets for standby.

 

[AB4EJ]

In areas with net metering, there is no need for batteries.

This depends very much on the power company's policies. Where I live (AL), the breakeven period on a grid-tied system is over 25 years (more than the lifetime of the equipment) due to the huge "reserve capacity" fees charged by the power company. With a battery, you can use a different rate schedule that is tied to peak period demand (long story to explain this) and eliminate the fee. I am thinking about adding a Powerwall as soon as the retrofit kit is available for my Solar Edge Inverter. (On the other hand, this may be simply throwing good money after bad, so I don't know...)

 

[Vitold]

Vitold,

What do you mean, "not true"?

At least for me with net metering, it makes no economical sense to add batteries to my solar system. My bill is already ZERO. Do the math.

Tesla Solar will make system that Utility can use for distributed storage (and pay you, or Tesla for the service) which will offset in part expense of Powerwall. Battery backup benefit is self-explanatory I think...

 

[SDRick]

Perfect scenario for this is India and the Caribbean - in both locations, power outages occur daily through rolling blackouts. However, they do need to add Solar too to recharge the batteries for the times they are called into usage during the daily blackouts. many wealthy Indian homes have battery sets for standby.

Hopefully Tesla is not relying on these countries for their economic success of their power wall.