SolarEdge does not see big jump in residential batteries

[Cosmacelf]

From yesterdays's Solaredge quarterly earnings conference call:

So, currently where everything that Tesla ship, they ship with our inverters. And every inverter we ship with Tesla battery. Our integration with LG is not yet finished. So currently all the market if you want to buy it today and you use the parallel as far as I know, the only inverter you can buy today is SolarEdge.

As many other new products, what we saw in the beginning was a reasonable volume, now we – you and myself
we had this discussion in the past and I told you that I believe that the ramp up of this product will be much slower
than expected by Tesla. I may think that everybody see today that there is a big gap between the 70,000 demand
that Tesla comment in the past to the actual inflation, this type of technology is a real shift. And under current
prices, the growth will be not as fast as some people believe.

----

They went to say that they are seeing a couple of thousand battery systems a quarter but don't see that expanding very quickly.

 

[Skotty]

It will grow REAL fast as soon as the plug is pulled on net metering.

 

[ecarfan]

They went to say that they are seeing a couple of thousand battery systems a quarter but don't see that expanding very quickly.

We shall see if their assessment is correct.

Yesterday my SolarEdge inverter was installed in my garage. Today the solar panels are being installed on my roof. This Friday my Powerwall is scheduled to be installed.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It will grow REAL fast as soon as the plug is pulled on net metering.

And if that happens, watch the plunge in solar installations...

 

[kort677]

FYI:
Elon Musk’s plan for Tesla and SolarCity involves creating market where none exists

 

[SDRick]

In areas with net metering, there is no need for batteries.

 

[TexasEV]

In areas with net metering, there is no need for batteries.

The utility is functionally the "battery", taking excess power from the solar panels and providing power when the solar panels aren't generating enough.

 

[nwdiver]

In areas with net metering, there is no need for batteries.

I disagree... people often spend thousands for an integrated backup generator. Those people would also likely be willing to spend a few thousand to add backup to their PV system.

Here's a whole line of people wishing they had solar panels AND batteries...

I was without electricity for 3 weeks after Hurricane Hugo. That was >20 years ago but it's still seared in my mind and I'll gladly spend ~$5k to prevent it from happening again... not to mention the nuisance outages we get every year.

I expect ~75% of the systems I install will include at least ~7kWh in 2 years for that reason. What's $4k on a $20k system?

 

[SD_Engnr]

We shall see if their assessment is correct.

Yesterday my SolarEdge inverter was installed in my garage. Today the solar panels are being installed on my roof. This Friday my Powerwall is scheduled to be installed.

Would you mind sharing your project size and overall cost? Very curious. Thank you!

 

[tomas]

Tesla will make their own inverter if merger goes through. Then it comes down to price and financing. If tesla offers well bundled panel/inverter/battery configs at good terms, they can make a market. Particularly in states with REC's, where they can get tax credits and retain the REC's for duration of lease, and use that to greatly reduce lease price. Solar city knows that stuff inside out. What solaredge sees is their non-exclusive alliance not growing much. Probably true.

Yes, market might not respond. But, I think it has a good chance.

 

[ecarfan]

Would you mind sharing your project size and overall cost? Very curious. Thank you!

I will when it is completed this week, I hope. Will start a new thread in this subforum, with photos.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It will be interesting to see how long it takes for a Tesla Inverter to be manufactured. Since presumably they will be selling these exclusively via their own sales/support channel, they won't have to pay dealer/distributor markups, but will be on the hook for replacements should the initial build quality be sub-par (cough, cough). No one will know how good/costly/cheap/reliable it is compared to the industry since all that info will be buried. But I'm sure we will be told it will be the best.

 

[Waiting4M3]

In areas with net metering, there is no need for batteries.

Not exactly, my coworker has net metering, but the down side is if there is an power outage, since his solar panel is tied into the grid via net metering, the solar panel is also cut off, and he can't even run his house with just his solar panel. He is waiting to use the Powerwall to get away from that dependency.

 

[SDRick]

I disagree... people often spend thousands for an integrated backup generator. Those people would also likely be willing to spend a few thousand to add backup to their PV system.

Here's a whole line of people wishing they had solar panels AND batteries...

I was without electricity for 3 weeks after Hurricane Hugo. That was >20 years ago but it's still seared in my mind and I'll gladly spend ~$5k to prevent it from happening again... not to mention the nuisance outages we get every year.

I expect ~75% of the systems I install will include at least ~7kWh in 2 years for that reason. What's $4k on a $20k system?

There is no doubt that everyone would like to have solar panels and enough batteries to get off the grid. If you put a pencil to it, especially if net metering is available the risk / reward is quite expensive.

At least in Southern California, the grid is fairly reliable. In 21 years at my current residence, the total power outage perhaps totaled 12 hours. At current prices, the cost of 50kwh of batteries would've been equivalent to what, at least $1,000 to $2000 per hour of backup power? I love electricity, but I'd rather be paid $2000 for every hour I had to go dark.

In that time frame, one would be on their second or third set of batteries. I purchased a tri-fuel 10,000 W generator for about $1000 just in case.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to be totally off the grid and be able to charge my Tesla. I thought seriously about a integrated natural gas or battery backup system but it just did not pencil for me. Not even close.

 

[nwdiver]

Don't get me wrong, I would love to be totally off the grid and be able to charge my Tesla. I thought seriously about a integrated natural gas or battery backup system but it just did not pencil for me. Not even close.

I'm not suggesting batteries to be off-grid... but to have some degree of independence as an insurance policy. If I'm talking to someone about buying a 8kW system for ~$24k what's another 20% as an insurance policy? What happens if there's an earthquake? Or an EMP? Or some form of cyber terrorism that strikes the grid? There's dozens of possibilities. There's A LOT of people on the East Coast with vivid memories of being without power for weeks like I was after Hurricane Hugo. A generator is nice... until you have to go hunting for fuel.

I think that for most people ~$4k is a small price to pay for peace of mind that losing the grid for a few weeks won't plunge them back to the stone age. You don't need 50kWh for that... if there's an emergency it's not going to be business as usual and you'll have to ration power at night but you'll be able to keep the fridge running... have some lights and run the AC during the day. My emergency battery is 15kWh of golf cart batteries... it's not enough to be off-grid but I can keep the lights on and keep the house <80F vs >90F.

 

[SDRick]

I think you are correct in that one needs to look at the batteries as insurance.

Everyone's situation is different. In San Diego you can get by without heat or air conditioning. My solar inverter can provide 2000 W (per inverter) while the sun is up and the grid is down. Could I improve my situation, sure, but at what cost? Just the the electrician's charge and transfer switch would be $2000 plus new batteries every so often.

In 60 years I cannot remember being unable to find some natural gas, gasoline or propane. Do I like the concept of the power wall and backup electricity, sure. Question is how much would I pay for it. As often the case with insurance, if you can afford the loss, you don't necessarily need the insurance.

 

[nwdiver]

I
In 60 years I cannot remember being unable to find some natural gas, gasoline or propane.

San Diego has been pretty lucky in terms of natural disasters in the last 60 years... I think the Northridge Earthquake is probably the closest that that qualifies and that effected LA more than SD. Gasoline and Propane would start to run short after only a few days without additional supplies. Natural gas would obviously get cutoff by an earthquake... not sure how long the compressor station would last without the grid.

Insurance is more a reflection of what could happen not what has happened. One thing that motivated me to drop ~$4k on an off-grid inverter and a set of golf cart batteries was the potential for a CME like what hit quebec in 1989. Being without power for a few hours is an inconvenience. A few days is a hardship... weeks or months would be a nightmare.

The scary thing about Geomagnetic storms is the potential to destroy large backbone transformers.... those aren't easy to replace... it could take months to restore power to some places. Cyber Terrorism poses a similar threat.

 

[SDRick]

I hope for Tesla, lots of folks will see the benefit and purchase the Power Walls. I find many around here don't even do solar even with the compelling economics.

 

[nwdiver]

I find many around here don't even do solar even with the compelling economics.

That's one reason I'm excited about 'cost effective' battery backed systems. Even Solar edge system are ~30% more than traditional string inverters... that hardware required to integrate storage increases that further. Fronius should have an integrated string inverter next year that will be a bit cheaper than Solaredge.

Even with the steep drop in materials cost the payback is still ~10 years. I'm hoping the idea of backup power can help swing a few people sitting on the fence.

 

[tomas]

Individual owners is the slow slog. I'd swing a deal with Lennar or pulte. And also pursue large condo developments. And large real estate retailers. Etc.