Genuine question, how is Mars colonization profitable beyond tourist packages? Maybe, if there are high dollar value raw materials, but Elon has expressed doubt on that being net positive. Bespoke low mass finished goods maybe.
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Fair question, one that I have pondered without hard answers.
What is access to another planet worth? To some nothing. To others priceless.
Sounds like a slam dunk priceless deal to me. Want to go to another planet for any reason? Talk to SpaceX.
In terms of cash flow.... I cannot say.
Thanks. It feels sort of like Bitcoin to me, it has a (replacement) cost, but what is the value proposition?
With 1,000 ships at 100 tons that's 100,000 tons. At $100k a ton (recent goal Tim Dodd inverview), that's $10 Billion in cost, every 2ish years, so $5 billion a year. Given the point from Elon's side is human expansion, I don't see applying a lot of markup. Even at 100% markup it's $10 billion in revenue, need a 200x multiplier on earnings to get a trillion valuation.
Even a million tons to Mars is still 'only' $100 billion in launch costs. 10 million tons is one trillion cost and likely self sufficiency, but that is 5,000 ships/ yr over 43 years.
On the Starship side: Earth point to point could be a lot more lucrative. Plus orbital clean up, zero G whatever (tourism, research, manufacturing), Moon, ...
And, of course, Starlink is probably a cash machine.
But making mass to Mars affordable also means making mass to Mars low revenue. Making Mars self sustaining also cuts potential profits/ future required demand.
I don’t understand how individual employees “sell shares via a private placement”. What does that mean?
How does one purchase such shares?
I see the near term revenue value of SpaceX as coming from Starlink. Maybe in 4-5 years Starship launches (not the ones to Mars) will be generating significant revenue. I don’t see Mars transport as generating revenue in my lifetime.
This is an offering by the company, but instead of selling new stock to raise cash (although there may be some of that) this is more about the employees being allowed to sell their stock, which ordinarily as a private company they cannot.
You would purchase from one of the brokers being allowed to handle this, such as Forge.
Same as always with these private placements. Aggregators put together LLC companies that buy blocks of stock. So say 10 aggregators bought the stock in one big transaction from the sellers. Now the 10 aggregators sell units in the LLCs, each unit being backed by shares of SpaceX. Each aggregator gets a cut on the way in, the way out, and sometimes an on-going management fee.
One of the reasons why I gave up chasing to buy SpaceX stock is that you are trusting that the LLC doesn't go bankrupt. Or will actually file the regulatory and tax paperwork properly. Or will allow you to sell your shares on some timely basis. Or won't screw you in some other way (read the fine print very carefully). Anyways, not worth the risk/aggravation. There's a reason why the stock market is what it is.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I've landed in the same POV regarding becoming a partial owner of SpaceX. I'll wait for a public listing (which won't happen) or maybe Starlink.
Tesla is plenty good for me as it is
FYI
www.cnbc.com
Elon Musk says an IPO of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet business is still 3 or 4 years away
Elon Musk has told SpaceX employees the company isn't likely to take its Starlink satellite internet business public until 2025 or later, CNBC has learned.
www.cnbc.com
Not really a surprise, but nice to have a semi-official timeframe.FYI
Elon Musk says an IPO of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet business is still 3 or 4 years away
Elon Musk has told SpaceX employees the company isn't likely to take its Starlink satellite internet business public until 2025 or later, CNBC has learned.
I’m in. Looking forward to that investment opportunity.FYI
Elon Musk says an IPO of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet business is still 3 or 4 years away
Elon Musk has told SpaceX employees the company isn't likely to take its Starlink satellite internet business public until 2025 or later, CNBC has learned.
I managed to get in on that round of financing in the sale of shares via private placement in May
zmarty
Member
I was able to invest in SpaceX fairly recently.
Not allowed to give exact valuations based upon the agreement but it was lower than forge’s and spaceangels. The 10 to 1 split was already applied so that was nice.
Their minimum was 25k, I put in 250k.
Fee structure was a plus too, no upfront or yearly management/maintenance fees. Just a 20% carried interest fee applied on profit only after the go public. It’s applied only one time after you transfer the shares to your personal brokerage account.
Not allowed to give exact valuations based upon the agreement but it was lower than forge’s and spaceangels. The 10 to 1 split was already applied so that was nice.
Their minimum was 25k, I put in 250k.
Fee structure was a plus too, no upfront or yearly management/maintenance fees. Just a 20% carried interest fee applied on profit only after the go public. It’s applied only one time after you transfer the shares to your personal brokerage account.
Yeah I did a lot of research and back and forth with a few places but felt most comfortable with the terms with them.
To tell you the truth I’m thinking of liquidating a little more of my portfolio and dumping more in to SpaceX on this block haha.
Also if anyone was curious if Starlink goes public first what happens if you own SpaceX stock. Here’s how it was explained: If Starlink goes public first I would receive X amount in pro-rated Starlink shares and the rest would remain in SpaceX.
I'm guessing Starlink backhaul to provide higher density coverage via cellular relay.
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