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I think it is the general stock market tanking. I agree, a likely proprietary valuation since no financing rounds have occurred lately for SpaceX meaning there isn’t a good external price so the accountants have to guesstimate and they probably use a fixed yardstick for all their private companies (Ie, all private companies in their portfolio that haven’t had a financing round for the same time that SpaceX hasn’t, have all probably been cut by 10%).
pgs 45-50 BPTRX
pgs 58-65 BFGFX
| Tesla Inc. – | |
| Baron Partners Fund | 45.50% |
| Baron Focused Growth Fund | 22.30% |
| Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund | 5.40% |
| Baron Opportunity Fund | 5.10% |
| BaronTechnology Fund | 3.40% |
| Baron Global Advantage Fund | 3.30% |
| Space Exploration Technologies Corp. – | |
| Baron Focused Growth Fund | 9.70% |
| Baron Partners Fund | 6.80% |
| Baron Opportunity Fund | 2.20% |
| Baron Global Advantage Fund | 2.10% |
| Baron Asset Fund | 1.50% |
| Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund | 0.80% |
Nikxice
Active Member
No skin in the game. The valuation estimates of SpaceX over the past year reflect a nice run. October '21...100B, August '22...127B, November '22...150B.
Not 100% sure, but if Elon is involved in the sale of SpaceX stock, the IRS might be the first to know. The only source I found requiring disclosure stated there's a legal need if a company officer is selling within 3 years of an IPO. Imagine that would also include a Starlink IPO, so there's that to consider. I've linked a recent related article below, but think it might offer more questions than answers.
Elon Musk Denies "False" Reports of SpaceX Stock Sale
No opinion on how much Starship value has already been built into the stock. Moving forward, the future success of SH/Starship strikes me as a huge factor in the movement of the stock.
Not 100% sure, but if Elon is involved in the sale of SpaceX stock, the IRS might be the first to know. The only source I found requiring disclosure stated there's a legal need if a company officer is selling within 3 years of an IPO. Imagine that would also include a Starlink IPO, so there's that to consider. I've linked a recent related article below, but think it might offer more questions than answers.
Elon Musk Denies "False" Reports of SpaceX Stock Sale
No opinion on how much Starship value has already been built into the stock. Moving forward, the future success of SH/Starship strikes me as a huge factor in the movement of the stock.
Something I've seen lately is that Elon will reply "false" to something, but doesn't specify which part is false. So it's possible he objected to the valuation at 150billion vs his selling, or vice versa.
Would be nice if the 'false' was because the next round is at $175B!
SpaceX unveils 'Starshield,' a military variation of Starlink satellites
Elon Musk's SpaceX is expanding its Starlink satellite technology into military applications with a new business line called Starshield.
And now $137B. Oh the humanity...
www.nbcmiami.com
SpaceX Raising $750 Million at a $137 Billion Valuation, Investors Include Andreessen-Horowitz
Last year, SpaceX achieved several new milestones but faced further delays to its Starship program.
www.nbcmiami.com
On the All-In Podcast, Chamath predicts SpaceX will take Starlink public in 2023 as a way to get Elon access to capital (would be good for Tesla shareholders) and that the valuation of Starlink at offering will be at $75B. At 41:20.
Nikxice
Active Member
Good for Chamath, but my two cents. For the retail investor I'm not too impressed by his remarks. His previous 'Space' acumen appeared to be self-serving. His SPAC brought Virgin Galactic public in 2019. As Chairman of the VG/SPCE board he watched the stock climb past $60, then he dumped millions of his personal shares in 2021, as it began falling off a cliff.... Just checked, SPCE closed on Friday at $3.69.... SPAC to SPLAT and I believe Chalmath is still wrangling with an investor class action lawsuit. It seems plausible he resigned from the SPCE board last year just to back off the sigma of directing a loser. Also, haven't heard a peep from Sir Richard about a return to flight.
If Elon wants capital, why wouldn't he just consider cashing out some SpaceX shares? A private stock sale would likely fly more under the radar. EM owns nearly 50% of the company, so it would likely only be a blip. Otherwise, if EM looks to sell newly minted Starlink IPO shares, (after maybe an initial 6 month hold) don't believe it would send a good message to other Starlink investors. Shareholders only need to look back to 2022 and EM's TSLA drawdowns to see how easily he can rattle investors.
Not predicting when or how the Starlink IPO plays out, but wouldn't be surprised to see Chamath working another personal pump and dump.
+1
I would not take anything this guy say seriously. He is a pump-dump scamster just like any other money manager.
Any thoughts on how you would value Starlink? An IPO at 75billion would more than fit my original SpaceX investment thesis where I figured Starlink would IPO and that would generate my full original investment back in shares so my core SpaceX could ride out for the next 10 years etc. without feeling risky.
I guess we will need to see how the market is looking when it finally does happen to decide if holding shares at that price would make sense or to dump after IPO and buy back later if desired.
I guess we will need to see how the market is looking when it finally does happen to decide if holding shares at that price would make sense or to dump after IPO and buy back later if desired.
Elon is not acting like someone who wants to run even one public company much less two. He's also not behaving like someone positioning one of his companies for an IPO.
With that in mind, IMO a Starlink IPO is unlikely until:
(1) At least a modest tech stock recovery
(2) Elon toning down his behavior plus some time for the market to forget about the past 6-12 months
(3) $TSLA rebounding to at least $250 or $300 per share and preferably near ATH or at a new ATH, and
(4) Last but not least Starlink being sustainably cash flow positive and having somewhat predictable future cash flows
So probably 2024 or later
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I'd want them to provide some color on how they plan to scale the business, specifically in terms of high revenue market segments like govt, airlines, backhaul etc. Need that to get a better estimate of future growth and end state for revenue, then can make some educated guesses on costs and expected future earnings.
Once you have an expected steady-state revenue and earnings value, I'd probably still give that at least a 15x multiple to account for future cases beyond current expectations and new product lines. Given that old graph that has been floating around for 5+ years showing over 20B in operating income, we're already talking ~300B IMO
Agree with everything but #3, I don't think that really plays into it at all - besides how #3 is intertwined with #1 and broader market trends. Probably want to see a bit of a risk-free rate cut too, but think JP will throw cold water on that tomorrow.
I think both #1 and #2 are intertwined with #3. Tesla's extremely low P/E relative to growth is a vote of no confidence that the company can maintain growth, profitability or both. Some of that is likely due to macro and some likely due to questions about Elon's management of the company and extracurricular activities and the risks they pose to the company and stock (some is also likely due to concerns about potential competition or other issues specific to Tesla's business).
To the extent TSLA share price remains depressed that will likely reflect ongoing macro issues and/or concerns about Tesla mgmt (Elon) that would likely rub off on Starlink's IPO valuation, although its business obviously is very different than Tesla's.
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Looks like they are jumping into the airline business
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