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SpaceX vs. Everyone - ULA, NG, Boeing, Lockheed, etc.

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I don't necessarily disagree, it was the assertion that even it present tense it "remains the best decision" I'm not so sure is the case.
That end of things - I don't know enough to contribute anything useful to a discussion about what was known when the decision to use Blue Origin for the engines. No industry exposure, nor usable knowledge, etc.. Though I do find this stuff fascinating and like learning about the history and reality of the space biz.
 
Just saying because I've read something about a hard storm a couple of days before the launch, while the rocket was in place.

Anyway a lightning creates such a big EM pulse that it can damage many electronics even far away from the actual impact point.

Boeing initially proposed lightning as a possible cause, but after pushback from NASA Boeing released a statement that it was unlikely.
 

apparently 4 of the valves are still stuck. I’m guessing that isn’t a good sign when they’ve been workin on them for like a week. No word on if theyve figured out a cause, either, which I assume is even worse.
 
I mean, just bang on 'em with a hammer until they free up, right?
Yes, problem initially solved using a little lubrication/soft mallet. MacGyver these cans around the valve actuators. An independent cylindrical unit for each valve. More processes, some additional weight, what could go wrong? It's only 13 propulsion valves and today happens to be Friday the 13th. Boeing old school still rules!

HEV_1628859066480.jpg
 
I would totally want to take that ride into space. What could go wrong with valves that stick? (/s)


More seriously - my totally non-mechanical or rocket scientist brain is thinking that things like valve operation is pretty basic and should have been validated and fully functional like, early in development, rather than something that gets caught in the final checks before launching into space. Am I missing something there? Will NASA want the capsule to go through a static fire test when these fixes are in?

Then again I'm just an interested following of these sorts of things, rather than somebody with actual knowledge or something.
 
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Yes, problem initially solved using a little lubrication/soft mallet. MacGyver these cans around the valve actuators. An independent cylindrical unit for each valve. More processes, some additional weight, what could go wrong? It's only 13 propulsion valves and today happens to be Friday the 13th. Boeing old school still rules!

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That's Mechanical (Rocket) Engineering 101:

“You only need two things in life: Duct Tape and WD-40®. If it moves and shouldn’t, use Duct Tape, if it doesn’t move and should, use WD-40®.”
 
More seriously - my totally non-mechanical or rocket scientist brain is thinking that things like valve operation is pretty basic and should have been validated and fully functional like, early in development

Yes it is pretty basic--my initial though was that it had to be some anomaly upstream in the electronics (or harnessing, or whatever), because valves aren't really at risk of getting stuck, and certainly not a bunch of valves. If it was one...yeah, its probably the valve. Multiple failures are evidence of a systemic issue that bridges everything from component design to system validation. Yikes.
 
Starliner is being destacked. I'd guess we're talking November or later assuming they actually figure out the issues fast enough.... CRS-23 is late August to mid-September. NASA's Lucy and Crew Dragon Crew-3 are hard October dates so likely later....


Scary part: Those 4 valves are STILL closed. That would have been very likely a catastrophic mission fail if not for Nauka's fun on ISS. I'd say that Boeing owes the Russians a beer (or vodka probably) 🤡
 
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Yes it is pretty basic--my initial though was that it had to be some anomaly upstream in the electronics (or harnessing, or whatever), because valves aren't really at risk of getting stuck, and certainly not a bunch of valves. If it was one...yeah, its probably the valve. Multiple failures are evidence of a systemic issue that bridges everything from component design to system validation. Yikes.
That all sounds to me like a more significant and thorough review is going to go onto the docket. Once you add in ISS traffic and "it's space" does this turn into a 1 year delay? Somehow that doesn't sound completely unreasonable to me.
 
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Small NTO leaks could be an old problem, the Shuttle had these valves too,

"Leaks are not something that can be eliminated only mitigated. Whenever the hyperbolic tanks are pressurized the valves then leak. The mitigation is to not pressurize the tanks during storage so leakage is almost zero. But tests can leave residuals that then react with things like moisture that then cause problems the next time the propulsion system is exercised/tested."
 
Small NTO leaks could be an old problem, the Shuttle had these valves too,

"Leaks are not something that can be eliminated only mitigated. Whenever the hyperbolic tanks are pressurized the valves then leak. The mitigation is to not pressurize the tanks during storage so leakage is almost zero. But tests can leave residuals that then react with things like moisture that then cause problems the next time the propulsion system is exercised/tested."

Doesn't Dragon also use NTO? Somehow SpaceX seems to have figured it out.
 
I had no idea what NTO was and had to google it: Nitrogen Textroxide. Apparently used as an oxidizing agent for some rocket propellant.

FWIW, all of the legacy players and in space have plenty of experience with hypergols, most (all?) of which use N2H4 as the oxidizer. Its nasty nasty stuff (the barrels have a sticker that says "you will die if...") and there's an absurd amount of regulations/procedures around its handling/use.

Boeing has a long history of NTO on both their commercial and defense platforms (which are probably similar variants of each other, if not exactly the same...), and certainly the components on the Starliner system (and the team that designed/assembled them) would have, at a minimum, significant commonality with that heritage. They would have long standing processes covering all aspects of their propulsion systems that would have certified these valves for flight that would include multiple verification points where the valves go through activation/leak/flow testing [for ground testing the prop system is typically pressurized with helium], and test results like voltages, response times, calculated flow rates, measured leak rates, etc. would all be trended to ensure in-family performance over time. While not common, valves and even thrusters will be cut out of a propulsion system and replaced with properly functioning units if they fail these tests or their trends are too divergent from the family.

In other words, Its not like Boeing just bolted the Starliner jalopy on top of a rocket with a FIFI stamp on the door...and that's actually what's most concerning about this escape. This isn't just one statistical anomaly that just happened to lottery ticket its way through a full test campaign only to fail at the last second.

Someone mentioned somewhere humidity might be a cause. That's plausible if not likely--along with unintended impact from temperature--as those are likely the only two major variables relative to previous hardware Boeing has flown. The twist is that pretty much the entire life of Starliner, including the above noted tests, would have been within a temp and humidity controlled cleanroom environment. No doubt there was some analysis and (hopefully) actual testing in the "its not just another 702" environments, but that...at least it would seem....was likely done in a less than comprehensive manner at the engineering level, not the production level. One could imagine some lower level analysis/testing being focused on the parts themselves and maybe not fully contemplating the complexity of the system level environment when strapped on top of a rocket in Florida.

The good news is that Boeing has (as do all big aerospace entities) plenty of root cause analysis capability, so--embarrassment cover-ups aside--they should be able to get to the bottom of it and provide all of us a sufficient explaination. IMHO at this point, they best they can hope for is to trace it back to some lot problem at the valve manufacturer, AND find a smoking gun that shitcans that lot while exonerating the rest of the products that mfg pushes out onto the dock.
 
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