Speculation: Model S/X being discontinued?

[mxnym]

Great vehicles to introduce new tech and features before determining if it’s ready for the masses.

This sounds great in theory, and it's how things should be done IMO, but I don't think my opinion flies with automakers. I assume the recent historical trend is that flagship models don't get new stuff until it's proven in lower models. This seems to be true across all makes and has repeatedly frustrated me pre-Tesla as a potential consumer when I want certain features on flagships but can only get them on lower end vehicles. However, post Tesla, consider these:
Which models had the horizontal MCU first?
Which models had the cabin camera first?
Which models had the fancy HVAC direction controls?
Which models had matrix headlights first?
IIRC, even HW3 may have made it to the same models first...

 

[Destiny1701]

Not sure I follow that logic entirely bud…sometimes it’s just a matter of lifecycle timing.

Which models had the auto gear shift first?
Which models have active noise cancelling first?
Which models have tri motor first?
Which models have adaptive suspension first?
Which models introduced yoke and stalkless first?
Which models have rear wireless phone chargers first?
Which models have rear display entertainment and controls?
Which models have perforated and cooling seats first?

There is plenty the S/X is testing out prior to absorption by 3/Y. Some will make it, others not so.

 

[EbS-P]

So what if there was a Platinum version of the 3 and Y? With all the upgraded features. Say from a third party. Would that hurt S/X sales? Are OEM trim levels dead?

 

[Olle]

Not sure I follow that logic entirely bud…sometimes it’s just a matter of lifecycle timing.

Which models had the auto gear shift first?
Which models have active noise cancelling first?
Which models have tri motor first?
Which models have adaptive suspension first?
Which models introduced yoke and stalkless first?
Which models have rear wireless phone chargers first?
Which models have rear display entertainment and controls?
Which models have perforated and cooling seats first?

There is plenty the S/X is testing out prior to absorption by 3/Y. Some will make it, others not so.

Exactly!
And the list goes on:

• Small cylindrical cell water-cooled battery pack
• Supercharging
• 17" touchscreen with nearly button free interior
• Auto presenting door handles
• OTA updates
• Mobile phone app
• AWD
• Autopilot
• Bioweapon Defense Mode
• Summon
• All four doors auto open and close
• Falcon wing doors
• Carbon wrapped rotors
• Auto tilting center display
• + thousands of other things under the skin..

IMHO Roaster 1 and S/X were always testbeds for 3/Y as part of the masterplan. They just didn't have time and money to prepare for all in original S/X production. Once up and running, you have to hit the cost learning curve where any change will reset the clock. Many planned features came later, not as a change, rather as a filling of a planned production and logistics channel, for example AWD. Early S is mostly an AWD car with the front drive train and other pieces missing.

When they they finally did add new features to S/X in 2021, it costed a year of lost production to reconfigure the supply chain and line for the updates. 2021 was probably the first time they could afford such a stop. The current S/X is also a testbed for Roadster 2, Semi, "Model 2" and maybe more.

Still works great as a testbed after eliminating RHD. That elimination in itself is a market and customer reaction test, btw.

 

[CTDW]

So what if there was a Platinum version of the 3 and Y? With all the upgraded features. Say from a third party. Would that hurt S/X sales? Are OEM trim levels dead?

It would help the feature divide but not the size difference. We got a M3P first to test the whole EV experience, and once we decided EVs were for us, I replaced it with an MSP. The model 3 was too small.

 

[Richbot]

I see no reason for them to continue making S and X, so long as they have a successor product to slot into the premium crossover segment, which is obscenely lucrative almost everywhere, and the premium sedan segment, which is not here but is elsewhere

They have not suggested they will be making any variants of the 3/Y platform, so that leaves the mostly-aluminum, all-rubegoldbergian, S/X

with no successor on the horizon anytime soon, I think it'll keep going, for now. Maybe until 2030

 

[EbS-P]

I see no reason for them to continue making S and X, so long as they have a successor product to slot into the premium crossover segment, which is obscenely lucrative almost everywhere, and the premium sedan segment, which is not here but is elsewhere

They have not suggested they will be making any variants of the 3/Y platform, so that leaves the mostly-aluminum, all-rubegoldbergian, S/X

with no successor on the horizon anytime soon, I think it'll keep going, for now. Maybe until 2030

Once other automakers produce NACS luxury vehicles the S and X will face competition that will impact sales. So they need a refresh or new model in 24 months. I don’t see the latter on the horizon. The platform is now old. Yes they have made changes. But rotating the screen, more power, and suspension improvements are not what the industry is used to.

 

[Destiny1701]

It would help the feature divide but not the size difference. We got a M3P first to test the whole EV experience, and once we decided EVs were for us, I replaced it with an MSP. The model 3 was too small.

Interesting. We came from an S in 2016 and again 2018…now a 2022 M3 LR. Tbh the interior space is 8% diff and not as noticeable as the outside which is 18% smaller. I find while the 3 is not as fast straight line (0-100 3.6 w/boost) our 3 handles incredible Vs the S. We had a P100D also. S to us was more touring pleasure Vs point and shoot accuracy.
Diff feel and diff cars.

S is by far a nicer place to be

 

[gt2690b]

I would love a super X or something that better competes with the R1S

 

[strider]

I would love a super X or something that better competes with the R1S

What do you mean by "super"? Size is pretty similar between the 2 (except for height), X is higher performance, 7 seats...

 

[gt2690b]

What do you mean by "super"? Size is pretty similar between the 2 (except for height), X is higher performance, 7 seats...

1. price
2. cargo space
3. ground clearance

 

[Richbot]

R1S comes standard with 7 seats, and performance is certainly adequate for a truck, it's about what you want to do - X is a lot slower if you need to tow 5001 or more pounds of trailer, R1S can actually handle some tongue weight, etc. R1S has significantly more-usable cargo areas as well, frunk and trunk are both a lot bigger. And yeah, if you actually want to go off-road for real, X's performance there is not as great - not enough travel for rough roads. Imagine that, bigger more capable vehicles are bigger and more capable - at the expense of weight.

R1S also drives like a truck. So if you don't mind truck driving dynamics, great. If you prefer cars, it's not a great option unless you also have a car to drive. I drove an R1S and was expecting electric Range Rover, maybe electric Merc GLS, instead it's more like electric Land Cruiser, and if you've driven the most recent european mall crawlers and Land Cruisers you'll get what I mean - the GLS for instance handles pretty well for a 3-ton vehicle, it's no X, but it doesn't feel like it's being asked to do something nobody tested in the engineering phase when you push it around a corner. The 200-series Land Cruiser feels every bit the truck, and R1S reminds me a lot of the LC200, just with a LOT more firepower

I don't think X is a competitor, any more than X would be a competitor to the EQG, or the upcoming electric Escalade iQ. Different class of vehicle that Tesla has no announced plans to compete in

 

[mxnym]

Not sure I follow that logic entirely bud…sometimes it’s just a matter of lifecycle timing.

Which models had the auto gear shift first?
Which models have active noise cancelling first?
Which models have tri motor first?
Which models have adaptive suspension first?
Which models introduced yoke and stalkless first?
Which models have rear wireless phone chargers first?
Which models have rear display entertainment and controls?
Which models have perforated and cooling seats first?

There is plenty the S/X is testing out prior to absorption by 3/Y. Some will make it, others not so.

Everything I mentioned was in the 3/Y first. AFAICT, everything you mentioned is in the X/Y exclusively. My response was about the suggestion that the flagship model is a place to test new features. Testing new features implies they will spread to the other models (hence first vs exclusively), but flagship models having features that other models won't doesn't have anything to do with testing. While some of these features may make it to the CyberTruck, it didn't exist, so it couldn't have them first. If any of these features make it to the 3/Y, that implies that Tesla simply drops new features in with refreshes regardless of model (just a matter of lifecycle timing, like you said). This would also be counter to the suggestion that they X/Y are used for testing new features before they are deployed to the masses. My point was simply that Tesla doesn't use the S/X to introduce new tech and features regardless of whether this is for some reason similar to the reasons of legacy automakers (i.e. economies of scale) or lifecycle timing.

 

[Destiny1701]

Everything I mentioned was in the 3/Y first. AFAICT, everything you mentioned is in the X/Y exclusively. My response was about the suggestion that the flagship model is a place to test new features. Testing new features implies they will spread to the other models (hence first vs exclusively), but flagship models having features that other models won't doesn't have anything to do with testing. While some of these features may make it to the CyberTruck, it didn't exist, so it couldn't have them first. If any of these features make it to the 3/Y, that implies that Tesla simply drops new features in with refreshes regardless of model (just a matter of lifecycle timing, like you said). This would also be counter to the suggestion that they X/Y are used for testing new features before they are deployed to the masses. My point was simply that Tesla doesn't use the S/X to introduce new tech and features regardless of whether this is for some reason similar to the reasons of legacy automakers (i.e. economies of scale) or lifecycle timing.

Good point. Seems more like lifecycle timing of each model more than anything and where their overall tech and R&D happens to be at that particular time for go live deployment Vs product testing.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Hi guys I’m wondering about what you think if Tesla no longer made the Model S/X, I know that Tesla announced that they won’t make RHD Model S/X vehicles. Is this an early sign of death for these cars, or is there something bigger that Tesla is planning?

Nothing bigger, not a sign of death.

The major RHD markets aren't good for S and X and they don't need to make RHD to use S and X as test beds. Plus, the more-money-than-sense market might buy LHD anyway.

They don't need RHD to use S and X as a testbed.

 

[Olle]

Everything I mentioned was in the 3/Y first. AFAICT, everything you mentioned is in the X/Y

Assuming you mean S/X?

exclusively. My response was about the suggestion that the flagship model is a place to test new features. Testing new features implies they will spread to the other models (hence first vs exclusively), but flagship models having features that other models won't doesn't have anything to do with testing. While some of these features may make it to the CyberTruck, it didn't exist, so it couldn't have them first. If any of these features make it to the 3/Y, that implies that Tesla simply drops new features in with refreshes regardless of model (just a matter of lifecycle timing, like you said). This would also be counter to the suggestion that they X/Y are used for testing new features before they are deployed to the masses. My point was simply that Tesla doesn't use the S/X to introduce new tech and features regardless of whether this is for some reason similar to the reasons of legacy automakers (i.e. economies of scale) or lifecycle timing.

Well then, let's distill my list down to things that were tested first in S/X, then came to other vehicles (comment in brackets only some models inherent them by now) :

• Small cylindrical cell water-cooled battery pack
• Supercharging
• Large touchscreen in a nearly button free interior
• OTA updates
• Mobile phone app
• AWD (3/Y)
• Autopilot (3/Y)
• Bioweapon Defense Mode (Y, Semi)
• Summon (3/Y)
• Carbon wrapped rotors (Semi)

Based on this, we can say that S/X are used for testing new features before they are deployed to the masses.

 

[mxnym]

Assuming you mean S/X?

Well then, let's distill my list down to things that were tested first in S/X, then came to other vehicles (comment in brackets only some models inherent them by now) :

• Small cylindrical cell water-cooled battery pack
• Supercharging
• Large touchscreen in a nearly button free interior
• OTA updates
• Mobile phone app
• AWD (3/Y)
• Autopilot (3/Y)
• Bioweapon Defense Mode (Y, Semi)
• Summon (3/Y)
• Carbon wrapped rotors (Semi)

Based on this, we can say that S/X are used for testing new features before they are deployed to the masses.

No, you need to see my prior comment and think about when and why given features are included where more broadly. When the 3/Y/Semi/Cybertruck didn't exist, any feature that was deployed to the S/X wasn't deployed to the S/X because they were the testbed, it was deployed to the S/X because they were the exclusive options. That takes at least 90% of your examples out of play. TBH, your response reinforces the point I was trying to make in the comment to which you are responding.