Starlink and Ukraine War discussion

[bxr140]

I doubt Russia has the ability to take out thousands of Starlink satellites.

They don’t have to. Colliding with one satellite in a shell will massively disrupt activity in that shell for months, if not years. The whole thing doesn't even have to go Kessler either. A number of well placed debris clouds will send satellites scrambling; a bad actor simply needs to keep up with disruption and stay ahead of the scramble, not with the starlink launch rate. 1 in 100 is probably more than enough of a kill ratio.

Obviously the world will get real miffed long before Vlad hucks up his second kinetic let alone his 40th so this is all kind of academic anyway...but...no...to achieve the goal there's no need to kill anywhere near every satellite.

 

[ecarfan]

I don’t know who that random YouTube guy is but that hardly seems like a credible source of information. That video is a non-stop barrage of clips shown while the narrator is speaking of Elon doing various interviews that have no relevance to the topic interspersed with a variety of irrelevant animations used over and over again. The overall effect is of someone who hasn’t done any real reporting but wants to look like he has pulled information from a variety of sources based on the images. It’s cheesy in the extreme.

And the “4000” number is claimed to come from ”Russian media”, with no specific source given. So we are to believe that after Putin threatened to destroy commercial satellite networks that he believes are aiding Ukraine, the ”Russian media” is publicly stating that Putin’s threat is not achievable? Putin controls the Russian media.

That YouTube video is a ridiculous hodgepodge of 90% nonsense.

I realize that there are thousands of Starlinks in orbit and destroying a few of them is not going to shut down the system. But it would create thousands of very dangerous pieces of metal in orbit for months if not years and that is a serious potential problem.

The ISS has repeatedly had to alter its orbit to avoid debris from a single Russian anti-satellite test that blew up an old Russian sat. Now imagine Russia blowing up multiple sats, all at about the same altitude.

 

[mspohr]

It's complicated...

Ukraine suffered a comms outage when 1,300 SpaceX satellite units went offline over funding issues | CNN Politics

Ukraine's fears that its troops  may lose access to Elon Musk's crucial Starlink internet service deepened in the past week after 1,300 of the military's satellite units went offline, according to two sources familiar with the outage.

www.cnn.com

Ukraine’s fears that its troops  may lose access to Elon Musk’s crucial Starlink internet service deepened in the past week after 1,300 of the military’s satellite units went offline, according to two sources familiar with the outage.
The outage affected a block of 1,300 terminals that Ukraine purchased from a British company in March and were used for combat-related operations.
SpaceX was charging Ukraine’s military $2,500 a month to keep each of the 1,300 units connected, pushing the total cost to almost $20 million by September, the person briefed on the matter said. Eventually, they could no longer afford to pay, the person said.

“Negotiations are very much underway. Everyone in our building knows we’re going to pay them,” the senior Pentagon official told CNN, adding that the department is eager to have commitments in writing “because we worry he’ll change his mind.”

The September letter from SpaceX to the Pentagon said there were almost 20,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine. At that time, by SpaceX’s own admission, the majority of them were fully or partially purchased with outside funding, including from the US, Polish and UK governments. The letter claimed those sources paid for about 30% of the monthly connectivity bill as well.

Whether greater cooperation with SpaceX would give the US government stronger control over the Starlink signal in Ukraine has not been answered. Currently SpaceX controls where Ukraine Starlink terminals can be used and outages have previously been reported by Ukrainian units near the front, as they advanced and liberated Russian-held areas.

As a result, Musk’s control of the signal gives him significant sway over the battlefield at a time when he has come under heavy criticism for arguing that Ukraine should sue for peace and give up some of its territory.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Whether greater cooperation with SpaceX would give the US government stronger control over the Starlink signal in Ukraine has not been answered. Currently SpaceX controls where Ukraine Starlink terminals can be used and outages have previously been reported by Ukrainian units near the front, as they advanced and liberated Russian-held areas.

This is not an easy thing to co-ordinate and the US military absolutely needs to be in the loop here. You need military specialists to figure out which areas to turn on and off, not over worked Starlink engineers sitting in California. Really, the US military needs to get its act together here, this isn't a SpaceX failing. The fact that the confidential SpaceX letter got leaked is further proof that the US military has problems.

 

[Grendal]

This is not an easy thing to co-ordinate and the US military absolutely needs to be in the loop here. You need military specialists to figure out which areas to turn on and off, not over worked Starlink engineers sitting in California. Really, the US military needs to get its act together here, this isn't a SpaceX failing. The fact that the confidential SpaceX letter got leaked is further proof that the US military has problems.

Agreed. This seems to be the military's issue. Let's also be clear that Russia is doing everything they can to disrupt communications. These "outages" may have nothing to do with SpaceX, even though the article is making it seem as though Elon is personally controlling who is communicating and when. The article also points out that others are paying some of the costs of equipping and some of the costs of connectivity. The point they seem to be pushing aside is that SpaceX is still paying a lot of costs out of pocket. So the military should be doing everything they can to assist SpaceX in keeping communications open as much as possible in every place possible. Some of that may be happening anyway. Let's be clear that "news" agencies are about making their own profit and making anything and everything as controversial as possible.

Of course it's also possible that Elon is a James Bond villain controlling everything personally...

 

[scaesare]

Indeed. The slant in that "news" article is practically shamefiul.

What other private industry isn't being outright paid for their products or services? Raytheon? BAE? Lockheed Martin? Even those "donated" to Ukraine, were purchased by a gov't and then donated. Yet Elon/Starlink donated terminals and have donated a significant chunk of service time, and are being made out to look greedy or petty.

No good deed goes unpunished, especially by Elon, it seems...

 

[mspohr]

Russian Arms Manufacturer Developing Tech to Hunt Starlink Dishes

The 'Borshchevik' promises to detect a Starlink dish within 5 to 60 meters of its actual location.

www.pcmag.com

Earlier this month, a mysterious company called Sestroretsk Arms Factory published a website(Opens in a new window) that debuted the “Borshchevik” or “hogweed” system, which is designed to locate Starlink dishes at a distance of up to 10 kilometers (6.2 miles).

The technology can supposedly pinpoint a Starlink dish within 5 to 60 meters (16 to 196 feet) of its actual location. In addition, it can be fitted on top of a moving vehicle, allowing it to detect Starlink activity across the front lines on a battlefield.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Russian Arms Manufacturer Developing Tech to Hunt Starlink Dishes

The 'Borshchevik' promises to detect a Starlink dish within 5 to 60 meters of its actual location.

www.pcmag.com

Earlier this month, a mysterious company called Sestroretsk Arms Factory published a website(Opens in a new window) that debuted the “Borshchevik” or “hogweed” system, which is designed to locate Starlink dishes at a distance of up to 10 kilometers (6.2 miles).

The technology can supposedly pinpoint a Starlink dish within 5 to 60 meters (16 to 196 feet) of its actual location. In addition, it can be fitted on top of a moving vehicle, allowing it to detect Starlink activity across the front lines on a battlefield.

A while ago Elon warned Ukranians in battle areas to use Starlink carefully. I am quite sure all combatants know all the details in the high tech arms race.

 

[betstarship]

Starlink can help save Ukraine's economy, too

The internet isn't just for calling in missile strikes.

qz.com

"Keeping Ukraine’s economy going as the country devotes resources to the war and Russia blocks many of its exports. In 2021, before the conflict began, Ukraine exported $6.8 billion in IT services, about one-tenth of the country’s total sales abroad. The OECD has argued that doubling down on that digital economy could be vital to a post-war recovery.

But keeping cash flowing in is just as important now. Fedorov says that IT sales have actually grown during the war, at least through October, when Russia stepped up its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure. Now, Fedorov says internet companies are obtaining generators and using Starlink connections to meet the demand for their work."

Also, Starlink is now at 1M customers and $1B+ in annual revenue.

 

[mspohr]

A while ago Elon warned Ukranians in battle areas to use Starlink carefully. I am quite sure all combatants know all the details in the high tech arms race.

Saw an interesting report from the UK MOD on lessons for modern warfare from Ukraine.
One of the points was that everything needs to be distributed and mobile. You can't have a concentration of any resource (people, weapons, etc.) fixed in one place. Drones and precision artillery make them sitting ducks.
So. Ukraine just needs to keep moving these around along with their other assets.

 

[betstarship]

More: Starlink in Ukraine is now funded by the EU. This marks a real line in the sand for regulatory approval everywhere on the planet for Starlink. As a country, you'll be behind the curve if you don't adopt Starlink because every country in the G20+ is.

Ukraine Secures Funding for an Additional 10,000 Starlink Terminals

A number of European Union countries are reportedly set to help fund the war-torn country's new terminals.

gizmodo.com

 

[Grendal]

Shotwell: Ukraine “weaponized” Starlink in war against Russia

SpaceX’s president said that Ukraine used Starlink for offensive purposes in its war against Russia, an application SpaceX didn’t intend to support.

spacenews.com

 

[nwdiver]

Shotwell: Ukraine “weaponized” Starlink in war against Russia

SpaceX’s president said that Ukraine used Starlink for offensive purposes in its war against Russia, an application SpaceX didn’t intend to support.

spacenews.com

Unless they used Starlink against Russian targets prior to Feb 24th 2022 it was 110% defensive not offensive.

 

[ecarfan]

Unless they used Starlink against Russian targets prior to Feb 24th 2022 it was 110% defensive not offensive.

Reasonable people can differ about the meanings of “defensive” and “offensive” in this situation. I certainly take your point that fundamentally, in this conflict Ukraine is “defending” their territory and sovereignty.

From the article:

SpaceX was providing Ukraine with Starlink services, she said, for humanitarian applications. Even some generic military communications were also acceptable. “We know the military is using them for comms and that’s OK. But our intent was never to have them use it for offensive purposes.”

Although I am a huge Shotwell admirer, in this case I think she is splitting hairs and her position is not defensible (Pun unintended). To try to say that some Starlink military uses are okay and others are not is not justifiable, in my opinion. Modern warfare requires reliable high speed communications capability. Starlink provides that. SpaceX enabled Starlink use in Ukraine and everyone could foresee that Starlink would then be used by the military.

I am very disappointed in Shotwell’s statements in this instance.

 

[Joe F]

I don't understand the problem here. Drones, at least my DJI drone, do not communicate with their control unit over the Internet.

My controller does not need Internet access to control my drone.

What does the decision have to do with Ukraine using Starlink to control drones for any action against Russia, defensive or offensive?

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't understand the problem here. Drones, at least my DJI drone, do not communicate with their control unit over the Internet.

My controller does not need Internet access to control my drone.

What does the decision have to do with Ukraine using Starlink to control drones for any action against Russia, defensive or offensive?

My personal suspicion is that Ukraine used Starlink to operate the drone boats for the various attacks on Sevastpol harbour and Kerch bridge, and that is likely what Shotwell is referring to. It is notable that subsequently there have been no such attacks. And we know Starlink has the capability to geofence terminals.

My personal opinion is that offensive tactics carried out by a defender who is seeking to expel an aggressive invader are perfectly reasonable. However it is also reasonable that a service provider can set their own use limits.

Tricky.

 

[ecarfan]

I don't understand the problem here. Drones, at least my DJI drone, do not communicate with their control unit over the Internet.

My controller does not need Internet access to control my drone.

What does the decision have to do with Ukraine using Starlink to control drones for any action against Russia, defensive or offensive?

I don’t know much about consumer grade drones but I assume that your drone controller has a range limit of less than 1 kilometer. Ukraine is likely using drones that they want to be able to control remotely over distances of multiple kilometers, tens of kilometers, or much farther.

 

[Unclepaul]

This will also keep Russia guessing of where Starlink is turned on, and where turned off. Starlink controlls the switches and they are not talking.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I don’t know much about consumer grade drones but I assume that your drone controller has a range limit of less than 1 kilometer. Ukraine is likely using drones that they want to be able to control remotely over distances of multiple kilometers, tens of kilometers, or much farther.

We've owned several DJI drones. I don't know the exact ranges of each but they can be controlled from several miles away. The current DJI RC works up to 9 miles (15 km) away. Some consumer drones can easily be upgraded to use cell signals and there are videos of them flying between some Hawaiian islands. Here's one video from a guy that regularly does long distance flights with his drone via cellular:

 

[petit_bateau]

We've owned several DJI drones. I don't know the exact ranges of each but they can be controlled from several miles away. The current DJI RC works up to 9 miles (15 km) away. Some consumer drones can easily be upgraded to use cell signals and there are videos of them flying between some Hawaiian islands. Here's one video from a guy that regularly does long distance flights with his drone via cellular:

The drone boats were likely controlled from approx 500-700 km distance (300-500 miles) for the various Sevastpol attacks and the (likely imho) the Kerch bridge attack. The pictures of the drone boats seem to indicate a Starlink antenna is mounted on them.