Speculation on my part: Logic would tell me that they keep line #1 producing model S while they start producing only Xs on line # 2. At one point (above my pay grade to say when) they start shifting model S production onto line #2. Again..speculation..There is talk of a refresh on model S. I would suggest that this refresh occurs in late Q4 or ealy Q1 2016 when the shift of model S from line #1 to line #2 occurs.
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Speculation on my part: Logic would tell me that they keep line #1 producing model S while they start producing only Xs on line # 2. At one point (above my pay grade to say when) they start shifting model S production onto line #2. Again..speculation..There is talk of a refresh on model S. I would suggest that this refresh occurs in late Q4 or ealy Q1 2016 when the shift of model S from line #1 to line #2 occurs.
No great significance, I think. That could simply be 4th of July week shutdown…in Tesla time.
heh. well played.
goneskiian
Active Member
Um, isn't this the first full week after the most likely release of the Q2 financials?
I can think of two possible reasons for the lack of tours during the week of August 10th:
1.) Elon indicated that he wanted to keep the Model-X under wraps until the first deliveries, so perhaps production is starting on the Model-X that week and some changes are required on the line to make that happen. It may be impossible for them to hide the Model-X from a factory tour during that time. Once the line is fully operational, I suspect that they'll be able to segregate the tours in such a way that they can avoid the Model-X specific line until the reveal.
2.) Or, the guy who arranges the factory tours is on vacation that week.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
How can they keep everything under wraps and have people configure their vehicles before delivery? I'm not sure that makes any sense. I keep being told that by the end of this month we should know more, and that configuration for the first round of deliveries would begin shortly thereafter.
First deliveries will probably just mean Founders Series - specced in secret and delivered to insiders at or around the unveil.
That said, some on TMC like to toy with the idea that first few Signature reservations might be specced in secret too. I'm not sure if that is likely or not.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I believe this is the most likely scenario. Board members, major investors, and Tesla employees could be offered early access to configuration info under an NDA.
The rest of us are in for a seemingly long wait. "Wake Me Up When September Ends".
AR: IMO that is exactly what is happening. These people are under tremendous pressure to deliver the product AND keep the details under wraps. They probably release a lot of tension by reading all our conjectures
RS: Agreed
I would think they do it the other way around. Starting a new line is a massive operation with a multidude of possible errors. Then you start out with a product that is known and you have experience with - to lower the amount of problems on startup.
IIRC: there is a report out of TMConnect that that at a talk given by TM management indicated the scenario just as I laid out. Line 2 initially produces only X and line 1 produces S. Once they feel comfortable with line 2 ramp then they do both X and S on line 2 and convert line 1 over to prep for model 3
I heard all the Connect presentations by Tesla employees. Part of what you say is accurate. Line 2 will initially be X only but will quickly transition to X and S. However, what I heard is that Line 1 will remain S only. I heard nothing about it being converted to "prep" for Model 3.
I thought Tesla said that after the S transitions to line 2 that line 1 will be shut down and they will start reorganizing the factory for gen 3. They won't be reusing line 1, just the space it currently occupies in the factory.
I believe that is what I heard. Line 1 is inefficient and will be remodeled
expect the new line to be like no other auto line and be much more advanced...& like the paint shop. just crazy awesome
