Suddenly more interested in the S forums

[sorka]

I'll take both of those bets for a dollar, sparky.

You're on.

 

[TaoJones]

@TaoJones. Why do you feel the need to randomly go around and dislike my posts?

Because they're randomly dislikable. Put up yer $2 or hush.

Edit: I see the "You're on" above . Cool. May the best prognosticator win.

 

[sorka]

Because they're randomly dislikable. Put up yer $2 or hush.

Edit: I see the "You're on" above . Cool. May the best prognosticator win.

You caught the falling knife. I deleted that post 10 seconds after I made it

So I guess you don't feel Tesla will come even close to their total projected production numbers over the next 18 months?

 

[TaoJones]

You caught the falling knife. I deleted that post 10 seconds after I made it

So I guess you don't feel Tesla will come even close to their total projected production numbers over the next 18 months?

Here's my best swag of the moment for *after* the next 15-18 months or so:

Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

Added: So you could say I trend conservative short term and won't lose sleep about it. I'd rather half the accelerated forecast and a lower defect rate. Bodes well for scaling and in the end (by 2019), the stock price should do just fine.

 

[roblab]

Happens a lot, heheh.

My wife said that in all her years driving (we're both 63), it was the first car she ever really WANTED. You have been warned!

I kept the Fit btw, because in all of its greatness, the Model S cannot be towed behind my motorhome <sigh>

Wait until autopilot PA 2.0. You just tell your S to meet you there. No need to tow.

 

[Cnasty]

Took a test drive yesterday, will order this week.

Want to get the referral bonus while I can as it expires on the 15th I think so I need to move.

Also will keep the 3 reserve as we will move way up in the queue and replace my wife's car in 2 years and be all EV!!!

 

[pedriscoll]

I did the ame thing in May 2015. I was planning to wait for the 3 when a sales associate (and Tesla owner) offered to bring a Model S to my home for a test drive. 5 minutes into the drive I was hooked and ordered a week later. I have 20000 miles on my 85D and have a Model 3 reservation for my wife.

 

[sorka]

Here's my best swag of the moment for *after* the next 15-18 months or so:

Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

Added: So you could say I trend conservative short term and won't lose sleep about it. I'd rather half the accelerated forecast and a lower defect rate. Bodes well for scaling and in the end (by 2019), the stock price should do just fine.

....and my point is they should easily have produced 200K cars TOTAL by the time the 3 ships

 

[TaoJones]

....and my point is they should easily have produced 200K cars TOTAL by the time the 3 ships

Even if they do, the full tax credit will apply to all vehicles produced in the 1-2 quarters after the 200K for domestic orders are delivered. The keys being domestic orders and delivered.

 

[sorka]

Even if they do, the full tax credit will apply to all vehicles produced in the 1-2 quarters after the 200K for domestic orders are delivered. The keys being domestic orders and delivered.

They *might* get 1 calendar quarter after the 200K are reached if they time it just right, but starting the next quarter after the 200K is reached, it goes to 50%:

Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

 

[Saghost]

They *might* get 1 calendar quarter after the 200K are reached if they time it just right, but starting the next quarter after the 200K is reached, it goes to 50%:

Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

Did you read what you quoted?

They get the rest of the current quarter (and Elon has already said they'll try to plan to hit early in a quarter,) then another entire quarter at full credit - then, 3-6 months after the 200k car is sold, the credit drops to half for a couple quarters and so on.

I'd expect almost six months beyond the 200k mark, and I doubt they'll hit that mark before the first 3 ships unless the the has big delays.

 

[TaoJones]

They *might* get 1 calendar quarter after the 200K are reached if they time it just right, but starting the next quarter after the 200K is reached, it goes to 50%:

Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

All agreed. The theoretical maximum application of the tax credit would be for all units produced after unit 200,000 for the rest of that quarter *plus 1 quarter thereafter at full rate*.

Fair warning: You and anyone else reading past this point might want to ingest a proper quantity of the recreational substance of your choice (a generous glass of bourbon, for example). Or to don hip waders. All set? Ok - here we go:

So *if* Elon decided to produce left hand drive models for overseas through the end of Q0 after reaching 199,999 domestic units produced earlier in Q0,

And *if* he subsequently chose to produce domestic unit 200,000 at the start of day 1 of Q1,

And *if* he then chose to produce nothing but domestic units from that moment forward until the very end of Q2, 26 weeks hence, at full bore record-setting maximum cojones-out production, with nary a hiccup in the process from end to end,

*then* I present to you how not 200,000, not 300,000, but how a FULL 400,000 DOMESTIC UNITS could indeed qualify for the full federal tax credit before the *next* 250,000 domestic units produced over Q3 and Q4 would qualify for half credit.

And all it would take is production not at 10,000 units per week but a scant 8,000 units per week in Q1 and Q2.

*grin* Call it billionaire's prerogative.

You read it here first.

Edit: Curses! Second!

 

[sorka]

All agreed. The theoretical maximum application of the tax credit would be for all units produced after unit 200,000 for the rest of that quarter *plus 1 quarter thereafter at full rate*.

Fair warning: You and anyone else reading past this point might want to ingest a proper quantity of the recreational substance of your choice (a generous glass of bourbon, for example). Or to don hip waders. All set? Ok - here we go:

So *if* Elon decided to produce left hand drive models for overseas through the end of Q0 after reaching 199,999 domestic units produced earlier in Q0,

And *if* he subsequently chose to produce domestic unit 200,000 at the start of day 1 of Q1,

And *if* he then chose to produce nothing but domestic units from that moment forward until the very end of Q2, 26 weeks hence, at full bore record-setting maximum cojones-out production, with nary a hiccup in the process from end to end,

*then* I present to you how not 200,000, not 300,000, but how a FULL 400,000 DOMESTIC UNITS could indeed qualify for the full federal tax credit before the *next* 250,000 domestic units produced over Q3 and Q4 would qualify for half credit.

And all it would take is production not at 10,000 units per week but a scant 8,000 units per week in Q1 and Q2.

*grin* Call it billionaire's prerogative.

You read it here first.

Edit: Curses! Second!

A lot of ifs there and not only mostly unlikely but probably near impossible. I predict the 3 will be at least a year later than Tesla is saying and that the 200K limit will long have passed by the time the first 500th 3 is delivered to a customer. I say 500th because I think it likely that a few 3s are delivered over the course of 6 months to a year before real production begins and I don't count those.

 

[sorka]

Did you read what you quoted?

They get the rest of the current quarter (and Elon has already said they'll try to plan to hit early in a quarter,) then another entire quarter at full credit - then, 3-6 months after the 200k car is sold, the credit drops to half for a couple quarters and so on.

How do you interpret that as another entire quarter??????

 

[sorka]

I'd expect almost six months beyond the 200k mark, and I doubt they'll hit that mark before the first 3 ships unless the the has big delays.

Naw, the 3 couldn't possibly have big delays with Tesla's track record

 

[Saghost]

How do you interpret that as another entire quarter??????

"Beginning with the second quarter after the number is reached" - *not* "the quarter after the number is reached"

How else can you read it?

 

[RogerHScott]

Even though I can easily afford to buy the Tesla, I never thought I'd spend that much money on a car.

Amen, brother!

 

[RogerHScott]

I could just about get by financially with the 60D. I may well become another statistic of the "whilst waiting for this" club.

To quote Agent Smith from The Matrix: "Do you know what that sound is, Mr. Anderson? It's the sound of inevitability."

 

[Chopr147]

Exactly. Do such people even exist? .

So, for us, weaker souls, what are you doing now with "extra" model 3 reservation? Waiting? Canceling? Will buy it no matter what?

I'm going to wait to 2nd reveal, but honestly don't see owning 2 Teslas any time soon. Wife already said to not even think about it!

I will not cancel the 3 but my wife's lease does not expire until late 2019. If my number comes up I can see delaying my order. Comes down to how long before lease expiration, where the tax credit is at and if I even like the Tesla

.........................that part was to see if you were paying attention

 

[sorka]

"Beginning with the second quarter after the number is reached" - *not* "the quarter after the number is reached"

How else can you read it?

The quarter that the number is reached is the first quarter. The next quarter is the second quarter.