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Super Bulls Only
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
They reiterated 1,000,000 per year capacity upcoming
I assume ASP40,000, 25% profit
That is 25B profit/yr
About 146M shares in float
$684 profit per share
P/E= 15, solve for P. P =$10,273
Adjust assumptions per your desires.
I assume ASP40,000, 25% profit
That is 25B profit/yr
About 146M shares in float
$684 profit per share
P/E= 15, solve for P. P =$10,273
Adjust assumptions per your desires.
This thinking is only suitable for those injecting Koolaid or disinfectant:
- Lockdown is crippling the world. The loss of jobs will not come back I fear - untold damage to come - mental health pandemic inbound. However, COVID will accelerate the future massively. We were right to lockdown but for Tesla the news can only now be positive. Countries are coming out of lockdown - they won't return even if there is an increase in infections I believe. Sounds bleak but this can only be good for TSLA - Q2 loss is built in and expected.
- Battery day is gonna be epic. When Elon states cost, weight, densities, floorspace; the impact on vehicle performance, efficiency, upfront costs, cost of ownership, can be directly translated. Simpleton analysts can then join the dots to check the likely impact to revenue and profitability. This is the advantage of physical consumer products - any analysts again know that they form a moat that few will bother to plan (let alone designing and making trebuchets) a siege to overcome. Tesla stating that they will make batteries themselves is huge. My assumption is that the Roadster and Semi have been held back as the new battery form factor (4070? rather than 2170) is not interchangeable. Tesla are crossing the chasm.
- We may not be getting S&P500 inclusion until October but I see no reason why we won't get a positive p/e ratio in July for the first time ever. This is a key metric for many investors - might even light up Buffett's dashboard...
- FSD - neural net is working - safety improved by 50% - at some point soon, investors are going to realise Tesla is the only game in town.
- Numerous other good things
I posted on Q2 in the relevant projections thread:- Near-future quarterly financial projections
I'm intrigued by the following optimistic (and deceptive) scenario:-
- Fremont opens May 18th
- GF1 opens May 4th and spends 2 weeks building extra energy storage batteries. (mostly installed Q2)
- Solar roof installs ramp Q2/Q3
- Combined Fremont+Shanghai vehicle production Q2 2020 is only slightly less than Fremont Q2 2019.
- Vehicle margins Q2 2020 are about 5% better than Q2 2019.
- Tesla recognises some additional FSD revenue in Q2 2020.
We could then have a scenario where in Q2 2020 Tesla posts a loss, but it is obvious to some that S&P inclusion is very likely after the Q3 2020 results are posted.
I took a look at the Q2 update letter Automotive Gross margins where only 19%, close to the same deliveries on a 25% margin may be needed. This was achieved Q1 2020, but with significant regulatory credits, achieving it with lower credits would be tougher, but FSD revenue may help.
A complicating factor is the cost of having factories closed, that might result in a bigger loss than Q2 2019, effectively ruling this scenario out.
roblab
Active Member
Well, my wife and I sold our RAV4EV for twice what we paid for it and immediately bought stock in the new startup, TESLA. It's all been up hill since then. I have never felt "rich", but it seems that with two Teslas and everything paid for, plus lots of stock, we're already there. I would imagine there are others who jumped onto the bandwagon early and are also doing well.
Just give yourself time. Tesla has a lot of room to grow, and most of us know what Ford and GM don't. Tesla is the BEST CAR (and charger network) ON THE MARKET! And at this point there's no one to compete.
Short squeeze is still on people. All time high, shorts are underwater and could start covering anytime.
Prepare accordingly.
My average strike price is ~$600. I was going to leverage up in September but FOMO is killing me so will start sooner. High strike price LEAPS are all crazy expensive but that won't stop me.
Might go for something like Jan22 $1100s. Premium is $233.
Superbulls, BTW if you are missing your Superbull fix, you can follow @Garyblack00 (zero zero) (not me) on Twitter.
I know a "Superbull" (not Gary) and they think the Tesla Super Bowl is still ahead of us. They are currently long 5,000 deltas (synthetic shares) through stock options. On average, they were long 6,200 deltas from $235 & onward from April 2019.
They have some research that shows that things are shaping up for a very strong Q2 2020, inclusion may be more likely. More details to be shared after they add to their position
I know a "Superbull" (not Gary) and they think the Tesla Super Bowl is still ahead of us. They are currently long 5,000 deltas (synthetic shares) through stock options. On average, they were long 6,200 deltas from $235 & onward from April 2019.
They have some research that shows that things are shaping up for a very strong Q2 2020, inclusion may be more likely. More details to be shared after they add to their position
Crossposting here...
Some say Model Y production and deliveries of $60k ASP (and less than $40k per unit cost?) will likely drive Tesla to a Q2 2020 profit. Also sales of inventory vehicles that were made in Q1 2020 may have been 5k stronger than in Q1 inventory sales, increases probability that if Tesla produces 78k vehicles, they may deliver 83k.
Seen some buying of Sept 2020 1100 calls on inclusion play. Twitter spike was 6 weeks after S&P inclusion qualifying earnings were announced on 4/25/18. As a result 6 weeks are possibly needed after late July to potentially get full inclusion benefit. Index funds have to buy in great size and RH/MOMO traders may create a blow-off top around $1,500. The price that Tesla is when it is included is crucial as it will decide the dollars that index funds must put in.
Some say Model Y production and deliveries of $60k ASP (and less than $40k per unit cost?) will likely drive Tesla to a Q2 2020 profit. Also sales of inventory vehicles that were made in Q1 2020 may have been 5k stronger than in Q1 inventory sales, increases probability that if Tesla produces 78k vehicles, they may deliver 83k.
Seen some buying of Sept 2020 1100 calls on inclusion play.
Twitter spike was 6 weeks after S&P inclusion qualifying earnings were announced on 4/25/18. As a result 6 weeks are possibly needed after late July to potentially get full inclusion benefit. Index funds have to buy in great size and RH/MOMO traders may create a blow-off top around $1,500. The price that Tesla is when it is included is crucial as it will decide the dollars that index funds must put in.
I don't see how inclusion doesn't happen without a squeeze.Crossposting here...
Some say Model Y production and deliveries of $60k ASP (and less than $40k per unit cost?) will likely drive Tesla to a Q2 2020 profit. Also sales of inventory vehicles that were made in Q1 2020 may have been 5k stronger than in Q1 inventory sales, increases probability that if Tesla produces 78k vehicles, they may deliver 83k.
Seen some buying of Sept 2020 1100 calls on inclusion play.
I don't see how a squeeze doesn't see $2000+.
Shorts will be competing for the same few shares as the ETFs.
I would only bet on inclusion post Q3. The accountant thinks we have a better than 50% chance following Q2 though...
Hey Buckminster,
It's hard to tell how many shares short are short because of market makers who sold puts or hedge funds that are long converts. If most shares short are not short for a functional reason like that, it is agreed that short covering could provide additional upside to my somewhat aggressive target... But...
Wasn't Twitter "heavily" shorted (as a percent of their float) before it was added to the S&P 500?
An inclusion play for Q2 2020 is very aggressive. If you think it's more than 50% probability for Q2, then September calls provide a nice payout if stock has a blow off top to at least $1,500. More money is in leap calls for inclusion Q3 and onward.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Small nitpick: The accountant thinks we have a better than 50% chance of Q2 2020 GAAP profit, not of S&P inclusion.
The former does not automatically lead to the latter.
I agree Q2 2020 GAAP profit would create a SP bump, but regarding S&P inclusion this would be because of speculation of inclusion since TSLA becomes eligible. The true inclusion, THAT would be a squeezier event.
But overall I agree with you: S&P inclusion = TSLA SP rallies greatly. Maybe not $2000 but a few hundred bucks seems likely.