LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Why would Tesla not join the S&P 500 if the Q2 is profitable? Even with a $1 profit, it'd meet the requirements to be included, and is valued enough to already be something like the #35th of the group.
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Super Bulls Only
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Why would Tesla not join the S&P 500 if the Q2 is profitable? Even with a $1 profit, it'd meet the requirements to be included, and is valued enough to already be something like the #35th of the group.
No good reason, but eligibility is still seperate from inclusion. If only temporally.
jeewee3000
Active Member
I know, but Tesla does not have a say in the matter. They must still be invited in the S&P, which is up to third parties, not Tesla.
They have published guidelines, and I don't think they could choose not to let the 34th(? something close to that) biggest US company join once it met the guidelines. Any GAAP profit at all will meet the guidelines, since the really bad Q2'19 will be dropping out of the annual.
Buying popcorn and:
My FOMO is pretty bad because I haven't yet fully leveraged up my LEAPS. I may not convert my last 600s etc. to ~1200s until October which means the squeeze could be in the rear view mirror before I have had a chance to roll up. You can disown me for being a sensible bull if you like - I deserve it.
Attachments
You've been disowned. If the 600s are in a taxable, you can sell the 610s to neutralize them and get a pile of cash without taking the gain. (You may need options approval that allows "vertical" spreads or call spreads).
Anyone doing anything interesting with calls? Lots are selling Puts as part of the Wheel. Some have posted Sept 18 1300C purchases.
Anything else? Any lotto or YOLO?
I looked at July 10th 1100s - $14.70. That is gambling. I will do something similar for ER I expect if prices are still around $1000 though.
Have Jun22 650s and 1000s for low risk leverage (retirement accounts)
Was looking at short term calls during the dip this morning, but more important life things occurred and I missed it. (could have bought last week too, so can't blame circumstance).
My put I sold last week (965p) is finally on the green side, so I've got that going for me.
pz1975
Active Member
On July 1 just before close, I will buy a bunch of weekly (expiring July 2) OTM puts and calls $50 from the strike price. Should be very cheap lottery tickets and should take advantage of a SP move if they happen to announce Q2 deliveries before open July 2 (which I put at 25% chance). I will also close all of my sold puts and calls expiring July 2 (my wheel-like strategy) for the same reason.
Definitely risky as typically Tesla has announced afternoon of the 2nd of the month or after for P&D report. Do you have any color or research on the timing of P&D reports?
pz1975
Active Member
I don’t think they will announce it before on July 2 - I’d give it a 25% chance. I’m willing to lose some lottery play $ taking the chance though. I look at it like I have a 75% chance of losing half of my bet vs. a 25% chance of making 5-20x profit depending on the magnitude of the SP move if deliveries are announced. Seems like a worthwhile risk/reward for a small amount of $.
pz1975
Active Member
Not sure yet - I need to wait until 15 mins before close July 1. I expect the very OTM calls and puts to be quite cheap by then. So maybe (again I am guessing now) 1,050 calls are $1.00 if the SP is 1,000. A very positive deliveries report could bring the SP to 1,070 the next day - that would be a 20x profit. You know, I think the potential is there for 50x profit if everything went perfect. A 10% SP move would not be shocking.What options are you looking at for a 20x profit
I am liking this strategy- with full acknowledgment of risk. Might follow you in the trade tomorrow. Post here right away after you do the trade. My plan is to bet a small position as a gamble. I bought some 07/02 c1095 last week that are still in the red, but plan to hold those with hope that P&D report comes out before market open on 07/02
Doesn’t look like there is much of good opportunities for this. Was looking into it now.
pz1975
Active Member
I ended up buying 1050 and 1020 puts and 1220 and 1260 calls. Spent more than I was expecting but it’s worth the play IMO. It’s basically all free money anyways using half of my profits from sold puts and calls last week and this week.
If the deliveries aren’t announced tomorrow pre-market I should be able to sell them all off for 50% loss. I’m okay with that. I will then try my after market announcement play buying barely OTM puts and calls just before close for pennies and hoping for an an announcement and big move in either way in the 30 mins after close.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
One thing I was surprised with last week was just how much premium / time value was left in options just prior to expiration. These were typically 1 or maybe 2 strikes away. You might find you need to be 2 strikes away to get option premiums down into the pennies.
Good luck! I'm eager to hear how this works out for you.
pz1975
Active Member
Thanks for the info. In the main thread, it was pointed out that Q1 deliveries were announced at 1:05 pm PST after close April 2. That would make my strategy very lucrative if that happens again. My biggest concern would be getting through to my broker on the phone to exercise the puts/calls as there is always a big delay on hold before reaching someone!