You make a lot of assumptions and I'm not seeing much in the way of any factual information here. I have actually taken a look at what other manufacturers are planning in the next few years and it doesn't look like any of the production volumes are going to be high for their full BEVs and most of the releases coming up shortly are either high end competition for the S/X or lower end competition for Leaf, i3, Kona etc. I'm not going to buy any of those ahead of an M3 or MY. I'm not going to try and predict longer term as that is rather pointless unless you have some serious inside knowledge, which I don't and I suspect neither do you. All I'm saying here is that I think demand for Model 3 will be very strong for the next couple of years at least and I can't see "big iron" doing anything other than trying to sell as many ICE vehicles as possible for the next decade or more.
Yes, you sound like you are disagreeing with me and then you come to the same conclusion. Tesla has a lock on the market for "the next couple of years". After that big iron will be making their moves.
You can say I am "assuming", but I think the things I read in the press about the intent of the major car companies and the current events in the market show that "big iron" is taking EVs seriously. All the major automakers have major design efforts underway, that is certain. Multiple companies have announced dates for new EVs. For me the nail in the coffin was GM closing plants and
stating this was in part so they could reduce their product lineup to get ready for the next generation of EVs.
Here are some news reports showing the large interest in making EVs by big iron.
GM Is Closing North American Plants. Another Major Automaker Is Planning to Open a New One
https://www.autonews.com/article/20...nlike-2008-gm-cutting-jobs-plants-proactively
"GM's actions are meant to increase the automaker's profits and strengthen its core business while it doubles investment in autonomous and battery-electric vehicles by 2020 — a year before the automaker is expected to launch an all-new profitable EV platform."
"GM has said it believes self-driving and fully electric vehicles could eventually eclipse profits of its current operations."
'Langley said GM's plan to kill the cars wasn't surprising, but doing it "so quickly is a new phenomenon."'
Big iron doesn't do anything fast, but they've been working on EVs for a long time now and they have decided the time is right. Clearly they see this as an existential threat so they are highly motivated. Ok, that's what I smell on the wind. But I'm willing to make wagers on it too. Tesla is my stock pick for the next two years. After that I'll have to see how things are progressing.
For fun, maybe it would be useful to make a list of EV vehicles you might consider to be direct competition for a Model 3. On the ICE side we have the BMW 3 series, Merc C class etc. But what about direct EV competitors? The Leaf simply isn't in the same class for either performance or desirability and the i3 is nowhere near as practical. What else is coming along, when and in what kind of production volumes? I see very little until you start looking at timescales approaching the end of the M3 lifecycle.
First, I don't see any ICE as competition to any EV. Sure, they compete in the market place, but I don't see anyone making level playing field comparisons buying EVs. EVs are still being sold as very expensive toys, even the model 3. Give it 5 or 10 years and they will be much more competitive with longer ranges and lower prices. So Tesla has a bit of a leg up in the toy aspect. Elon may seem to be a crazy man, but he "gets" that EVs won't initially sell at all like ICE. I don't know if Big Iron gets that or not. Certainly the Bolt isn't at all a "toy".
When the Leaf comes out with a 150 mile range version it will open a much larger market for them I think. You may still not be willing to drive coast to coast in one, but certainly it covers a lot more use cases. It still doesn't make it to Ocean City (my use case that a *lot* of people from my home town do once a year) on a single charge, but it's close. A lunch stop in Cambridge or Queenstown can get you the rest of the trip. My point is 90 to 150 is not a insignificant improvement, not that the Leaf will take over the EV world. The Leaf is viable competition to the low end model 3.
Here Toyota announces they will introduce 10 new EVs over the next 7 years. Not one, not two, but ten!!!
Toyota to make more than 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
More interesting to me is they are starting in China. By the time they hit the US they will have huge production elsewhere already and will be able to hit the ground running. Not something for Tesla to take lightly.
Of course you are as entitled to your personal opinion as much as I am, we just don't quite agree on most of it!
Absolutely. I use my facts to form my opinions and others use their facts to form their opinions. I happen to think my facts are stronger than "Tesla has always made it work". In life as in the stock market, past performance is not an indicator of future success. It's not about the "next few years", it's about the next decade. By then the seats at the table will all have been taken.
