Tesla battery lifetime doubles!

[mspohr]

Interesting article about a talk by Jeff Dahn.
Apparently they have been able to double the lifetime of Tesla batteries after just one year of his five year contract!
Tesla battery researcher says they doubled lifetime of batteries in Tesla’s products 4 years ahead of time

 

[vrykolas]

The question is WHEN these extended-life batteries started appearing in vehicle battery packs.
We got an X 90D in December 2016, but somehow I doubt we received one of these

 

[mspohr]

It sounds like they are the 2170 format which are going into Powerwalls

 

[kingjamez]

The question is WHEN these extended-life batteries started appearing in vehicle battery packs.
We got an X 90D in December 2016, but somehow I doubt we received one of these

*Or if. That video was recent. Who knows if it's actually made it into production yet. I also suspect that he didn't intend that blurb to be in the non-blacked-out portion of the video.

Also note.. that he's making the assumption that battery life doubled by measuring the columic-efficiency and extrapolating double life. This means that they moved the CE from current gen batteries 1/2 the distance to 1.00000. He admits that they don't know for certain that the battery life will be doubled, only that it's his best guess.

-Jim

 

[wdolson]

The article today has a note in it labeled "Update" that says he clarified during the talk that the new batteries are not in any Tesla product at this time.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The article I read is that this is only applicable to the NMC chemistry Tesla is using on Powerwalls. This is not on the NCA chemistry that the cars use, although they are also working on improvements on that.

 

[Bobfitz1]

*Or if. That video was recent. Who knows if it's actually made it into production yet. I also suspect that he didn't intend that blurb to be in the non-blacked-out portion of the video.

Also note.. that he's making the assumption that battery life doubled by measuring the columic-efficiency and extrapolating double life. This means that they moved the CE from current gen batteries 1/2 the distance to 1.00000. He admits that they don't know for certain that the battery life will be doubled, only that it's his best guess.

-Jim

I watched a good portion of his talk that was pulled off. The advanced diagnostic equipment his group developed was designed to evaluate adjustments to cell chemistry and be very confident of the degree of improvement without testing for 20 or 30 years.
I think Dahl was speaking as scientists often due when "admitting" they don't know something for certain. That doesn't mean they aren't 99.99% sure it will double lifetime. It's likely the small bit of uncertainty is around whether lifetime is doubled or more, or only very close to doubled. Such a difference is too small to change analysis of the impact/benefit of this chemistry advance. Nor does it change the larger insight that being partnered up with Dahl and team is a near guarantee that the performance of Tesla batteries will continue to pull away from that of competitors over the next four years.

 

[kingjamez]

I watched a good portion of his talk that was pulled off. The advanced diagnostic equipment his group developed was designed to evaluate adjustments to cell chemistry and be very confident of the degree of improvement without testing for 20 or 30 years.
I think Dahl was speaking as scientists often due when "admitting" they don't know something for certain. That doesn't mean they aren't 99.99% sure it will double lifetime. It's likely the small bit of uncertainty is around whether lifetime is doubled or more, or only very close to doubled. Such a difference is too small to change analysis of the impact/benefit of this chemistry advance. Nor does it change the larger insight that being partnered up with Dahl and team is a near guarantee that the performance of Tesla batteries will continue to pull away from that of competitors over the next four years.

Wow, it got taken down, glad I watched it first! Hope Dahl didn't get in too much hot water for letting that little tid-bit slip. If he doubled CE, he's earned some grace I think.

Did you notice how uncomfortable Dahl looked during that presentation though? It was really odd. Hard to put a finger on what was bothering him, but he seemed distressed / uneasy and not the kind you'd expect from public speaking.

Yes, I also think that Dahl knows that real-world battery testing is also the only way to truly know how a battery will perform. Until 20 years comes, they won't know if some other factor pops up as dominating the deterioration curve. This has happened before with Lithium cells, where they whip one problem an another pops up unexpectedly.

Also agree that there is no doubt that if Dahl got the CE half way to perfect in the new chemistry, then there is no doubt that the battery is better... much better.

Dahl's methods for cell life prediction are the state of the art right now. Let's hope he's right.

-Jim

 

[jmanning]

If they are even CLOSE to doubling life of the battery we should all be quite happy !!!
Less resources used, more life out of our cars and powerwalls, and we do realize that sometime in the future other technology will come out to make improvement on those batteries in some form or fashion with all the research dedicated to it.......

 

[kingjamez]

If they are even CLOSE to doubling life of the battery we should all be quite happy !!!
Less resources used, more life out of our cars and powerwalls, and we do realize that sometime in the future other technology will come out to make improvement on those batteries in some form or fashion with all the research dedicated to it.......

Yep, the silly argument that many use about the resources required to make batteries negates the resources the batteries saves basically goes out the window when you double cell life.

Battery technology is rapidly advancing. There is no doubt in my mind that we are on the downhill of a total disruption of the energy / transportation market.

-Jim

 

[arnis]

Battery technology is rapidly advancing.

Well, no, it is not. 5-10% is not rapid. Though steady.

 

[kingjamez]

Well, no, it is not. 5-10% is not rapid. Though steady.

I would have said the same 6 months ago. However it's been fairly exciting from the "probably not smoke and mirrors" subset of the new battery breakthroughs coming out lately. I'm a firm believer that we're about to see some major improvements (whether it be battery life or energy density) in real ready-to-buy batteries within the next year or so.

-Jim

 

[Brando]

reminder: No good theories on how batteries actually work. Therefore all is done through trial and error testing. ~ 25 chemicals are being tested on how these elements will impact battery performance - charge rates, power density, degradation curves, cycle rates ... So progress ~7% per year or doubling every decade. See last 30 years to verify.

Of course breakthroughs are seldom planned. Some mistake happens ... and wow.
Solid State being considered for years and how to make graphene still not solved.

Maxwell dry process may be a nice step forward. Less toxic, cheaper (no solvent), fast to make, less space needed at factory - all good things. Now can they make it work on production scale?
Look out China. Model Y production/sales = to all other Tesla vehicles combined??

 

[hill]

Sorry for reactivating a zombie thread, but has this ever been discussed further? / later presumed to be puffery?
.

 

[wdolson]

We do know that Tesla is integrating Maxwell's tech into batteries coming out sometime this year. Tesla has also improved the battery chemistry a few times over the years, but exactly what they did, except with the introduction of the 90 KWH pack is not fully known. They may be using a longer lived chemistry now, but they aren't talking about it.