pilotSteve
Active Member
Quickly! (sorry I'm sarcastic). Whats the big deal: many quick couplings are available for hydraulic, fuel, DC etc. Lets face it, these guys are SMART, and yes they are in fact rocket scientists.
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Tesla battery swap: Post announcement discussion
- Thread starter dsm363
- Start date
Quickly! (sorry I'm sarcastic). Whats the big deal: many quick couplings are available for hydraulic, fuel, DC etc. Lets face it, these guys are SMART, and yes they are in fact rocket scientists.
I'm all for addressing the reasons people aren't buying electric cars, but let's be real. The reason people aren't buying electric cars isn't that it takes longer to charge than to fill a gas tank, it's because it costs 60K dollars. When we have electric cars that are 30K, then Elon can get into the reason people don't buy them if they don't sell.
You don't think it's possible that the most succesful electric car company in history has deep insight into the marketing challenges?
deonb
Active Member
We DO have ones that are 30K. They're called Leafs. And the 60K one sells better...
The 60K market is an easier learning platform. Once EV's dominate the 60K market and learn what needs to be done there, they can apply these life lessons to the 30K market, don't you think?
I'm sure people will call it fuzzy math but I'll throw it out there anyway.
- Open a web browser to Tesla Motors | Premium Electric Vehicles
- Click "MODEL S" at the top
- Click "DESIGN STUDIO" on the second row
- Click "DESIGN" under the left column (non-performance)
- Click "CASH" on the right
- Observe $63,570 (Price with $7,500 Federal Tax Credit)
- Add $7,500 to $63,570, yielding $71,070
- Multiple $71,070 by 43%, yielding $30,560.10
- Subtract $30,560.10 from $63,570, yielding $33,009.90
I know that's not quite what you meant, but I found it an interesting exercise.
Norbert
TSLA will win
The way I think about this is: Tesla will have to invest very large amounts into high-volume manufacturing facilities for Gen III. They will have to pretty much bet the company on its success. So they need to do what they can, in the 4/5 years leading up to Gen III production start, to ensure high volume demand right from the beginning.
dennis
Model S Plaid
There are something like 2000-2500 Model S's delivered in the SF Bay Area by now. Imagine a scenario where some weekend this summer just a few % of the owners decide to take the family to Disneyland in their cool Model S. While you can skip the Gilroy SC, you can't make it from Harris Ranch to Anaheim (230 miles + climbing the Grapevine). So every one of those Model S's will need to stop at both Harris Ranch and Tejon Ranch SC's. It is easy to envision a multi-hour wait. But rather than nightmare headlines, Tesla can counter that Super Swaps will be available at those locations by the end of this year.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Also meaning, at that point [start of Gen III production, see above], they cannot wait anymore for a longer education process to take place, regarding the advantages of "free" vs "fast". Rather, they might get into a situation where they have to reduce the price for "fast".
I don't know how much I will use this service, but I am sure that at some point I will. The amazing thing to me is that tonight at dinner we were talking about my Model X reservation and my extended family started the you can't get very far in an EV argument. After going over range, superchargers and most important to them-90 sec. battery swaps some of those family members are going to look at TESLA.
Rather than build expensive (for Tesla and the consumer) battery swaps, it sounds like the answer is to expand the super charger slots....like they said they were going to do, Elon specifically stating they were going to build them to over capacity exactly for the type of scenario you outlined.
Especially, given in this article (Tesla Shows Off 90-Second Battery Swapping : Discovery News) Elon himself apparently stated he didn't think swaps would have much relevance in 4-5 years with advancements in charging and range.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Tesla just pulled a checkmate on the automotive industry with this demonstration. With a single demo they moved the conversation for EVs from other car manufacturers to be one of "yes, but can I quickly swap out the battery?" It is a mind share thing, and Tesla will be the only one who can win it. Note how quickly Nissan jumped out with a watered down "me too... well, kind of" announcement.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
If pack swapping can be made to work well, I don't see it becoming irrelevant. At least once electric cars are a significant percentage of all cars sold, you'll want either fast-charging, or pack swapping, also in cities and other areas where it will be difficult to reserve hundreds of parking spots for fast charging.
An increase in battery capacity, combined with pack swapping, also makes electric cars a more practical option for those who have to street-park one of their cars (even if in the distant future larger quantities of curb-side charging will be provided by cities). That is, future advancements also work in favor of pack swapping.
It is often good to have multiple ways available, of doing something, and this seems to apply here as well.
It seems to me much of the current hesitation about pack swapping comes simply from the observation that currently new SuperChargers locations are being added at a much slower pace than expected (in spite of the planned increase in growth), and adding Superchargers is simpler (as long as existing parking spots can be used).
+1. Why build hugely expensive swapping stations for at most a small number of Tesla owners when these are going to be obsolete in a few years? Maybe the plan is only to build a few of these for show rather than take a sizeable chunk of funds that could otherwise be spent on R&D or (gasp) building out the SC network as they have promised in a very public way and 60 owners have paid for the right to use?
I agree with others who have said that the future of the company is really Gen III and the ability to sell an EV to the mass market -- one with performance and range (sorry, the Leaf has neither). However Tesla can do that fastest ahead of the competition, I'm in favor of. If this marketing stunt can actually sell tens of thousands more Model S in the next couple of years, then I don't mind building a couple of them for show. But please don't spend $100 million to do this. I suppose we'll see how the test goes in California and whether there is any return on the sizeable investment to justify building these out across the country.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Hmmm .... not really. Don't go by first 2 month, Leaf will sell more in the US and the world this year.
Really? Where did I say they should stop developing the Model X or developing Gen III?? Why not just stop spending all money on development on those projects just for this marketing stunt and spend hundreds of millions building out these swapping stations across the country (and who knows how much on labor in servicing and maintaining these)?
Fine, let them build a couple in California where they will go largely unused just so they can have a splash in a couple of publications so non-Tesla owners (and a few Tesla owners) can say "cool". If they can use this to sell tens of thousands of additional Model S and get to Gen III (and yes, build out the SC network which has been promised, highly publicized, and the basis for securing additional revenue from 60 owners and of course built into the price of 85s), then ok, build a few of these.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Yes, something has happened. And only few realize the significance, so far. But that's ok...
People don't buy the Leaf in droves because of its weak performance and lack of range. Now Gen III at the same price, that figures to be something completely different.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
This has nothing to do with the comment I was addressing. It is also naïve to assume there would be no changes in Leaf by the time Gen 3 comes along.
Where did I say anything about what the Leaf may or may not be able to do in 3 or 4 years (although boy, Nissan has a lot of work to do and who's working on the styling)?? All's I said is why more people don't buy the Leaf now, and that is obvious. I have a recently former colleague who has been clawing by with the Leaf and dependent on the Level II Blink charger in the parking lot just to get to and from work (total one way distance is 50 miles). She just changed jobs and now her commute is 60+ miles one way? Guess what? She's selling her Leaf (and hopefully leasing or buying a 60). I have another friend who had been driving a Leaf for the past few years until buying an S. They got rid of the Leaf.
My point which you missed is that it is a race to get Gen III to market. If Tesla is late and someone else can deliver a car with the same range, performance and style, and at a price in the $30-40K range, that car will win the race. As someone who likes to see more jobs here in California and the USA, I'm hoping Tesla wins or at least stays in the hunt. But if Tesla loses the race because it wasted money on marketing that didn't create meaningful returns, I will be disappointed.
Norbert
TSLA will win
So if Tesla says they start with SF-LA (and possibly DC-Boston), and then proceed based on demand, does that satisfy your concern? Are you arguing with Tesla's announcement, or with a perceived possibility that they might implement a complete network no matter what? (I'm not aware of anyone arguing the latter, although I expect that there will be enough demand at least following Gen III introduction, even though "when" might depend on the price.)
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