Tesla battery swap: Post announcement discussion

[renim]

I can't believe Elon Musk would even accept it being as costly as the average fill-up.

I would speculate its intentional, very intentional
After all, why can't Tesla buyers have the option to pay unpredictable, geo-political/weather derived gas equivalent prices for their miles, everybody else does.
Its a message, that takes time to sink in. The 2 options are side by side.

However having only swap stations would be awful for anyone frugal. All of the times that you stop and only need a partial charge - and there are many - you would not want to swap.

The cynic would say that having a performance model S is also awful for anyone frugal. And its possible that swapping saves more time than the extra horses of a performance model S, yet no one decries the existence of a performance model S, even if they wouldn't buy it themselves.

 

[Aphysician]

Need for Battery Swap and Usage Patterns

First of all thanks to all the members who have shared their valuable opinion on this topic. This thread is an interesting one and an excellent example of power of collaboration. Members have discussed various scenarios and applications of battery swap. I read the entire thread at one go, however it took me 2 hours, but never felt bored.

I feel it is absolutely essential for Tesla to develop this technology. (1) The battery tech is going to be of roughly similar architecture for next 2-3 years and Tesla will be selling a lot of Model S and Model X during this times. These two factors are going to result in increased traffic at current SC station. (2) Tesla has finalized many SC location, mainly at locations where you can spend 30 minutes. It is not possible to expand those SCs or relocate them entirely after spending money there, offering battery swap could lead to ease of congestion at that location. Sure, Tesla will plan future stations with capacity for SC expansion and swap center addition. (3) Gen III will not be out for another 3-4 years and Tesla need to keep generating/converting buyers till that time, so it is important to address range anxiety by multiple approaches. This is not about early adopters, but for general public and naysayers. (4) Even after high range battery is available, these centers will be useful to get that long range battery only when you travel long distances. I plan to keep my battery, as it suits my daily commute and have no intention of spending few more grand on new battery. (5) Having swap stations open up an exciting new business of leasing batteries. Tesla can lease higher range batteries to maybe 40kWH/60kWH or other licensed products. Due to these reasons I feel battery swap is here to stay and gain popularity.

As far as the location for swap center, having these at SCs is the best logical and financial situation for Tesla as explained by others before. This arrangement has the best return for their investment too. Just consider which swap station would you visit, one stand-alone or one which has free supercharger with it. However on arriving there you find long line at the SC, you decide to go for swap. However, that does not rule out possibility of a temporary seasonal mobile swap locations in remote locations.

We all know Tesla has a good marketing department, and has a way to fuzzy up numbers. For me true cost of swapping is $ 120 (15 gallons X 4 $ X 2 swaps, potential for increase with a statement that it will be similar to gas costs). Once you make a swap in your trip, you have to swap it with your pack in return journey, even in case you have little more time on return journey. If not returned then it remains to be seen what will Tesla charge for returning your pack. It will be 60$ plus transport fees. This was very clever, Tesla.

I am still not sure how exactly it will be implemented for 60 kWh owners. Will all the pack be 85 kWh and 60 owners will pay premium to use it, or they will get software limited pack? From discussion it seems that they will all be 85 kWh packs, as 60 owners will need to return it to avoid charge. I think they should keep 60 kWh batteries too, to avoid the agony of returning the pack always for 60 owners.

The first thing that comes to mind after the swap announcement is, how it is different from SCs and whether there is need for it. SC access cost for 60 kWh owner is 2000-2500 $, for that kind of money you can make 16-20 trips (2 swaps per trip). This should be enough for most, but if you do more swaps in one long trip then you will spend that money very quickly. Every 60 kWh owner will need to ask that question individually. Considering the cost of swap I feel, SC access is a better option to go for 60 kWh owners. It feels that 60 kWh will be paying premium again to use swaps, after taking all comments in account. I now strongly feel that 80 kWh is the best bang for the buck.

This announcement also eliminates the need for HPWC, you almost certainly don't need it in your daily travel. If you want to charge quickly, then go to a SC or get your pack swapped. People were buying twin charger only in less than 50% of cases, We will need to see whether anyone goes for twin chargers now.

I have started a poll to understand how owners will use battery swaps. Please click the link below to vote.
Fast Vs Free Poll - A poll to understand usage patterns for SCs and Battery swaps

 

[Mitthrawnuruodo]

Good synopsis APhysician - I forgot to add that Musk mentioned a bottleneck on superchargers on Friday and Sundays in the shareholder Q&A. This will certainly remain a problem as more cars are sold. A battery swap option will help with that issue while generating revenue.

Every 60 kWh owner will need to ask that question individually. Considering the cost of swap I feel, SC access is a better option to go for 60 kWh owners. It feels that 60 kWh will be paying premium again to use swaps, after taking all comments in account. I now strongly feel that 80 kWh is the best bang for the buck.

This announcement also eliminates the need for HPWC, you almost certainly don't need it in your daily travel. If you want to charge quickly, then go to a SC or get your pack swapped. People were buying twin charger only in less than 50% of cases, We will need to see whether anyone goes for twin chargers now.

I also agree that the swapping ability may affect consumers decision in buying SC capability on the 60kwh, twin chargers, and home charging. Musk also mentioned optionality at one point and this certainly is delivering it to the consumer. Like I said before, the reasons consumers won't buy a Tesla are becoming less and less.

 

[renim]

You actually only save 1/2 the cost of a SuperCharger since the Solar requirement remains the same.

But you do have a valid overarching point there. There is a point where instead of having additional Chargers at a location, it will be cheaper putting in a Battery Swapper. And I think your numbers are close to the breakeven point.

* 20 chargers + 80 bay solar canopy (so > 3 times an avg. SuperCharger size)
vs.
* 10 chargers + a swapper + 80 bay solar canopy

I bet the above will be in the same ($1m to $1.5) ballpark. It doesn't free up any additional money to build more of them, but it at least breaks even.

Actually, the solar requirement is somewhat trivial, how much do you think solarcity is charging Tesla per car re-fill? The addition of PackSwap is only secondarily adding more 24 hr capacity, it primarily about adding more peak capacity.

Its similar to electricity generation capacity, the amount of power plants is determined by the busiest hour/etc/minute of the year, but the amount of fuel is merely due to the annual fuel use.

 

[woof]

A few random thoughts on swapping:

Can a swapping station be built into a shipping container? (See various articles "pre-cloud" about Sun [and later Microsoft] creating portable Data Centers in a standard shipping container form factor). If so then no digging is required. All Tesla need to is buy/rent a standard truck stall at the SC locations (or anywhere else), drop off the container, hook up power, and start swapping. Advantages are ease of installation, weather proof location, ease of relocation. A swapping station can be located wherever a standard container can fit (and that's a lot of locations along a highway...even along the shoulder of a highway or access road or weigh station)

How will the ravages of weather (mud/snow on the bottom of the car, corrosion, etc.) affect the swapping operation? Precision in a factory clean environment is not the same as out in the weather.

During a conversation I had with George B. back at the Natick Mall opening, when SuperCharging had just been announced, I brought up my reservations as to how SC could always be free. I felt that as more cars started using it, Tesla would have to limit demand somehow (via a fee, I assumed), else there would be very long lines and the actual utility of SC would be diminished for all. He assured me that Tesla would just add more bays as needed, to keep the lines manageable. Now, with the wrinkle of swapping added, I still have my doubts about free SC forever being useful. If the choice is "fast vs free", and if Tesla makes a decent profit on "fast", it would make business sense to keep the number of SC bays limited, in order to maximize swapping usage. Please note I'm not implying Tesla would actually do this, I'm just pointing out I always saw the SC "free" aspect as not viable in the long run, and paid swapping makes it even less so.

 

[jerry33]

If the choice is "fast vs free", and if Tesla makes a decent profit on "fast", it would make business sense to keep the number of SC bays limited, in order to maximize swapping usage. Please note I'm not implying Tesla would actually do this, I'm just pointing out I always saw the SC "free" aspect as not viable in the long run, and paid swapping makes it even less so.

Assuming Tesla's business plan of "solar power pays for SC" is implemented, I don't see why it would not be viable in the long run. The problem with swapping is that it's very, very expensive--minimum $160 each time (because you have to return the pack you borrowed). That's like five fills in a Prius (3,000 miles) or about 5,000 miles charging at home (in Texas).

You have to convince people to pay for the swapping--I don't think that's possible except in an emergency, on a very busy day when the SCs are backed up, or for those who have money to burn.

Now I certainly could be wrong and there are a ton of folks out there just waiting to pay for swapping, but it sure doesn't make sense to me unless there was no other choice.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Interesting that Elon said the margins of the swap station can be more than 60%.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/21/autos/tesla-battery-swap/index.html

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Assuming Tesla's business plan of "solar power pays for SC" is implemented, I don't see why it would not be viable in the long run. The problem with swapping is that it's very, very expensive--minimum $160 each time (because you have to return the pack you borrowed).

I don't believe there is a hard price. The minimum price mentioned was $50, but the actual price will be indexed to the local price of 15 gallons of gas. Also even though you have to pay for the swap during the return, the pack will be fully charged when you get it. Given the 12 gallon tank on the Prius, the equivalence per fill-up is about 1.25x, although the Prius goes further per fill up.

 

[Norbert]

To me, this seems like a swap would only be useful in an emergency situation.

If you consider a 400 mile highway trip an "emergency"...

 

[DaveT]

Interesting that Elon said the margins of the swap station can be more than 60%.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/21/autos/tesla-battery-swap/index.html .

The article seems to be quoting Trip Chowdhry and not Elon regarding the 60% margin on swap stations.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The article seems to be quoting Trip Chowdhry and not Elon regarding the 60% margin on swap stations.

You are right. It would be a big deal if Elon said it, but not much if it's an analyst.

 

[Norbert]

Interesting that Elon said the margins of the swap station can be more than 60%.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/21/autos/tesla-battery-swap/index.html

That article has a few quotes by Elon and Tesla with slightly more info about the financial aspects, than I read before. (EDIT: Wrote this before reading the above message)

I don't believe there is a hard price. The minimum price mentioned was $50, but the actual price will be indexed to the local price of 15 gallons of gas. Also even though you have to pay for the swap during the return, the pack will be fully charged when you get it. Given the 12 gallon tank on the Prius, the equivalence per fill-up is about 1.25x, although the Prius goes further per fill up.

I think $50 would be a better price, or even a bit less. Given the generally increasing mpg of cars, it should be based on 12 gallons at most, IMO. Even then, most will still prefer SuperChargers. However when time is important, the "free" shouldn't turn into "my wallet gets sucked empty", even if that is what happens in the ICE world all the time.

Many gas stations seem to cost around $1 million, and still make profit. I'd think Tesla should still be able to make profit with a price which at the end of the day compares well to the actual cost of a gasoline trip with an average mpg car. Of course that depends on getting enough demand throughout the week, but that, in turn, will depend on the price, I'd think.

However the current number of Model S on the road will perhaps not yet result in sufficient demand, especially since many current owners became familiar with EVs in a time when the discussion was about 6 kW Level 2 charging vs. fast charging, and some argued that even 50 kW (less expensive) fast chargers would remain too unused to be worthwhile. Many early adopters bought an EV being prepared to rely mostly on home charging.

 

[Doug_G]

Nice article in Ars Technica: Long trip? Tesla Motors will swap your Model S battery while you wait | Ars Technica

 

[malcolm]

How will the ravages of weather (mud/snow on the bottom of the car, corrosion, etc.) affect the swapping operation? Precision in a factory clean environment is not the same as out in the weather.

Excellent point. I hope Tesla do plenty of field tests with grubby cars. I wonder if the swap lanes will need some sort of underbody spray system although IIRC only the jack points lie immediately behind the front wheels. The release bolts are in a more central location so hopefully these will remain relatively clean.

Also some locations may be prone to flooding. The insurance on 50 packs and a swap mechanism could be expensive.

 

[jerry33]

I don't believe there is a hard price. The minimum price mentioned was $50, but the actual price will be indexed to the local price of 15 gallons of gas. Also even though you have to pay for the swap during the return, the pack will be fully charged when you get it. Given the 12 gallon tank on the Prius, the equivalence per fill-up is about 1.25x, although the Prius goes further per fill up.

$60 to $80 is what I read, so I used $80. The Prius' average fill is 9 gallons and unless it's cold I typically get 600-650 miles.

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If you consider a 400 mile highway trip an "emergency"...

You really ought to stop for 20-30 minutes during a 400 mile trip.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

$60 to $80 is what I read, so I used $80. The Prius' average fill is 9 gallons and unless it's cold I typically get 600-650 miles.
.

Right, when it comes to Gen 3, which is where volume would really become significant, the competition isn't a 25mpg car, it's Volt, Prius, other hybrids and diesels. If Tesla's going after the BMW 3 series, they need to understand that the Volt is already grabbing some of them. So, highway tripping, think 40mpg at least. If a swap gives you 250 miles, then at worst you're displacing 6 1/4 gallons of premium. Right now where I live that's $23.75.

I sincerely hope that the numbers I'm seeing people quote didn't come from anyone at Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

Excellent point. I hope Tesla do plenty of field tests with grubby cars. I wonder if the swap lanes will need some sort of underbody spray system although IIRC only the jack points lie immediately behind the front wheels. The release bolts are in a more central location so hopefully these will remain relatively clean.

Driving over a high pressure water spray could be a solution, or air jets, or both.

 

[deonb]

I'm curious how many of those posting on this thread have experience using a Supercharger, rather than just reading what Tesla has said about them. Here are a few facts from my experience with 90kw Supercharging on I5, where the traffic flows at 75-80 mph (reduce times by 33% to reflect 120kw Superchargers):

1. With an average of 20 miles of rated range left (safety margin), it takes 40-45 minutes to get 160 miles of additional rated range, which will get you to the next supercharger 115 miles away travelling at 75mph. Drive time is 1:40, charge time is :45 30 for 120kw supercharger).

One of the other advantages of the 120kW SuperChargers that were announced is that it doesn't taper off that quickly at the top. It's not just 33% faster, but will actually charge at high speed for a longer part of the range.

So if you go from 50 miles of charge to 200 miles of charge on a 120kW charger, it should take around 23.5 minutes. (The math isn't quite linear, but I've compensated for that.)

 

[Norbert]

You really ought to stop for 20-30 minutes during a 400 mile trip.

20 minutes is not enough (neither for me personally, nor for supercharging for a common speed of 70+ mph on I-5, for example).

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So if you go from 50 miles of charge to 200 miles of charge on a 120kW charger, it should take around 23.5 minutes. (The math isn't quite linear, but I've compensated for that.)

Talking about 70+ mph, it would be about 30 min even if it was 120 kW all the time.

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Right, when it comes to Gen 3, which is where volume would really become significant, the competition isn't a 25mpg car, it's Volt, Prius, other hybrids and diesels. If Tesla's going after the BMW 3 series, they need to understand that the Volt is already grabbing some of them.

Volt: I don't think so. Model S is already selling about as much as the Volt. But perhaps the other way around: Gen III is competition for the Volt, even more so with swapping, since that bites into the advantage which the Volt has.

Prius: Gen III will be much sportier and "cooler" than the Prius, I don't think they will do each other harm for some time.

Other hybrids and diesels: depends.

BMW 3 series: yes, that's competition (from Tesla's point of view, that is, it will take a while before it makes a real difference to BMW, I'd think).

 

[deonb]

Talking about 70+ mph, it would be about 30 min even if it was 120 kW all the time.

Sigh. Ok, I thought "miles of charge" was obvious that it means the display output, but I can rephrase that:

So if you go from 50 "display on console while set to standard that you may or may not be getting depending on actual driving style" to 200 "display on console while set to standard that you may or may not be getting depending on actual driving style" on a 120kW charger, it should take around 23.5 minutes. (The math isn't quite linear, but I've compensated for that.)

There... it's all better now.

 

[dennis]

One of the other advantages of the 120kW SuperChargers that were announced is that it doesn't taper off that quickly at the top. It's not just 33% faster, but will actually charge at high speed for a longer part of the range.

I wasn't aware of that. The downside is that the Model S in the adjacent bay gets very little charging for a longer percentage of the time that they are sharing the 120kW.