tesla blue star

[TEG]

Personally I would want RWD and 0-60 < 6s, but think they need to do whatever they can to make it cost competitive with cars like the LEAF.
For whatever reason (Battery longevity? Insurance rates?) Nissan opted to make the LEAF a modest performance vehicle (only slightly better than a Prius). You know they could have made a motor with more performance if they really thought it made sense. I gather that the mainstream "mass buyer" isn't shopping for high performance.

 

[ElSupreme]

Personally I would want RWD and 0-60 < 6s, but think they need to do whatever they can to make it cost competitive with cars like the LEAF.
For whatever reason (Battery longevity? Insurance rates?) Nissan opted to make the LEAF a modest performance vehicle (only slightly better than a Prius). You know they could have made a motor with more performance if they really thought it made sense. I gather that the mainstream "mass buyer" isn't shopping for high performance.

I bought a VW GTI. It is just a Golf but quicker and much better suspension (if you like tight suspensions). I paid ~$8k more for it. And when electric cars start becoming more prevelant people will expect and not be offput about paying more for extra range.

I bet the bluestar could be ~$10k-$15k more than a leaf if it was Bimmer 3 fast, and had 100+ miles of real range. I personally travel about 75-80 miles to and from work, maybe stopping at the grocery store on the way home. So I see 100 real world miles with AC as a sweet spot. Like the 40kWh should do for more than 5 years easily.

EDIT: I also think that people will start realizing they are prepaying for about 5 years of fuel when they buy an electric car. I will save over $3000 a year in car energy costs when I get my S. That is $15,000 off the sticker after my payments go away. A $40,000 EV is about the same as buying a nicer Ford Focus over a 5 year period.

 

[WarpedOne]

I bet the bluestar could be ~$10k-$15k more than a leaf if it was Bimmer 3 fast,

This is Model S already.

 

[dsm363]

I think the Blue Star can start at $40,000 and cross into Model S territory a little. A minimally optioned Model S (with tech package) is over $60,000 and goes way up from there. I must have enough of a range difference and luxury difference to justify the price over the Leaf though.

 

[vfx]

BMW Sedans run from $34K to $ 68K
Edmunds

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328i

• 2.0L 4-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 23 cty/34 hwy mpg
• Bluetooth
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $34,900
PRICE WITH OPTIONS​

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335i

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 20 cty/30 hwy mpg
• Bluetooth
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)

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MSRP from $42,400
PRICE WITH OPTIONS​

Available Wagon Models
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328i

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 17 cty/26 hwy mpg
• MP3 Player
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $37,500
PRICE WITH OPTIONS3 vehicles available
​

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328i xDrive

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 17 cty/25 hwy mpg
• All-wheel drive
• MP3 Player
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $39,500
PRICE WITH OPTIONS1 vehicle available
​

Available Coupe Models
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328i

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 18 cty/28 hwy mpg
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $38,700
PRICE WITH OPTIONS182 vehicles available
​

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328i xDrive

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 17 cty/25 hwy mpg
• All-wheel drive
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $40,400
PRICE WITH OPTIONS4 vehicles available
​

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335i

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 19 cty/28 hwy mpg
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $45,100
PRICE WITH OPTIONS56 vehicles available
​

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335i xDrive

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 19 cty/26 hwy mpg
• All-wheel drive
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $46,800
PRICE WITH OPTIONS​

View photos​

335is

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 18 cty/26 hwy mpg
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $52,100
PRICE WITH OPTIONS22 vehicles available
​

Available Convertible Models
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328i

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 17 cty/26 hwy mpg
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $47,600
PRICE WITH OPTIONS149 vehicles available
​

View photos​

335i

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 19 cty/28 hwy mpg
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $53,800
PRICE WITH OPTIONS37 vehicles available
​

View photos​

335is

• 3.0L 6-cyl. engine
• Manual transmission
• Up to 18 cty/26 hwy mpg
• iPod input
• Side/Curtain Airbags
• Stability Control
• Traction Control
• Navigation System (Optional)
• Bluetooth (Optional)

View All Features & Specs

MSRP from $60,800
PRICE WITH OPTIONS10 vehicles available
​

Published: 11/15/2011

 

[ElSupreme]

This is Model S already.

Not really. The Model S is stupid big. I would buy a smaller car if I could. Bimmer 3 sized! I really don't like driving large cars. It is fun to fit into small spaces!

I really think a $45k-$50k sticker BEFORE the tax credit could really be sold along side a $30k ICE. I don't see Tesla making it to Civic territory for another 5-7 years. I find it very hard to believe Tesla can cut some of the features they seem to really like. Margins start to get razor thin. They will get there just might take a generation or more than everyone thinks.

The good thing is as their production volume goes up, their displays and parts cost will start to go way down. And software development costs will probably be completely recouped. Plus it seems like battery cost is still just a bit out of range of a $30k car. I really don't think Tesla will drop usable range below 100 miles (30-35kWh minimum on a small light car). They want to build cars, not electric cars.

 

[EVNow]

I think the Blue Star can start at $40,000 and cross into Model S territory a little. A minimally optioned Model S (with tech package) is over $60,000 and goes way up from there. I must have enough of a range difference and luxury difference to justify the price over the Leaf though.

It's not a question of justifying $40k. What volume is Tesla aiming for - and should the price be to achieve those volumes ?

 

[Norbert]

My impression would be that acceleration around 6 sec 0-60 (with a corresponding battery pack size) is relatively easy to achieve with Tesla's tech, and is a great selling point. And it is a hallmark of Tesla to have really good acceleration. Regarding setting expectations, they shouldn't be too high, but also not too low...

 

[Grendal]

Tesla is a Luxury brand. I don't see a problem with $39,900, so $32,400 for a base model Bluestar. Elon stands by his $30K statement and you're at the low end of the luxury market. Going after the Leaf is ridiculous, let Nissan have that end of the market. Tesla should be more upscale and stand out as the company that gives people a quality car with range they would be willing to pay for. An 8 second 0-60 mph seems reasonable with a performance version of under 6 seconds. That's if Elon shoots for that sort of price point. It's possible he does the Bluestar for $47,400 which makes $39,900 after tax break. If so, expect a Model S level car just smaller.

Model M? For mass market car...

 

[TEG]

Sorry - I don't think $47K+ base price would qualify as "mass market".
Also, we don't know if the Fed $7,500 will still be offered then.

 

[Norbert]

They'll try to achieve $30k-$35k (after tax) , but only if they can build a good product for that price, and for Tesla "good" includes "quick". Being cost-competitive with the Leaf is not a primary goal. Achieving a volume of 200,000 per year is, but I expect they will make a slower entry if battery tech doesn't allow a low enough price for a product worth the name Tesla. Achieving quick acceleration easily is a major advantage of electric cars, so it would take a lot for them to sacrifice this competitive advantage. And the competition is gasoline cars, not the Leaf.

 

[WarpedOne]

BMW Sedans run from $34K to $ 68K ... Edmunds

Ok, we come from a bit different environments. Here in Europe (Slovenia) starting BMW series 3 is a 316i Touring for about 30k EUR (~40k USD). It has a 1.6 litre petrol engine with 90 kW. Acceleration 0-60 is 11.1 seconds. This is what a low-end series 3 means around here
After 316 there are 318i's and 318d's, 320i's and 320d's, 325i's and 325d's and only after those there come 328's and 335's. For abut €50k or $65k. These two are considered a high luxury sport cars around here. Not a mass market vehicles, not by far.
So, a starting $40k BMW around here has 11s 0-60 time. Now you can understand why 8s time seems very good to me

Tesla can choose to be a luxury or a mass market brand, it can't really be both. On the other hand real mass market models sell in 100s thousands, Tesla won't have production capabilities in this league for quite some time in the future so it doesn't make much sense for them to try to compete on price basis with such mass models.
$20k - $30k price target is hence out of the question. They don''t have production volume to make profits at such low price point. I feel we can safely assume BlueStar starting price around or a bit under $40k in USA and around €40k in Europe. This is not mass market but still considerably more accessible than S or X.

After that Tesla needs another factory. Or two.

 

[Robert.Boston]

$20k - $30k price target is hence out of the question. They don''t have production volume to make profits at such low price point. I feel we can safely assume BlueStar starting price around or a bit under $40k in USA and around €40k in Europe. This is not mass market but still considerably more accessible than S or X.

After that Tesla needs another factory. Or two.

I agree with your analysis. Elon explicitly said in the "30-40k" range for GenIII, so I expect to see a base model in the mid-upper end of that range. Like BMW, we'll be able to option it up with AWD etc. into the $80k range.

Tesla will need to have eye-popping volumes before it outgrows the old NUMMI plant. That plant was running at 6,000 vehicles per week in its heyday. While I hope Tesla hits that level, it doesn't seem likely that it will do so soon.

 

[WarpedOne]

That plant was running at 6,000 vehicles per week in its heyday.

Hmmm, that is 300k units per year. Ok, that enables them for one Real Mass Market model in $25k class.
Thanks for the info

Interview:

According to Musk, the Model S “will have vastly more interior and cargo space than the Fisker Karma, and it’s 20 to 30 percent lighter. It’s five-star crash-rated in every category, and it will be the safest car in the world.” Current plans are to produce 20,000 cars a year, but Musk says that’s based on only one shift at the former GM/Toyota factory in Fremont, California it bought for peanuts last year. “We could certainly double our rate of production pretty quickly,” Musk said. “We could go to two shifts with very little added expenditure.”

Tesla’s ultimate goal is to produce a half million cars a year. How long will it take? “Six years,” says Musk. “Seven at the very latest. We plan to use the whole factory.” That plant is five million square feet, and Tesla is using only a small corner of it to build the Model S. So Elon Musk can’t be said to lack confidence.

 

[brianman]

Tesla can choose to be a luxury or a mass market brand, it can't really be both.

I don't agree with this conclusion. On a per model basis, that might be true but not per brand.

That said, in the near term I agree they can't afford the thin profits of non-premium vehicles.

 

[meepz11]

I am predicting a $30k car. Apart from seeing many reports/interviews where the $30k number was focused on (though I don't have it in me to dig them up now), I think that if they want to reach the 200,000 unit target they are going to have to do better then $10k less than the base Model S. I am sure they know that. Furthermore, I think that Tesla's decision to move straight to the blue star is in response to competition arriving on the scene. They know if they don't release something in a few years, someone else will come out with the first truly acceptable (in terms of range/charge time, etc) electric mass-market car. Tesla wants to be there first.

I expect that Tesla will significantly cut in to their expected margins (and quite likely intelligently in to their 'premium' brand without sacrificing true quality) to achieve this a, it will after all be the car that not only cements the electric car revolution, but also the car that puts Tesla in the pole position (in terms of technology and increasingly brand awareness) in the new era of automotive. I expect them to deliver something with significant range, speed, design and otherwise a conservative package. Should be interesting to see what they can come up with, but I strongly bet on a starting $30k price tag.

 

[meepz11]

Just to quickly add. As with the Model X (and given the situation with the SuperCharger) I expect no 40kWh model. I think that a 60kWh model will be available at the $30k price (after the tax credit), with a range of 240-250 miles (given the smaller size). Seems like a lot to deliver, but I think this has to be their primary aim, and they are smart enough and capable enough to do this. All else will be secondary. 200,000 units a year is no small number.

 

[brianman]

many reports/interviews where the $30k number was focused on (though I don't have it in me to dig them up now)

Wikipedia has some interview links:
Tesla BlueStar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It's also in the "Tesla Motors Company Overview, Summer 2011" (TSLA_Investor_Presentation.pdf). I have the URL favorite'd but it's failing to load. Fortunately, I saved a copy locally.

Page 4:

Tesla Gen III - Smaller vehicle platform; pricing starting at $30K*
* Estimated dates, volume & pricing (net of US tax credit of $7,500 ...

Note, however, that the presentation has dated (read: currently incorrect) information on Model X on page 17:

Three range options, similar to Model S

 

[meepz11]

Wikipedia has some interview links:
Tesla BlueStar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It's also in the "Tesla Motors Company Overview, Summer 2011" (TSLA_Investor_Presentation.pdf). I have the URL favorite'd but it's failing to load. Fortunately, I saved a copy locally.

Page 4:


Note, however, that the presentation has dated (read: currently incorrect) information on Model X on page 17:

Interesting thanks. I think that Tesla Motors Company Overview is actually the one thing that was kind of sticking in my head. I read that, and I noted it. Interesting though that it wasn't accurate with the X. That said though, I still stand by what I said. The whole wiki actually has $30k mentioned all over it. Thanks for finding that.

 

[vfx]

...

Tesla can choose to be a luxury or a mass market brand, it can't really be both.....

I also disagree. It's possible that the uniqueness of an electric drive-train and being a silicon valley "Think Different" type of company will separate Tesla enough from traditional manufactures to do whatever they want.

They can build luxur while offfering a stripped down delivery vehicle. Something like a base Bluestar would be a low end perfect government car (a Coda killer).

Mercedes has many lines in EU with garbage trucks and other utility vehicles. Here in the US they have traditionally marketed as a luxury brand but recently has been quietly seeling the Sprinter tall van http://www.mbsprinterusa.com/ Tesla has a USP in E drive and it can crossover with function being the key seller, not luxury.

Lastly it has been suggested in another thread that Tesla do a Acura/Honda Infiniti/Nissan low end brand. I suggested it be called Nikola though Elon will probably call in Dragon Falcon or Eco X.