tesla blue star

[EVnut]

I think that iMiEV will be a fantastic car - for its intended purpose. I've said it before, and I agree with Evan - the ideal follow-on car to the S Sedan is a Prius-class vehicle. Maximized interior space, minimized exterior. Good for a standard US family with gear. The iMiEV is too small for this job, the Prius if perfect.

If Tesla jumps for a large car like the S, to a Micro car like the iMiEV, I think the masses are being missed completely. We need something in the MIDDLE of the spectrum. We already have two cars at the extreme ends.

 

[sergeklapwijk]

IMO the Clubman is a very good type of car to pursue. Of course, without the door arrangement used on that car, horrid. Allowing 4 adults, maybe +2 kids. With back seats folded down allowing the same kind of space as a Model S (with his seats up). With the Blue Star's seats up, making a 4 adult + baggage journey comfortably possible (count in, you also have cargo space under the bonnet so it can be smaller than a comparable ICE-powered car) . An agile swifty Clubman-ish would be the perfect deal for me. Just for god's sake, make normal, actually practical doors all 'round, not like expect anything else from Tesla :wink:.

 

[AnOutsider]

This Article states that Bluestar may forego Aluminum for pressed steel:

The Fremont, California, plant has oceans of assembly space available for that vehicle and others, which might forego the aluminum construction of the Model S--at least in parts--for less-expensive pressed steel.

 

[vfx]

Here's what I got on the third-gen Tesla.

Size of a BMW 3 series. The Jetta was also mentioned.

An EU letter classification of C
In the US it is a Compact car or in the EU a Small Family Car

This info came from to top execs separately.

 

[TEG]

Hopefully they will take a used Leaf as a trade-in!

 

[vfx]

A battery guy said he saw no reason that further down the line by the time they get to the third gen that it should have a similar battery choice to today's Model S.

Where do I put down a deposit?

 

[VolkerP]

buy TSLA

 

[Kevin Harney]

If Telsa can make something similar to my 3 series Convertible I am in all the way !!

 

[Nik]

Here's what I got on the third-gen Tesla.

Size of a BMW 3 series. The Jetta was also mentioned.

An EU letter classification of C
In the US it is a Compact car or in the EU a Small Family Car

This info came from to top execs separately.

Excellent. If it can have the same luggage volume/size ration as the Model S it will carry as much as the next size up, 5-series or VW Passat - given the imperative to avoid roofboxes and so forth, luggage capacity was a concern with some of the smaller designs people were talking about.

Styling-wise, the current Mazda 6 is perhaps a good early comparator:

 

[VolkerP]

I want the third gen sooner than later.

We all want Tesla to enter the volume market ASAP. Costs they face are
- pay back the $465m govt loan
- develop Model X ($100m was cited, does this include the production lines in the Fremont factory? Let's assume yes)
- develop two additional cars based on the skateboard platform (another $200m)
- develop bluestar platform ($400m)
TOTAL $1,165m

spare cash $660m

planned vehicle sales from 2013
- 20k Model S single shift
- 15k Model X
- another 15k for the other (niche?) models
we arrive at 50k luxury class cars per year. with MSRP $70k, 10% gross margin, earnings would be $350m per year.

Thus, 2 years selling the skateboard platform will earn Tesla enough to have bluestar ready for production.
They better start that in 2012, because it will take 3 years and it should arrive in 2015, right?

 

[stevebalmmer]

bluestar,
what Range will he get fine?more than 500 kilometers?
Which battery will he have?
Unfortunately, it will not be a lithium air battery probably.

 

[WhiteKnight]

This Article states that Bluestar may forego Aluminum for pressed steel:

It's interesting to think how Tesla will slash $20,000 off the sticker price of Whitestar to make the Bluestar (targeting the entry-level luxury market - BMW 3-series as the benchmark).

The batteries are such a huge proportion of the cost of the car that you cannot really make any headway without slashing the battery size. A BMW 3-series weighs 700 pounds less than a BMW 5-series. So Tesla probably needs to chop 700 pounds in weight. Chopping that weight, in and of itself, probably does not save you that much money (how much does 700# of aluminum cost?). But the real savings would be a smaller amount of energy needed to move the car (possibly a smaller motor) and a smaller battery pack since you can get more mileage with less energy.

Given the current investment in aluminum producing infrastructure (and the expertise they are developing) I would think they stick with aluminum for the weight factor (and resulting battery size).

Bluestar probably is narrower, has less of a frunk and less of a trunk and a slightly smaller back seat. Probably remains a hatchback for the aerodynamics. Has fewer bells and whistles.

The best scenario is that battery costs come down so substantially that most of the $20K gap is covered by that. The 160 mile pack costs somewhere between $16,000 and $24,000 to make. If prices drop by 25-35% that right there would mean a $4,000 - $8,000 chop in prices. If they can chop 560 pounds off the car (20%) then that chops 240 pounds off the battery (20%) and shaves another $4,000 or so off the price. Now you're within striking distance and maintain most of bells & whistles & creature comforts inside the cabin from the Model S.

By the way, if battery prices drop, then the Model S can be upgraded with an even nicer interior and even more bells & whistles standard.

 

[AnOutsider]

It's interesting to think how Tesla will slash $20,000 off the sticker price of Bluestar (targeting the entry-level luxury market - BMW 3-series as the benchmark).

The batteries are such a huge proportion of the cost of the car that you cannot really make any headway without slashing the battery size. A BMW 3-series weighs 700 pounds less than a BMW 5-series. So Tesla probably needs to chop 700 pounds in weight. Chopping that weight, in and of itself, probably does not save you that much money (how much does 700# of aluminum cost?). But the real savings would be a smaller amount of energy needed to move the car (possibly a smaller motor) and a smaller battery pack since you can get more mileage with less energy.

Given the current investment in aluminum producing infrastructure (and the expertise they are developing) I would think they stick with aluminum for the weight factor (and resulting battery size).

Bluestar probably is narrower, has less of a frunk and less of a trunk and a slightly smaller back seat. Probably remains a hatchback for the aerodynamics. Has fewer bells and whistles.

The best scenario is that battery costs come down so substantially that most of the $20K gap is covered by that. The 160 mile pack costs somewhere between $16,000 and $24,000 to make. If prices drop by 25-35% that right there would mean a $4,000 - $8,000 chop in prices. Smaller size and smaller battery packs might be enough then to lower the price and maintain the same level of bells & whistles & creature comforts inside the cabin. And if this happens then the Model S can be upgraded with an even nicer interior and even more bells & whistles standard.

Isn't steel heavier than aluminum? If so, they'll actually be adding weight (well, more weight than they would have added had they gone with aluminum). I'd imagine they may go cheaper on the interior and other niceties. It will be smaller of course, and lower in performance. I can see them going with a 150-200 mile range (at that time, it might be cheaper to do than it is to do the 160 mile on S today). That might be enough to bring the price down. I imagine the base model will be VERY basic though with people optioning their way up out of the 30's (take a look at the maximum cost thread).

 

[WhiteKnight]

Isn't steel heavier than aluminum?

Steel is absolutely heavier than aluminum and also considerably less expensive. Tesla might be tempted to switch to steel to save costs and the added weight might not be a problem if this were an ICE car. But I doubt they will switch because even though the performance penalty in 0-60 would be acceptable the need for bigger batteries to maintain the same range would NOT be acceptable from a cost standpoint.

Sorry I wasn't more clear.

My grand conclusion is that very little matters other than battery costs. Battery prices come down 25%-35% and the Bluestar will be a great car for the money (and Model S will have much nicer standard features too). If battery prices don't come down that much then Bluestar will be either too small or too cheap (quality not price) relative to the BMW 3 series.

A Chevy Volt and a BMW 3-Series are the same price after federal tax credits and if you set aside a desire to "go green" there's no doubt that the BMW 3-Series is a better all around car. Whereas you could put a Model S against a BMW 5-series and win on merits alone.

 

[Doug_G]

The weight isn't the overriding issue. It's aerodynamics. If the car is smaller it will automatically have less drag. If they make it small and with an excellent drag coefficient, then they'll need less batteries.

 

[JRod0802]

The weight isn't the overriding issue. It's aerodynamics. If the car is smaller it will automatically have less drag. If they make it small and with an excellent drag coefficient, then they'll need less batteries.

Good aerodynamics will increase the range more on the highway, and not matter too much in the city. Low weight will increase the range more in the city, and not matter too much on the highway. Considering that EVs are already really good in the city, perhaps Bluestar will be small / aerodynamic, but made out of steel. That would reduce the price because it's smaller and reduce the price because it's steel, as well as help out the highway range range at the cost of a lower city range.

Considering that people tend to run out of range on the highway, rather than when driving in the city, a small aerodynamic steel car might be the best option to get the price into the mid 30's.

 

[richkae]

Aluminum is about $1.20 per pound. Steel is about $.25 to $.30 per pound.
If 1/2 of the non battery weight is aluminum - then the Model S has about 1500 pounds of aluminum.
It seems unlikely that $1500 of raw materials is that big of an issue.

The presses, robots, welders and everything that put together an aluminum car are probably a lot more expensive than the ones that build a steel car.
Welding and cutting aluminum takes a ton more precision than steel.

In the Model S video, they talked of stampings, extrusions and castings. I asked an engineer at the Tesla factory tour and he said that they would do all the stampings at their factory but they had to outsource ( some of ) the castings and extrusions.
Those castings and extrusions are probably expensive ( compared to inhouse stampings ).

If Tesla spends $300 million on all the robots and presses and other factory bits to make the Model S, thats $3000 per car if they sell 100,000 cars over 6 years.
How much of the machinery that they put in for the Model S will they be able to reuse for Bluestar?
If the Bluestar is steel, does that mean that they reuse none of the presses?

 

[richkae]

The best scenario is that battery costs come down so substantially that most of the $20K gap is covered by that. The 160 mile pack costs somewhere between $16,000 and $24,000 to make.

This number is high - where did you get it?
I don't think its meaningful to talk about the cost per battery pack until you can establish scale. Most of the cost of assembling the packs is fixed overhead.
The same pack that is $16000 in quantities of hundreds could easily be less than $6000 in quantities of hundreds of thousands.

It is the most important cost of the car, but I am dubious of those numbers.

 

[Lloyd]

If Tesla spends $300 million on all the robots and presses and other factory bits to make the Model S, thats $3000 per car if they sell 100,000 cars over 6 years.
How much of the machinery that they put in for the Model S will they be able to reuse for Bluestar?
If the Bluestar is steel, does that mean that they reuse none of the presses?

That question was asked on our tour, and all of the machinery is usable for multiple lines, including steel.

 

[Doug_G]

Good aerodynamics will increase the range more on the highway, and not matter too much in the city. Low weight will increase the range more in the city, and not matter too much on the highway.

Yeah, but look at the range of the Roadster when you drive slowly; it's much larger than the rated 240 miles. So I would argue at low speeds none of it matters quite as much. Yes, stop-and-go traffic will reduce that ideal range, but regenerative braking will help with that. So I still contend that aerodynamics are more important overall.