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tesla blue star
- Thread starter stevebalmmer
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- Model 3
VolkerP:
I don't get people who think there is place for only one electric car in the wrold. If Tesla is not the first from some (obscure) point of view than they can't and won't succeed?
Pure nonsense. Mercedes, BMW and Porsche have no problem selling cars even though Koreans sell their POS for small fraction of their prices.
Tesla will be able to sell everything they produce for at least another 10 years and more, no matter what other automakers do.
And they are doing mostly noting except showcasing concepts, scratching their heads and talking gibberish.
Nissan Leaf is the *only* electric car on the road that deserves to be called a car and is still miles away from what Tesla produces.
Re BlueStar:
There really is only one way to reduce the price of an electric car: reduce the battery size and range. This will still be the case even when batteries store 10-times more capacity than today.
Gasoline tank only costs some space under rear seats so every gasoline car comes with a tank good for at least 500 miles or more.
Batteries will forever cost more than an empty gasoline tank so electric cars will always cost proportionally to their max range. What Tesla can do is to reduce max range. If Model S has 160, 230 and 300 mile pack, BlueStart could have only 100, 150 and 200 mile packs.
It appears to me you don't know what you are talking about.
I don't get people who think there is place for only one electric car in the wrold. If Tesla is not the first from some (obscure) point of view than they can't and won't succeed?
Pure nonsense. Mercedes, BMW and Porsche have no problem selling cars even though Koreans sell their POS for small fraction of their prices.
Tesla will be able to sell everything they produce for at least another 10 years and more, no matter what other automakers do.
And they are doing mostly noting except showcasing concepts, scratching their heads and talking gibberish.
Nissan Leaf is the *only* electric car on the road that deserves to be called a car and is still miles away from what Tesla produces.
Re BlueStar:
There really is only one way to reduce the price of an electric car: reduce the battery size and range. This will still be the case even when batteries store 10-times more capacity than today.
Gasoline tank only costs some space under rear seats so every gasoline car comes with a tank good for at least 500 miles or more.
Batteries will forever cost more than an empty gasoline tank so electric cars will always cost proportionally to their max range. What Tesla can do is to reduce max range. If Model S has 160, 230 and 300 mile pack, BlueStart could have only 100, 150 and 200 mile packs.
I would be glad to be proven wrong. I agree that Tesla can sell all the cars they are able to produce. But as they lose the pole position in the "practical car" class, it will become harder to introduce new standards.
Agreed. Range can be increased by reducing rolling resistance, ancillary loads and aerodynamic drag, thus a lower battery capacity will do. Tesla has shown that they can rethink the concept of a sedan, similar ideas are required for blue star. But it will cost time, and there's a penalty for that.
I think the practical limit for a battery pack is 120 miles. Otherwise the power density requirements will lead to make big compromises, like the bulky 24kWh GM Volt battery with only 16kWh usable capacity.
Thank you for clarifying - it is important to note whether you have included Tesla's margin. Your original post said it cost $16000 to $24000 to make - that is different.
I'd be happy to read any references you have for the $300 to $375 number.
The track record for Wall Street analysts with respect to *anything* EV has been incredibly bad in my estimation.
There are 3 main costs in the battery pack.
#1 are the cells. You can buy 18650 cells at retail for less than $300 per kWh. I bet Tesla pays less than half that.
#2 is the management electronics. This is entirely scale. 1 set of chips may be a million dollars, but a million of them can be a few dollars each.
#3 is assembly. Again scale. A $10 million dollar robot that makes 1000 packs is very expensive, when it makes 100,000 packs over its lifetime it is not.
Any estimate of the cost of a battery pack that doesn't include scale is worthless.
The difference between 600 packs ( Roadster ) per year and 5,000 packs ( first year of Model S ) is huge.
They get another scale jump between 5000 and 20000 when they bump up production, and again when they add Model X.
The difference between 20k-35k packs ( Model S ) and 100k+ packs ( Bluestar? ) is again huge.
Just taking the exact same 160 mile range Model S pack and increasing volume from 10s of thousands per year to 100s of thousands could yield significant cost reductions.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
They are quite good with making impressive announcements that sound as if they are progressing faster than Tesla. While it's difficult to know everything that happens behind the scenes, it seems Tesla is actually increasing its lead, although as a company it still has to get to the point where it has the means to mass-manufacture. While many large car manufacturers are now working on bringing EVs to market, there will be more options for buyers, but this will also legitimize, popularize and increase the market towards the mainstream. It will become a bit difficult to say EVs are rubbish when all companies are offering one. Saves Tesla a lot of marketing effort.
Theory ahead:
I think once the S is successfully launched, that will buy them time. They can ride the buzz of that for a year easily (being the only EV on the road that's pretty much like a normal car). While people are focusing there, they slap the Model X down on the table (most people probably won't see it coming). As people are reeling from that, they start announcing the other variants, and by then people are thinking "whoa, this is a real company here".
By that time, they should be fairly close to Bluestar and can launch it on brand name alone. not to mention, by the time they actually make an announcement, they'll probably be only a year or so out (not needing to fill gaping voids with announcements since other models are launching in the interim)
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Looking at the Yaris, you only save a couple hundred dollars going to a two door. It doesn't seem to save any weight (less than 10 lbs in the 2011 model, no savings in the 2012 model). The only reason the VW Golf 2 door is so much cheaper is because the 2 door has a 5 speed manual transmission as standard, versus a 6 speed automatic as standard on the 4 door.
I would much prefer the practicality of 4 doors over 2 doors for the little money and weight you save.
The only way Tesla would get massive savings from going to two doors is to go micro-subcompact. That will mean either a two seater like the Fortwo, or making the 3rd and/or 4th seat much less smaller (like in the iQ). I'm not entirely sure there is that big of a market for micro-subcompacts in the US (the Smart failed miserably; iQ isn't out yet, so hard to judge). But I'm sure there's a huge market for 4 door subcompacts (Fit, Versa, Yaris; A3 on the premium side).
I think a better comparison is the BMW 740i Sedan, weight 4,344 lbs (4 Door & 5 Seat Model S equivalent) to the BMW 128i Coupe, weight 3285 lbs (2 Door & 4 Seat Blue Star equivalent). Over a 1000 lbs drop in weight. Not too shabby. :wink:
There name "Model S" has been confirmed as a tip of the hat to Henry Ford's Model naming such as the "A" and "T". That car changed the roads by bringing the automobile to be an affordable vehicle for the masses. The new Electrics Tesla is bring is the new paradigm of electrics (all over again)
The Bluestar or what Tesla is now calling the Third Generation "3rd gen" may or may not to have been planned to be Tesla's own "Model T" with the same name. With Tesla's own size comparisons with a BMW 3 series it's looking more high end $30s cost now than a teens or even 20s priced low end car. Since Tesla is not even referring to the car with a letter designation like they are doing with the X, maybe there is an even further car down the road with the "T" name waiting for it.
The Bluestar or what Tesla is now calling the Third Generation "3rd gen" may or may not to have been planned to be Tesla's own "Model T" with the same name. With Tesla's own size comparisons with a BMW 3 series it's looking more high end $30s cost now than a teens or even 20s priced low end car. Since Tesla is not even referring to the car with a letter designation like they are doing with the X, maybe there is an even further car down the road with the "T" name waiting for it.
Supposedly if you order the optional "aerodynamic wheels".
I think they have yet to show what those actually look like.
Since they don't appear to be standard, I gather they might not be everyone's first choice from a style perspective.
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