Tesla.com - "Transitioning to Tesla Vision"

[Ramona48]

A few points. Folks will do what they always do. They will complain, whine, bolster and threaten. Then, they will accept it. It has happened millions of times. Remember seatbelts? Tesla knows that in just a few weeks this will all settle down and people who were going to buy, will buy. Also, I remember when Chrysler reduced it's 100k mile warranty on the engine saying that the customers did not want a 100k warranty. Yeah, right. Again refer to my point above, we will accept it. I remember when tesla said its system would multiple times better than humans. And, do not worry the car will be self driving and you will be able to make money off it. That is clearly not the line now. My last point is that if they wanted your input, they would have given it to you.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

No we don't know that. Elon didn't say that it wasn't changed very often, he said "Logs showed almost no usage." That may mean that most passenger seats never had the lumbar adjusted even a single time. And that wouldn't surprise me given the number of people that didn't know that the driver or passenger seats had adjustable the lumbar support option until the news of it being removed from the passenger seat broke.

It depends on how we interpret logs.

When I code something I have it spit out logs of changes as the changes is what I'm looking for. But, its also possible to spit out logs of all the settings that are known.

For the sake of argument lets say its the later. That they know the precise lumbar setting off all the targeted vehicles, and when they were last changed.

They'd still have to throw out all the data from those who hardly ever have a person in the passenger seat. In fact I would ignore all the data from all the cars except cars that 2+ people going on frequent long drives. Obviously they're the ones that would have the highest likelihood of benefiting.

But, even then if the logs still showed almost no usage even among people that should use it I would start to wonder about its implementation. We know lumbar support is supposed to help. So its something that people are supposed to use, and as a car manufacture they should be trying to encourage comfort, safety, and well being.

Maybe the users simply weren't aware of it due to the position or design of the switch. In that case it might be a good idea to have something that pops up on a long drive reminding someone that it was available.

But, instead of doing that they decided to go the "logs show" path which I find really bizarre.

I'm sure someone said "Well how often is it actually used?" during some component shortage meeting. Then a bunch of people went looking to show that it wasn't used much.

 

[MP3Mike]

When I code something I have it spit out logs of changes as the changes is what I'm looking for. But, its also possible to spit out logs of all the settings that are known.

For the sake of argument lets say its the later. That they know the precise lumbar setting off all the targeted vehicles, and when they were last changed.

From what we have seen they only log button presses, not the position/setting of the lumbar support. (Which is probably why it isn't stored in the driver's profile.)

They'd still have to throw out all the data from those who hardly ever have a person in the passenger seat. In fact I would ignore all the data from all the cars except cars that 2+ people going on frequent long drives. Obviously they're the ones that would have the highest likelihood of benefiting.

So if 99% of the cars never have anyone in the passenger seat, but 50%, of the remaining 1%, use it that would mean that they need to keep it? Even when only 0.5% of the passenger lumbar units are used?

 

[orion2001]

@Knightshade - Yes, designing for vision doesn't mean it is there yet. Not sure why that is hard to comprehend. Literally everything about the current rollout highlights how forced it has been to react to part shortages, not because they have achieved parity. Find me a quote for Karpathy saying that if you're going to use that line of logic. I don't have any issues with the general concept of going vision-only. I do, have issues with it when it isn't quite ready for primetime and is objectively nerfed in comparison to what existed a month ago.

And besides, that is a straw man anyways, because you were taking offense to someone criticizing Musk's quote on sensor fusion. I replied in relation to that. Sensor fusion is still not an either-or proposition and anyone working in that space will tell you that. Musk's statement was either extremely ill-informed or intentionally misleading for PR spin purposes. It is what it is.

 

[WhiteWi]

It will pass on and people will continue to buy Tesla. I remember all the outrage about smaller map size after December UI update. LOL

 

[Knightshade]

@Knightshade - Yes, designing for vision doesn't mean it is there yet. Not sure why that is hard to comprehend.

Probably the part where I never said it was there yet but you're still putting those words in my mouth.

Yeah, pretty sure it's that part.

Literally everything about the current rollout highlights how forced it has been to react to part shortages

Which is literally what I said happened.

They've been planning to switch to vision for years (we have quotes from at least 2018 mentioning this)- and the parts shortage forced them to make a hard cut ahead of schedule.


In fact this is the second time I'm having to point out to someone who replied to my posts without apparently actually reading them that I said that.

Here's the last time-

My post explicitly points out the shortage likely sped up the change to vision only

and then here's where I originally said it.

FWIW I agree doing it TODAY is a part shortage thing.

But they've said publicly they're planning to move to a vision-based system for several years now and we've seen development in the code going that way for years.

The shortage probably moved them to it a little earlier than planned, but it's not just "YOLO!" from scratch here.

So I agree there's a strawman being built here, but entirely by you.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Yep, so they knew they would lose check marks from all the previous times they did this, and had plenty of time to plan for this. Knowing this, they:

1) Did not include this "temporary" reduction in safety ratings in any of their messaging ahead of it happening. Instead, allowed it to become a news story when NHTSA removed it and had no prepared message for this and had to react. Even though they had a very detailed "transitioning to Tesla vision" page with all kinds of FAQs. When they did add something 3 days later, they added this, which is still there:



Whoops. Doesn't seem like the kind of thing you'd say when you knew your safety ratings were about to change in a big news cycle. Yes, I am aware it says "crash safety" in the answer, but the question just says "safety ratings" which absolutely changed. It's either slimy, or they had no idea it was about to happen, except they did know it was going to happen because it already had.

Yes, the original page didn't mention NHTSA ratings at all, but there is not need to mention that in the FAQ if the question wasn't frequently asked by the media or the public (like it didn't back in AP2). However, after the media attention exploded on the ratings specifically (and CR/IIHS also followed suit), they obviously had to add a part to address it, as there were too many rumors flying on what it actually entailed, like if it meant the features were gone completely or if it just meant they are just waiting for testing. Heck, we even had an argument right here about this specific subject! So it was definitely worth adding to an FAQ (which what a lot of owners will look at, not arguments here on the forums or having to dig through reports, esp. given Tesla doesn't even have a PR department anymore).

2) Did not tell anyone when NHTSA would retest the car, until it was a news story and Elon tells Elektrek of all places that "he checked with the AP team and AEB is still there, and they're testing it next week" (which is now this week).

The retesting is a different subject from losing the checkmarks. For AP2 the cars were not retested even after the software restored the functionality. They just lost the ratings permanently. You can check yourself on the NHTSA website to verify. However, this is different from knowing that that the ratings would be lost (Tesla already knew that history). At this point, it's not yet a given they will get the checkmarks back for sure (we'll see soon I guess).

2.5) Elon wasn't sure if AEB was removed until he checked with the AP team days after NHTSA removed the ratings.

Elon may not have fully been in the loop on these nuances, but obviously someone in Tesla knew to be able to answer him. Despite a lot of people treating him like he is superhuman, like he is the only person running the company (despite having to divide his time with SpaceX) and like he is aware of every detail of the company, that is obviously not the case. While it's fair to say he is likely far more involved than your typical executive, I don't expect it's possible he knows every detail without having to consult other people in the company.

3) Decides to remove it on the 3/Y, but not S/X, so now they get TWO news cycles of it being removed when (if ever...) they do it on the S/X, instead of one.

If they postpone this change for the Model S/X until the model year change, they may not need a retest given it'll be part of the 2022 model year (not an awkward 2021 "later release" mid-year change). And even if they do need a retest later on, it would not coincide with the Plaid launch, which is a critical juncture where they need good press (not mixed press).

4) Needed to update their website multiple times in one day, piecemeal, and then kept editing it over the next week. Even removed AEB for a few hours until Reddit noticed. Yep, well planned.

The edit about AEB only showed up that one time and was removed. There doesn't appear to be any other change since then (correct me if I'm wrong).

They've updated the transitioning page at least 50 times since it was first posted.

From what I can see in internet archive, they made one edit (yes I actually bothered to check with a text comparator) on 5/28 afternoon to add the questions about the ratings and to clarify how the safety features are actually affected and it remained the same up to today (other than to correct a misspelling of "breaking" instead of "braking" on 5/29).
If you are referring to the amount of entries on internet archive, that is not a indicator of edits. That is only an indicator of snapshots, which can be taken even if there was no change to the page.
Wayback Machine

So yep, they're either still complete idiots that can't plan at all, or they ran out of radars. Which one is a better message?

That statement seems like another false dilemma or non sequitur being set up. As for the "better message", I don't care about which one is the "better message", only what is the truth. And this is driving further and further from the original topic, which was me asking if there is even any actual evidence of radar unit shortages in the industry (not even talking about Tesla specifically), and so far the only things being posted are evidence of controller shortages (which would entail Tesla removing infotainment or AP as a whole to address, not just a radar unit).

Your argument is trying way too hard to work backwards to say how it "must" be a radar shortage, but the same arguments would still apply if the motivation is simply just to save money by removing the radar unit (regardless of availability of that unit), which we already have evidence of, given the removal of passenger lumbar controls to reduce costs. This is putting aside the "better message", which is that Tesla is saying Tesla Vision will eventually be better without radar.

I cannot believe someone would use this argument to defend Tesla. The idea that you have no idea what you are getting when you order a car, and you have to go over it with a fine toothed comb at delivery because you should know that anything on the web or order form is just hopes and dreams? Meanwhile, most Tesla defenders say "that wasn't on your order page, you aren't owed that!"

I'm not saying or implying this is necessarily a good thing for consumers (that's why I mentioned the Model Y LR RWD; the people who ordered are certainly not happy about it), or that Tesla must always continue this way. However, it's simply a reality of how Tesla operates (with no sign of change) and everyone looking to buy one needs to be aware of this fact before jumping in. If they don't like it, they need to shop elsewhere. If enough people vote with their wallets, maybe Tesla can be motivated to change back to a more "traditional" way of operation. Currently they do things this way because they feel it makes them more agile to respond to changing market conditions and competition.

All of this just so you can avoid acknowledging that Tesla has supply chain issues just like everyone else and that's why they removed Radar from only some of their products. And Lumbar.

They have supply chain issues affecting other parts (controllers and other chips), and obviously the removal of radar saves them money to address rising costs of those components (which I believe Elon mentioned they found replacements for), but that's different from saying they have a radar shortage (which so far there no one had posted evidence of yet and I'm still waiting for).

 

[smogne41]

I am not an aerospace engineer (I work in a field with a bit of overlap) but I know enough to realize Elon really knows his stuff. I am also not a machine learning expert (I know very little) but I know enough to realize Elon does not know his stuff. Guess what, it is totally consistent that somebody can know how to land a rocket on a ship, but be totally wrong about another field.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

From what we have seen they only log button presses, not the position/setting of the lumbar support. (Which is probably why it isn't stored in the driver's profile.)



So if 99% of the cars never have anyone in the passenger seat, but 50%, of the remaining 1%, use it that would mean that they need to keep it? Even when only 0.5% of the passenger lumbar units are used?

You liked a response to my comment that said "Tesla should know also know the lumbar setting" so I assumed you were onboard with that so I used that as an example.

I don't see anything that suggest that Tesla can determine the position of the lumbar support. Like you said why have that capability, but not recall that in the drivers profile?

So what can they do then? They can log the switch activity (onboard the Microcontroller), and have it available for a query. Maybe they want to know usage data to determine when the motor assemblies needs to be replaced.

What they got showed almost no usage, but does that mean that hardly anyone used it? or does it mean that people set it once and forgot about it? On mine I know I played around with it, and then left it. Almost everyone with a kid is likely to have had it played with it. Anyone who hasn't touched it hasn't actually tested their car out to make sure everything works.

So you can probably safety assume that most every car is going to have at least a few button presses. But, what does that data really tell you? Nothing because you don't know the position of the setting which is what I was arguing with my initial post. It's a change and forget kind of setting.

To answer your other question there are different schools of thought on whether manufactures should dictate to customers what they need or let customers dictate to companies what they want.

In a competitive environment you're often having to match specs because even if its a hardly used feature the lack of it could cost you a sale. This is likely one of those features people think they need more than they actually really do.

Other times you want to justify a higher end option even if people aren't actually going to use the features. So even if hardly anyone uses a feature on a higher end package you still need them to get customers to justify buying the higher end option.

Lastly with a Tesla or any EV the spouse acceptance factor is extremely important. You're not going to get that spouse acceptance factor if there seat doesn't have the same comfort functionality as the main seat. There are also OCD'ish people like me that like symmetry, and it ruins the symmetry. The manual is also currently wrong as it shows Lumbar support for the front seats.

It should be interesting to see how it all plays out. If Passenger Lumbar is gone for good or if it will be reintroduced once the semiconductor shortage is over.

 

[smogne41]

It will pass on and people will continue to buy Tesla. I remember all the outrage about smaller map size after December UI update. LOL

Funny, on balance the UI thing is minor in the grand scheme of things, but it was the thing that really started to shake my opinion of the brand (was a decently sold fan but never a fanboi). There had been things before that that I did not agree with, but on balance I still liked the company. After the last 6 months, I really don't think they will have much of a future long-term if they don't turn things around in a bunch of ways. Their fixation on FSD chief among them.

 

[stopcrazypp]

And since no one is obviously doing the work to find evidence of a radar shortage, I'll post what I found so far. Tesla currently uses the Continental ARS410 radar unit in the Model 3/Y. This unit is also used by multiple manufacturers. I found at least these specific examples: VW Tiguan, Ford Focus, Nissan X-Trail, Mercedes-Benz C/E-Class.

I then looked through to find specific causes of delays in these models (or at least these manufacturers). All I found were evidence of delays for the type of parts that the reports all already mention as affected, which are infotainment (Ford) and navigation (Nissan) units and control modules for things like brakes (Ford), wipers (Ford), ESP (VW) and ECUs for on-board computers (VW), Pre-Safe assistance system (Mercedes, this module pre-tensions the seatbelts, adjusts headrests, and closes windows.)

Found no mention of radar unit shortages, or even effects on features like ACC (which would use such a radar unit, although other components may affect availability of such a feature also). If there is a shortage of this part, I would imagine Tesla won't be the only one affected, and I've yet to find evidence of this (or even a shortage overall of radar units, even including from other manufacturers like Bosch). I find it hard to believe if there is a major automotive radar shortage out there, there won't be at least an article that mentioned it specifically, given there are ones that mention even parts are small as a wiper control module.

 

[dyau]

Therein lies the problem, if the camera can tell it's a bridge what's the point of the radar?

There's basically 4 scenarios:
1) Both sensors determine there is something in its path: you have high confidence there is.
2) Both sensors determine there isn't something in its path: you have high confidence there isn't
3) radar determines there is something in its path, but camera doesn't (basically the situation you point out at end and also in phanthom braking events): if you want to play it safe, you brake or slow down
4) camera determines there is something in its path, but radar doesn't: same deal, if you want to play it safe you brake or slow down.

The contribution to phantom braking is largely between which plays a bigger role: #3 or #4? And #3 really is where radar plays its role in improving safety, but also where it can contribute to phantom braking or "noise" overall even if car decides not to act.

i disagree with your#4. Your assumption is that both signals occur at the sametime and for the same distance. Camera can see much farther than radar. For the "tunnel causing phantom braking example", the camera can see the incoming tunnel from a far distance, can actually track the tunnel as the car approaches it. If the radar responds with "there is something in the path", that is the expected behavior for the car, and the car should absolutely ignore the radar at this point.

This doesn't mean radar is not important. If vision didn't capture anything where a radar response would be expected behavior, and there is a radar response, then for sure i would trust radar over the vision and would hope my car brakes in time.. Like in fog, heavy rain, or when its dark.

 

[PhantomX]

And since no one is obviously doing the work to find evidence of a radar shortage, I'll post what I found so far. Tesla currently uses the Continental ARS410 radar unit in the Model 3/Y. This unit is also used by multiple manufacturers. I found at least these specific examples: VW Tiguan, Ford Focus, Nissan X-Trail, Mercedes-Benz C/E-Class.

I then looked through to find specific causes of delays in these models (or at least these manufacturers). All I found were evidence of delays for the type of parts that the reports all already mention as affected, which are infotainment (Ford) and navigation (Nissan) units and control modules for things like brakes (Ford), wipers (Ford), ESP (VW) and ECUs for on-board computers (VW), Pre-Safe assistance system (Mercedes, this module pre-tensions the seatbelts, adjusts headrests, and closes windows.)

Found no mention of radar unit shortages, or even effects on features like ACC (which would use such a radar unit, although other components may affect availability of such a feature also). If there is a shortage of this part, I would imagine Tesla won't be the only one affected, and I've yet to find evidence of this (or even a shortage overall of radar units, even including from other manufacturers like Bosch). I find it hard to believe if there is a major automotive radar shortage out there, there won't be at least an article that mentioned it specifically, given there are ones that mention even parts are small as a wiper control module.

Actually, BMW has removed Driver Assistance Package Pro from many of its model due to chip shortage. You can see the discussion here on the BMW forum, and other threads linked within this thread. I would say the discussion didn't hone in on the specific part shortage, just that chip shortage has affected ADAS offering from BMW, as well as other features across BMW lineups.

BMW AG Plants Starting to be Affected by Global Chip Shortage

BMW AG Plants Starting to be Affected by Global Chip Shortage

g07.bimmerpost.com

 

[greenmore]

Right.

The dude who lands reusable rockets doesn't understand science.

That makes sense.

Do you really think Elon designed all the products his companies make?
Elon Musk is not an engineer but a businessman so we forgive him for not knowing how sensor fusion works.
Steve Jobs also had no idea how hardware worked and wasn't a programmer either, yet he did pretty well.

 

[ZeApelido]

Do you really think Elon designed all the products his companies make?
Elon Musk is not an engineer but a businessman so we forgive him for not knowing how sensor fusion works.
Steve Jobs also had no idea how hardware worked and wasn't a programmer either, yet he did pretty well.

Dude I know multiple people who've worked directly with Musk at Tesla & SpaceX.

He is most definitely an engineer.

And a businessman.

He is not a machine learning expert.

The end.

 

[greenmore]

Do you really think Elon designed all the products his companies make?
Elon Musk is not an engineer but a businessman so we forgive him for not knowing how sensor fusion works.
Steve Jobs also had no idea how hardware worked and wasn't a programmer either, yet he did pretty well.

Catching up on all the conversation...

So we heard a lot of anecdotal "evidence" of how smart Elon is. I don't doubt he's smart. As I understand, he even studied some undergrad level physics. I'm sure he's very good as making decisions based on all the information and options that are presented to him by his expert engineers and scientists.

 

[smogne41]

Catching up on all the conversation...

So we heard a lot of anecdotal "evidence" of how smart Elon is. I don't doubt he's smart. As I understand, he even studied some undergrad level physics. I'm sure he's very good as making decisions based on all the information and options that are presented to him by his expert engineers and scientists.

He has a bachelors in physics from UPenn. I guess that counts as "some undergraduate level physics".

 

[Knightshade]

Elon Musk is not an engineer but a businessman

This was debunked yesterday with multiple experts from JPL, NASA, and elsewhere proving you wrong.

Maybe catch up on the thread before doubling down on untrue claims?

 

[qdeathstar]

Who cares about his understanding of how physics is, Elon has delivered on a lot of promises and has thus far failed to deliver on a few promises.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Who cares about his understanding of how physics is, Elon has delivered on a lot of promises and has thus far failed to deliver on a few promises.

i think when you paid $10k for FSD ... you are entitled to care more about "few" failed promises versus "a lot of" delivered promises