Tesla.com - "Transitioning to Tesla Vision"

[qdeathstar]

z

i think when you paid $10k for FSD ... you are entitled to care more about "few" failed promises versus "a lot of" delivered promises

How does his understanding of physics factor in? If you paid 10k for FSD you have only been waiting a couple of months and are getting at least some benefits.

 

[gearchruncher]

If you paid 10k for FSD you have only been waiting a couple of months and are getting at least some benefits.

I see you have gone to the Elon school of language where 8 is "a couple"
I'm sure something great will be released shortly so nobody has to go from waiting "a couple" months to "a few" months.

 

[qdeathstar]

I see you have gone to the Elon school of language where 8 is "a couple”

I’m what Elon likes to call a... “fast learner”...

 

[kpedraja]

I don't see it phantom braking as a huge problem. Frankly, I don't know why people are complaining about it.

If you're tooling along at 75 mph and your car suddenly slams on the brakes because it can't figure out what's going with an overpass (as has happened to me more than once) and someone is following just a little too close, that can be a really huge problem.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Actually, BMW has removed Driver Assistance Package Pro from many of its model due to chip shortage. You can see the discussion here on the BMW forum, and other threads linked within this thread. I would say the discussion didn't hone in on the specific part shortage, just that chip shortage has affected ADAS offering from BMW, as well as other features across BMW lineups.

BMW AG Plants Starting to be Affected by Global Chip Shortage

BMW AG Plants Starting to be Affected by Global Chip Shortage

g07.bimmerpost.com

I already discussed this in the past. This is a removal of the package as a whole (akin to Tesla removing AP), which has many components (critically it has the controllers that we already know from many reports there is a shortage of). I asked whoever posted about this move if there is any evidence this is from a radar shortage (given they said BMW said it was a radar shortage), but I never got a response back.
And also, from what I can find, you can get regular old ACC (which explicitly uses a radar) in lieu of the DAPP package (which does lane keeping also), so that does nothing to address a radar shortage (it does address a controller chip shortage however if more advanced functionality is removed).
Differences between Active Cruise and Driving Assistance Pro?

 

[RDoc]

Therein lies the problem, if the camera can tell it's a bridge what's the point of the radar?

There's basically 4 scenarios:
1) Both sensors determine there is something in its path: you have high confidence there is.
2) Both sensors determine there isn't something in its path: you have high confidence there isn't
3) radar determines there is something in its path, but camera doesn't (basically the situation you point out at end and also in phanthom braking events): if you want to play it safe, you brake or slow down
4) camera determines there is something in its path, but radar doesn't: same deal, if you want to play it safe you brake or slow down.

The contribution to phantom braking is largely between which plays a bigger role: #3 or #4? And #3 really is where radar plays its role in improving safety, but also where it can contribute to phantom braking or "noise" overall even if car decides not to act.

This seems a bit simplistic to me. The designer is well aware of the capabilities of the different sensors. Tesla's radar has decent horizontal resolution and poor vertical, but very accurate distance and velocity capabilities. Their vison has OK vertical an horizontal resolution but poor velocity and distance. So, that's where sensor fusion comes in.

The point to the radar is that it can tell how far away an object is and that it how it's moving relative to the road. The camera can recognize it as a bridge, the radar says how far away it is, giving the overall system an accurate scale, and also tells it's not moving relative to the road. Put the two together and you know you have a bridge in front, that it's not moving (thereby reinforcing that it's a bridge), and you know how far away it is and what the vertical and horizontal clearance is.

Your point 3 seems very scary if all you have is vision. If the radar senses something and the camera doesn't see it at all, that is very likely to be a case like a white truck crossing in front with a white sky behind it. That exact scenario killed a guy. Offhand I can't think of a way to generate a sustained radar artifact with no vision detection at all. Keep in mind that radar systems operate at a very high repetition rate, so a target has to consistently be detected to be reported. If the camera doesn't see it at all, the car should definitely brake.

Point 4 describes phantom braking using a vision only system. I've not seen any statistics, but based on how the systems work, vision artifacts seem much more likely than radar artifacts. Sunlight, snow, rain, etc. effect vision strongly and radar weakly.

 

[PhantomX]

I already discussed this in the past. This is a removal of the package as a whole (akin to Tesla removing AP), which has many components (critically it has the controllers that we already know from many reports there is a shortage of). I asked whoever posted about this move if there is any evidence this is from a radar shortage (given they said BMW said it was a radar shortage), but I never got a response back.
And also, from what I can find, you can get regular old ACC (which explicitly uses a radar) in lieu of the DAPP package (which does lane keeping also), so that does nothing to address a radar shortage (it does address a controller chip shortage however if more advanced functionality is removed).
Differences between Active Cruise and Driving Assistance Pro?

Hmm, as far as I can tell, ACC is not part of the Active Driving Assistance package. It does not appear that ACC is available anymore, at least not in the 330e when I just went through the build page. They do still say the car comes with forward collision warning, so I am guessing that means radar isn't a shortage item and it's something else that cause ACC to be not available?

 

[gearchruncher]

@stopcrazypp - So what is your overall theory for why they removed radar over month ago on the production line? Just cost? Do you think the cost savings were worth it for the bad press this has caused for Tesla (press they seemed to know was coming as you indicated this is why they didn't remove from S/X)?

 

[RDoc]

As I and many others have previously said. Tesla is currently the only really viable general purpose BEV available, mainly because of the Supercharger network. They can sell every car they can make. Until that changes, no matter how much weeping, moaning, and gnashing of teeth there is, Tesla will do whatever it wants to.
No matter how hesitant a buyer is, if in the end they buy, that's all that counts.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

@stopcrazypp - So what is your overall theory for why they removed radar over month ago on the production line? Just cost? Do you think the cost savings were worth it for the bad press this has caused for Tesla (press they seemed to know was coming as you indicated this is why they didn't remove from S/X)?

why they removed radar over a month ago and then subsequently parked thousands of cars for mysterious reasons (for weeks) on holding lots while frantically trying to tweak the software so the cars can at least be delivered in the US...

 

[texas_star_TM3]

As I and many others have previously said. Tesla is currently the only really viable general purpose BEV available, mainly because of the Supercharger network. They can sell every car they can make. Until that changes, no matter how much weeping, moaning, and gnashing of teeth there is, Tesla will do whatever it wants to.
No matter how hesitant a buyer is, if in the end they buy, that's all that counts.

i don't disagree but would like to add that this is a very unsustainable attitude towards the customers and will hurt the brand image down the road... there's an obvious reason they didn't yank the radar from European cars and tell Germans that no AP above 120kmh. If they had done that they would be rightfully ridiculed. 75mph/120kmh is below the "recommended speed" on the autobahn //

 

[stopcrazypp]

Hmm, as far as I can tell, ACC is not part of the Active Driving Assistance package. It does not appear that ACC is available anymore, at least not in the 330e when I just went through the build page. They do still say the car comes with forward collision warning, so I am guessing that means radar isn't a shortage item and it's something else that cause ACC to be not available?

To be fair, FCW does not require a radar in BMWs, I believe the older ones uses a camera (which can also do some sort of low speed AEB, but that did not pass NHTSA testing from what I can find in the ratings):
Driving Assistance vs Plus - Collision Mitigation

However both the 2021 3 series and 330e was rated for AEB, so I presume they have radars now:
Vehicle Detail Search | NHTSA
Vehicle Detail Search | NHTSA
The 2020 model didn't:
Vehicle Detail Search | NHTSA

 

[techlogik]

I already discussed this in the past. This is a removal of the package as a whole (akin to Tesla removing AP), which has many components (critically it has the controllers that we already know from many reports there is a shortage of). I asked whoever posted about this move if there is any evidence this is from a radar shortage (given they said BMW said it was a radar shortage), but I never got a response back.
And also, from what I can find, you can get regular old ACC (which explicitly uses a radar) in lieu of the DAPP package (which does lane keeping also), so that does nothing to address a radar shortage (it does address a controller chip shortage however if more advanced functionality is removed).
Differences between Active Cruise and Driving Assistance Pro?

BMW is humorously removing lumbar except for drivers in certain models, removing other features, that usually exist in the US in higher platform levels, like the advance Pro Assist, in an X3 for example the Driver's pro package doesn't have auto lane change, or lane change avoidance, or changing the speed ACC setting, and lastly, no auto start from a stop, except for a brief few seconds, then you have to tap the gas or accelerate speed setting on the steering wheel.

Other things they are doing due to the supply issues are quite interesting, so maybe Elon isn't being ridiculous when other manufacturers are doing similar things as well with similar technology.

Moving to radar, since vision seems to be their entire future and they bet the house on it basically, makes sense. But, seems like it has a way to go, and we already see the limits, like the crazy high beam issue and bad implementation of it at night and AP. Nonetheless, dealing with the other issues of driving/identifying things an neural network based on Vision only. Not an easy task, I think the engineers know this, Elon just need to stop talking about this pipe dream as if it is happening tomorrow and take that stuff off their website regarding street turns/driving by year's end, which they've said for years now...still no delivery via any method/technology of that...and on top, let's jack up the price of this vaporware to 10-12K?!?! Nuts.

 

[techlogik]

To be fair, FCW does not require a radar in BMWs, I believe the older ones uses a camera (which can also do some sort of low speed AEB, but that did not pass NHTSA testing from what I can find in the ratings):
Driving Assistance vs Plus - Collision Mitigation

However both the 2021 3 series and 330e was rated for AEB, so I presume they have radars now:
Vehicle Detail Search | NHTSA
Vehicle Detail Search | NHTSA
The 2020 model didn't:
Vehicle Detail Search | NHTSA

BMW states clearly in even their driver's manual that is is radar based with sensor front/back/side for collision/detection. Cameras for other things, like in the rearview mirror for lane/line detection and other things...like backing up and parking as well. Radar to beep for park assist or people/cars collision avoidance.

 

[stopcrazypp]

@stopcrazypp - So what is your overall theory for why they removed radar over month ago on the production line? Just cost? Do you think the cost savings were worth it for the bad press this has caused for Tesla (press they seemed to know was coming as you indicated this is why they didn't remove from S/X)?

Absent of proof of a shortage of radar units (which I'm still waiting for), yes, costs. Elon had said the recent continual stepping up of the price for the 3/Y is to cover for rising costs and obviously it has reached a point where they don't feel like this is sustainable, so they are switching to cost cutting (both radar and the lumbar removal is part of this). There may be other component changes or removals we are not yet aware of yet that may have happened also.

The S/X have much higher margins and base prices in the first place so it doesn't matter as much for them if Tesla has to cover for it (or even if they raise the price).

 

[stopcrazypp]

BMW states clearly in even their driver's manual that is is radar based with sensor front/back/side for collision/detection. Cameras for other things, like in the rearview mirror for lane/line detection and other things...like backing up and parking as well. Radar to beep for park assist or people/cars collision avoidance.

Thanks for the info. I was looking through spec sheets to see if it's specified anywhere, but didn't think to look at the manual.

 

[stopcrazypp]

why they removed radar over a month ago and then subsequently parked thousands of cars for mysterious reasons (for weeks) on holding lots while frantically trying to tweak the software so the cars can at least be delivered in the US...

Elon said they had a chip shortage (which has been time again been corroborated by other reports that this is happening to the rest of the industry) and they had to find alternatives (including switching to different chips and writing new firmware):
Elon Musk compares chip shortage to toilet paper in the pandemic, admits it's affecting Tesla - Electrek

That doesn't mean a radar shortage however (which other reports have not corroborated).

 

[gearchruncher]

The S/X have much higher margins and base prices in the first place so it doesn't matter as much for them if Tesla has to cover for it (or even if they raise the price).

Tesla is historically a company that focuses on safety first, autonomy second, cost third.

If removing radar does not make the car less safe, then there is minimal reason to not remove it on the S/X. Elon has been saying vision only is the future for Tesla, so who doesn't want a car that is most aligned with the future? If that's true, there is no reason to leave radar on the S/X. It's all wasted money, and it's as simple as not installing them on the production line. Software is only a few weeks away.

But the reverse is that they know the removal of this is less safe and Tesla just picked $75 over max safety, which is not a good look for them, or a something to make you feel confident about the company's decisions long term.

For many of us, this very much looks like a difficult decision Tesla had to make in a short time period - and the logical reason for that is supply chain. The story that they did all of this without any pressure except saving a few dollars seems to require them making quite a few very odd and worrysome decisions.

The supply chain decision is in one way, a much better look for the company, because the other path makes it look like they are prioritizing the safety of their richest customers over the safety of the majority of their customers (and where they actually make their money due to volume). Those of us that believe it are in a sense giving the company the benefit of the doubt over the other worse possibilities. The actual shaking my head moment is that Tesla didn't just acknowledge the real reason for this change, and instead had to post some nonsensical excuse for why it's still on the S/X, while also trying to sell this as a good thing for 3/Y owners. Just tell the truth.

 

[qdeathstar]

What’s in that for Tesla?

 

[JHCCAZ]

Elon said they had a chip shortage (which has been time again been corroborated by other reports that this is happening to the rest of the industry) ...
That doesn't mean a radar shortage however (which other reports have not corroborated).

I'm going to insert a tecnical/logic comment, here not taking sides in the whole Elon is/is-not whatever. I tend to agree with much of your other viewpoint, so please take the following as constructive.

I just want to note that much of your recent commentary has been focused on whether there a "chip" shortage vs. a "radar" shortage. I would say that this is a distinction without a difference.

Radar is an electronic technology, a specialized form of radio, for which the system description cannot be separated into the "radar" vs. the "chip" part (noting that basically, "chip" = "semiconductor" = "most all electronic content" in our day). Radar is the whole module, the superset, and chips are inseparably at the heart of it. These include "controller" chips as well as transmit power amplifiers, low-noise receive amplifiers, tuning and modulation/demodulation sections and so on. Probably in these cost-sensitive automotive radars, the various functions are integrated into very few custom chips. Sure there are non-semiconductor elements like antenna/waveguide (probably integrated into the circuit board design), coils, resistors and capacitors - and yes these (especially caps) have sometimes been subject to shortages, but that isn't what I'm hearing today.

So think it's most sensible that a radar-module shortage would be driven by the known and overarching shortage of semiconductor chips. This isn't pedantry; I'm only posting it because of the repeatedly-stated concern about whether it's a radar shortage or a chip shortage - I think it's not either/or here.