Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[JRP3]

The fact that Texas won't allow Tesla to sell cars seems like a good reason to me. Does anyone think Tesla will build the GF in a state that won't allow them to sell cars? Best part is, Tesla can say that's the reason they didn't go with Texas, which might put pressure on Texas to change their laws in the hopes they might get a future GF.

 

[Cattledog]

The fact that Texas won't allow Tesla to sell cars seems like a good reason to me. Does anyone think Tesla will build the GF in a state that won't allow them to sell cars? Best part is, Tesla can say that's the reason they didn't go with Texas, which might put pressure on Texas to change their laws in the hopes they might get a future GF.

If Tesla wants to keep the leverage, off the record they're saying 'you change laws, you get the next one'. The next legislative session starts in January, so after they really ought to be seriously building the thing, which means it's unlikely to get the first one. California and Nevada are the clubhouse leaders.

 

[Model 3]

If Tesla wants to keep the leverage, off the record they're saying 'you change laws, you get the next one'. The next legislative session starts in January, so after they really ought to be seriously building the thing, which means it's unlikely to get the first one. California and Nevada are the clubhouse leaders.

Remember that Elon mention that Texas may get the Truck factory (if they change the law) when Tesla starts to make EV-Trucks...

 

[Jack6591]

I don't know if it is just Elon saying it nicely (so people don't think he is a selfish jerk) or if he really means it... but every time he mentions the Gigafactory and getting the "best deal" from the states, he always includes that it is the best deal for both Tesla AND the state... indicating that is isn't going to do something that would ultimately be bad for the state.

Makes me wonder though about Texas and if they are turning down (not accepting) the 800 million for a good reason.

A couple of questions come to mind:

First, if $800 million is on the table, what else has been proffered?

Second, if $800 million is on the table why is Elon saying $500 million?

I know that there are tremendous complexities to a deal of this magnitude, but some things are not adding up. Makes me question the validity of the news article. I would love to be a fly on the wall.

 

[kenliles]

The fact that Texas won't allow Tesla to sell cars seems like a good reason to me. Does anyone think Tesla will build the GF in a state that won't allow them to sell cars? Best part is, Tesla can say that's the reason they didn't go with Texas, which might put pressure on Texas to change their laws in the hopes they might get a future GF.

It's a long shot for me- even if otherwise a good location. Just can't see making the the primary component for a product you're not allow to sell.

 

[TexasEV]

The fact that Texas won't allow Tesla to sell cars seems like a good reason to me. Does anyone think Tesla will build the GF in a state that won't allow them to sell cars? Best part is, Tesla can say that's the reason they didn't go with Texas, which might put pressure on Texas to change their laws in the hopes they might get a future GF.

There's a lot more at stake here. If tax and other incentives make Texas a better deal by tens of millions of dollars, the lack of direct sales is relatively insignificant. Don't forget that Tesla not being able to sell in Texas isn't the same as people not being able to buy in Texas. We order online. Texas is a large market for Tesla already, suure it would be larger if it was less of a hassle to buy here, but I haven't heard it stopping anyone who wanted one.

 

[JRP3]

There's a lot more at stake here.

True, Texas being a greater distance from the Tesla factory means greater transportation costs for battery packs as well. So Texas would need to compensate for that, along with the unfriendly sales atmosphere.

 

[JBusch]

TexasEV - great point. Texas purchases seem to be doing well regardless of the current laws.

 

[chickensevil]

True, Texas being a greater distance from the Tesla factory means greater transportation costs for battery packs as well. So Texas would need to compensate for that, along with the unfriendly sales atmosphere.

I am reminded of Elon's comments about how they are trying to avoid moving the molecules as much as possible. To me it would seem that it would be far better to stick the factory in NV or CA just because of the proximity to Fremont over anywhere else. Maybe when they make their second auto factory in the US it will be worthwhile to have one of those other states have a factory as well. I will be shocked if TX gets it for that reason alone.

 

[MartinAustin]

I am reminded of Elon's comments about how they are trying to avoid moving the molecules as much as possible. To me it would seem that it would be far better to stick the factory in NV or CA just because of the proximity to Fremont over anywhere else. Maybe when they make their second auto factory in the US it will be worthwhile to have one of those other states have a factory as well. I will be shocked if TX gets it for that reason alone.

Totally agree. I have always thought that Texas has never been truly in the running... no matter how efficient CSX claims rail freight to be.

I think that if Texas bends over backwards and repeals their dealer protection law, Tesla will simply say "we have decided to go somewhere else, but thanks for repealing that law." I doubt Texas would re-instate the law, no matter how smarting they may be.

If Texas doesn't repeal its law, Tesla can simply say that was the reason they were eliminated from the running - and it will get a lot of publicity since the media likes monopolies scandals. In the end it doesn't mean a thing for Tesla, who still sells every car they can make.

The Texas Congress doesn't meet until January, which could well be too late for Tesla (if they have been breaking ground 7 months prior) - so perhaps Cattledog's comment above is right on the money.

 

[Lump]

Nevada legislature might blow the deal? Nevada legislators now face Tesla's 'Gigafactory'

Legislature won't convene again until Feb. 2, 2015 so Assembly Speaker Marilyn Kirkpatrick may not call on a special session.

 

[daniel Ox9EFD]

Asking for ~500 million $ from a poor state seems unethical on face value. I hope Elon would give more clarification on the reasoning behind this request, or perhaps help correct the perception if this is not the case. This seems to be what the media understood too from reading around, anyway.

 

[Zaxxon]

Asking for ~500 million $ from a poor state seems unethical on face value. I hope Elon would give more clarification on the reasoning behind this request, or perhaps help correct the perception if this is not the case. This seems to be what the media understood too from reading around, anyway.

Well, you have to keep in mind that 'asking for ~500 million $' is not what's actually happening. It's not as though Tesla is asking for a gigantic check from the state. They're likely looking for concessions in fees (taxes, etc) that Tesla would have to pay in the process of building and running the factory. In other words, they may be asking the state to take $500 million less than they would have if Joe American built the same factory. In the meantime, the state reaps much more than $500 million in additional income from the appearance of the factory.

 

[austinEV]

Look, Texas is the nation's #2 semiconductor employer. I would argue that for skilled employees, you are talking about semiconductor workers, both engineers and operators.

Texas is the nations No. 2 semiconductor job market after California, says industry trade group | Dallas Morning News

And Texas is a big and important market for Tesla. I am disappointed by all this "punish Texas" talk. The no-direct-sales thing is a non-factor for sales. And if you want it fixed, locating the factory there is a powerful incentive. In the long term though, the *temporary* lobbying power of some dying industry is just not going to be a big deal. Locating the factory near a large pool of skilled workers and potential customers should be the focus.

Plus it would allow tesla to be anchored in the reddest and bluest of states. If someone at TM were to take ya'lls advice and say "we didn't locate in texas because they are backwards redstate knuckleheads" they would make TM an enemy of the right, something they have largely avoided since paying back the DOE loan and creating jobs in a noisy fashion.

 

[bollar]

Look Texas is the nation's #2 semiconductor employer. I would argue that for skilled employees, you are talking about semiconductor workers, both engineers and operators.

Texas is the nations No. 2 semiconductor job market after California, says industry trade group | Dallas Morning News

View attachment 56245

Having moved to Texas from California myself, why don't we just keep this our little secret.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I am reminded of Elon's comments about how they are trying to avoid moving the molecules as much as possible. To me it would seem that it would be far better to stick the factory in NV or CA just because of the proximity to Fremont over anywhere else. Maybe when they make their second auto factory in the US it will be worthwhile to have one of those other states have a factory as well. I will be shocked if TX gets it for that reason alone.

The big cost of transport is loading and unloading -- once it's on a train, the extra miles don't add much cost. Extra miles aren't free, but not enough to make or break a decision.

 

[Jack6591]

The Port of Stockton has a deepwater ship channel. The ability to ship battery packs directly to Europe and all points east cannot be underestimated.

 

[Cattledog]

I am reminded of Elon's comments about how they are trying to avoid moving the molecules as much as possible. To me it would seem that it would be far better to stick the factory in NV or CA just because of the proximity to Fremont over anywhere else. Maybe when they make their second auto factory in the US it will be worthwhile to have one of those other states have a factory as well. I will be shocked if TX gets it for that reason alone.

However those molecules, more of them actually, have to get to the plant in the form of raw materials. There's a lot of speculation that some materials may be sourced from California or Nevada, however right now I believe the majority of the raw materials come from overseas. So access to a port is desirable. Stockton area is very close, Reno OK. San Antonio is closer to a port than Reno.

 

[bollar]

The Port of Stockton has a deepwater ship channel. The ability to ship battery packs directly to Europe and all points east cannot be underestimated.

This is going to start getting silly, if it hasn't already:

The Port of Galveston has a deepwater ship channel. The ability to ship battery packs directly to Europe and all points east without passing through the Panama Canal or Cape Horn cannot be underestimated.

 

[chickensevil]

If they are expecting 40% in Asia and only 20% in the EU seems to me like it would be a better call to put the port access near your 1st or 2nd largest customer base... Not your bottom. Although if they really do plan to build a factory in China first it might actually be better to pick the Atlantic side for your port access... Unless as you say most of your raw materials are being sourced over seas... Then it would likely be best to go with whichever aide would help the most there.

Honestly I think most all of their materials will be found here in NA. Lithium. Check. Nickel. Check. Cobalt? Carbon? (Either synthetic or natural) Check. What else is there? Aluminum? Check.