Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[SteveG3]

He did mention that the factory would rely heavily on solar for power. I expect Solar City will be announced as a partner. Also, Google is not so crazy, they have a sort of venture capital arm that invests in many clean-tech projects.

Have a look at these comments from Adam Jonas. What he describes happening for some investors is exactly what's been going on for me the past couple of weeks. There is a very real possibility that Tesla chooses to expand into a vastly larger opportunity than an EV company. Again, if all cars are to be EVs rather than ICE in coming decades... it will take a couple hundred of these giga factories.

We don't know if Tesla is going to decide to go from EV manufacturer to much larger opportunity in energy storage, but as Jonas points out it's like a call option we get holding shares in Tesla. I find his analogy to Amazon as to the expanding possibilities is well chosen.

Tesla Motors: The Next Amazon? - Stocks To Watch - Barrons.com

"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas and team ask if Tesla is more than a car company:

Tesla’s plans for a ‘Giga’ battery factory starting to get more attention as a call option on the economics of mass produced batteries and the business model. We found the final sentence of Tesla’s prepared remarks on its plans to build the worlds’ largest lithium ion battery factory intriguing: “It is a massive, massive opportunity to push the cost curve down to levels people haven’t even dreamed of yet.” We find investors are starting to seriously ask if Tesla can be much more than just a car manufacturer. If this company can establish a technological and scale lead in every storage and infrastructure, might we one day look back at Tesla’s humble beginnings as a car maker much as Amazon (AMZN) began as a book seller?"



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[Dave EV]

Nissan has enough capacity to build batteries for 150k LEAFS in Smyrna Tenn.

While they may have the room to expand production to that level there, LEAF production is currently limited by battery production, specifically it appears that the separator material takes a while to ramp up supply. Right now they have the capacity to build around 2700-3000 LEAFs/month or around 35k LEAFs/packs/year.

Of course, this is only production out of Smryna - combined with Japan and UK production the number is probably around double that at this point.

 

[TSLAopt]

Have a look at these comments from Adam Jonas. What he describes happening for some investors is exactly what's been going on for me the past couple of weeks. There is a very real possibility that Tesla chooses to expand into a vastly larger opportunity than an EV company. Again, if all cars are to be EVs rather than ICE in coming decades... it will take a couple hundred of these giga factories.

We don't know if Tesla is going to decide to go from EV manufacturer to much larger opportunity in energy storage, but as Jonas points out it's like a call option we get holding shares in Tesla. I find his analogy to Amazon as to the expanding possibilities is well chosen.

Tesla Motors: The Next Amazon? - Stocks To Watch - Barrons.com

"Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas and team ask if Tesla is more than a car company:

Tesla’s plans for a ‘Giga’ battery factory starting to get more attention as a call option on the economics of mass produced batteries and the business model. We found the final sentence of Tesla’s prepared remarks on its plans to build the worlds’ largest lithium ion battery factory intriguing: “It is a massive, massive opportunity to push the cost curve down to levels people haven’t even dreamed of yet.” We find investors are starting to seriously ask if Tesla can be much more than just a car manufacturer. If this company can establish a technological and scale lead in every storage and infrastructure, might we one day look back at Tesla’s humble beginnings as a car maker much as Amazon (AMZN) began as a book seller?"



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I saw this too, its quite incredible and something many of us Bulls always thought could happen...that Tesla would do much more than just build cars (ie. Superchargers, energy storage, etc.).

i can't wait for this announcement.

 

[palmer_md]

I love the idea of a Tesla, Panasonic, and Google (or just Larry Page bankrolling) team up. You just have an enormous cutting edge industrial team with that.

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Are candlesticks good for making batteries?

No but there is going to be a lot of property available at Candlestick Point in south San Francisco next year.

 

[chickensevil]

Those analyst reviews from the barron's post reminds me of the quote: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."


For some they are finally coming around to the winning part, I think for the automakers they are still in the "laughing" portion of this. It is certainly an exciting time to be part of Tesla. Either they will become spectacularly amazing in every regard or they will spectacularly fail. Either way, it should be a pretty good show!

 

[Discoducky]

Have their been any other announcements of late about providing more battery supply from the likes of Sony, Samsung or Panasonic? It seems like there should at least one other company seeing the huge demand increase that is coming, not just from Tesla but from the increase in the amount of phones being shipped. As in iPhone shipments to China for example.

I find it hard to believe that Tesla is the only company that is or has plans in the near or mid-term (5 year) future to build more battery supply. If not, I don't have enough TSLA.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Have their been any other announcements of late about providing more battery supply from the likes of Sony, Samsung or Panasonic?

AFAIK, there was only old news of Tesla talking with Samsung and LG. I don't think they talked with Sony (AFAIK Sony doesn't make high capacity cells, largest is 2600mAh, not the 3000mAh+ that Tesla is looking for).

 

[Discoducky]

AFAIK, there was only old news of Tesla talking with Samsung and LG. I don't think they talked with Sony (AFAIK Sony doesn't make high capacity cells, largest is 2600mAh, not the 3000mAh+ that Tesla is looking for).

Thanks and I'm wondering if any company (not just Tesla) has made any announcements or has any plans. For instance, Samsung is selling way more phones this year than last and I'd imagine they are going to need more supply as the price starts to go up from such an increase in demand.

Is there somewhere to track the overall price of batteries like a commodities market? (I really have no idea, but I'm starting to become very interested in this)

 

[SteveG3]

Have their been any other announcements of late about providing more battery supply from the likes of Sony, Samsung or Panasonic? It seems like there should at least one other company seeing the huge demand increase that is coming, not just from Tesla but from the increase in the amount of phones being shipped. As in iPhone shipments to China for example.

I find it hard to believe that Tesla is the only company that is or has plans in the near or mid-term (5 year) future to build more battery supply. If not, I don't have enough TSLA.

Perhaps it will be Samsung supplying batteries to... Samsung.

Linked below is an article that speculates about Samsung possibly entering the car business. It's based on a blog where the Wall Street Journal uncovered some auto related patents, pertaining to engines, tires... Samsung responded that they are not looking to enter auto business. They may be simply telling it like it is, or protecting their strategic interests.

IF Samsung is interested in going to the auto business, given their $30 billion or so of cash, existing battery business, they'd certainly be an attractive giga battery partner. It would be a bit tricky though to work this out while Tesla is so dependent on Panasonic the next 3 years. I guess it's possible both could be partners.

Tesla Watch Out: Samsung To Build Electric Cars?

 

[Grendal]

Since the giga-factory will be a joint venture between a number of different companies, will those companies create a new business entity or simply a joint venture under their own names? What would make the most sense?

Non sequitur giga factory thought: What form factor will the factory make? 18650's? Something specific for Tesla?

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Non sequitur giga factory thought: What form factor will the factory make? 18650's? Something specific for Tesla?

I would assume that Elon is smart enough to not limit the factory to one design. It will probably start off with the 18650's, but be capable of producing other form factors as well. I think Elon's previously said that a 2x bigger battery than the 18650 format would be ideal so maybe they'll do that for the Gen-III already when they go for a custom battery factory.

 

[VolkerP]

IIRC Elon mentioned that half the number of cells would be about right. They could do by going from 18650 to 28650 form factor (28mm diameter). This gives factor 2.4 for gross cell volume. The Tesla battery is designed so that every cell can shed heat effectively by small volume, steel casing and direct contact to the coolant loops. If the 28650 form factor can fulfil thermal design limits too, they are good to go this way.
Best would be to have flexible cell producing machinery.

 

[chickensevil]

I am sure we will get a ton of this information at the shareholder's meeting in February... We need a time machine to just jump forward a month haha!

This is cool, I never heard that comment about switching to 28650. I would assume their factory will be tooled for the one type (whatever that is). This is why they went to the 18650s in the first place, it was already the most highly used form factor so it was easy to tell Panasonic to build them a custom battery that fit the tooling of their machines. I would not think you could just easily switch that over to a different size.

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http://evnewsreport.com/tag/tesla-generation-iii/

Pretty nice article talking about the very real decline in oil production and also the ramp up of Tesla. Because of the date of the article it does not include the recent news about the giga-factory, but thought it was helpful information all the same.

Most interesting is that oil production is getting harder and hard to get. Even Shale Oil is not going to last very long. If Brazil, the most recent of the oil producers is having trouble, this does not bode well at all for us. I go back to sustainability here more than environmental impacts, because we may not be able to last another 100 years at this rate.

 

[SteveG3]

contents of post moved... just realized I was responding to Mario on a point he made but it was on a different thread. oops.

 

[JRP3]

I I would not think you could just easily switch that over to a different size.

Some of the production line machines have no connection to size or format, others are adjustable to some degree. They should be able to specify the best size range for their needs, which may no longer be the 18650 format.

 

[Pastamosta]

Since Elon mentioned the giga factory being US based and solar powered, Western Lithium (WLCDF) could be an interesting opportunity for Tesla to source raw lithium in three to four years (close logistically and WLCDF predicts it will be able to mine lithium cheaper than its competitors). Does anyone have input on this idea or other investment possibilities?

 

[AudubonB]

I'd pass on any resource company that has no product, but who pays its 3 senior execs (out of a total of 16 employees) $869,000 in annual salary - not even considering bennies. To me, they fit the classic case of what I call miners who mine Wall St.

If I were to play lithium - and I've not owned this stock since the 1990s - I'd buy Soquimich. SQM on the Big Board. It's a real company with real product and a real history (not all of it good). The point here is that you truly can evaluate its worth. But you may prefer to have a US, rather than Chilean, company in your portfolio.

 

[772]

I'm no expert, but I thought the bigger portion of metals cost in the batteries was due to cobalt and not lithium. If that's true, that would make lithium not exactly the best way to play the 'giga factory'

 

[AudubonB]

Whether that is or is not the case does not necessarily bear to your conclusion, 772. There are several reasons for this; one immediate counterargument that comes to mind is that there does not exist - to my recollection - any company that is cobalt-specific. And if it were, it would be a Repub. of Congo firm:scared:

Here: to take a "what's best/most leveraged" argument to its ludicrous extreme, a fine answer could be: Find/Determine/Correctly Guess exactly where the plant will be located, and buy one (oh, what the hay...ten!) acres of that land. Then you get to make a zillion percent unlocking it to TMInc. So....land - schmland. It's all over the place, right? Ah: but not the properly leveraged land.

Do you follow that?

 

[772]

I... actually did. :smile:

I already said I'm no expert from the metals side... but as for picking out real estate, well that's easy. All I need is a map and a few darts! :tongue: