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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

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I really recommend watching the last minute of the link DiscoD posted above... there is a lot new there.

My mental battery is close to bricking, but in that minute

1. Elon is excited/confident about the giga factory like I've never heard him sound before

2. Says he'll talk about it in the Q4 earnings call

3. The way he says "plans" sounds to me like he means "We have plans for x, y, z..." not "we have a bunch of plans we're trying to make a decision among"

4. yes, he says deciding which state... what's quite new, he says he thinks in the next month or so that will be decided.

5. Partners... the way he refers to this, I hear more than one partner, I also hear he thinks it's close to a commitment by multiple parties.

all that in just the last minute or so of the interview.
 
Musk stated that there will be other companies (plural) involved with the Giga Factory. I suspect that GM, Nissan, Panasonic, and Samsung will want a piece of this Giga pie.

Nissan has enough capacity to build batteries for 150k LEAFS in Smyrna Tenn.


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Illinios needs the jobs.

Every other state has full employment.
 
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Musk stated that there will be other companies (plural) involved with the Giga Factory. I suspect that GM, Nissan, Panasonic, and Samsung will want a piece of this Giga pie.

I think of it differently. The giga-factory is intended to be full cycle. Tesla works metal and builds batteries, but they don't make cells or recycle. Tesla needs partners with expertise in the different parts of the process.
 
Elon seemed really happy and confident about it... before the battery factory seemed like an albatross.

I think google (or Larry Page individually) is possible. Batteries may be a massive business in the coming decades. If EVs completely replaced ICE, it would take 200 of these Giga Factories. Page wants to see these changes happen. According to Steve Jurveston, Page has told him he sometimes thinks the best thing he could do with his money would be to leave it to Elon. I think Page meant when he dies- perhaps some of the money could come under Elon's stewardship sooner (think Warren Buffett putting money in Bill Gates stewardship). When Jurveston asked Page why he said (according to Jurveston) because Elon is doing the things I want to see done.

I know this may sound crazy, but Elon seemed to be looking forward to sharing the plan and getting it going. He didn't seem that way at all on the last earnings call.
 
Elon seemed really happy and confident about it... before the battery factory seemed like an albatross.

I think google (or Larry Page individually) is possible. Batteries may be a massive business in the coming decades. If EVs completely replaced ICE, it would take 200 of these Giga Factories. Page wants to see these changes happen. According to Steve Jurveston, Page has told him he sometimes thinks the best thing he could do with his money would be to leave it to Elon. I think Page meant when he dies- perhaps some of the money could come under Elon's stewardship sooner (think Warren Buffett putting money in Bill Gates stewardship). When Jurveston asked Page why he said (according to Jurveston) because Elon is doing the things I want to see done.

I know this may sound crazy, but Elon seemed to be looking forward to sharing the plan and getting it going. He didn't seem that way at all on the last earnings call.

Google as a partner, I agree!! They've been buying up a ton of robotics lately too which has a lot of synergies here...
Maybe Panasonic or Samsung too for their battery chemistry expertise??
 
TSLAopt good point re robotics. And Google's experimentation with self-driving cars shows at least some interest in the car business. If they have further aspirations to actually make cars, Elon would likely have know this.

In the interview, Elon did say partners. One battery company makes sense (Panasonic being the front runner)... more than one battery company partner doesn't seem as likely to me. You go outside of battery companies for partner #2 and who are the candidates? Daimler? Toyota? Beyond those two, any one else less a dark horse than Google with it's bundles of cash and Sergei and Larry's close connection to Elon?
 
What about Panasonic and Solar City? Solar City needs batteries for their new battery back-up program.

And we all need competition. I'm eager to see what Solar City ends up with for battery back-up for home use. My mental model for the art of the possible for home energy storage, using Lithium-Ion, are now these folks:
Balqon Electric Vehicle Manufacturer

$12k for a 34 kWh unit - that sounds quite usable to me.
 
That's an amazing price, though with Balqon I'm always suspicious. They've been a bit sketchy about actually delivering products in the past. Also the specs use lead acid terms for charging, "bulk", "absorption", and "float", instead of "constant current", "constant voltage", and you don't want to float lithium cells since that just keeps them at a constant high SOC, which shortens the life. Plus it's odd that they configured it for only 48 Volts which has to be stepped up.
 
Elon seemed really happy and confident about it... before the battery factory seemed like an albatross.

I think google (or Larry Page individually) is possible. Batteries may be a massive business in the coming decades. If EVs completely replaced ICE, it would take 200 of these Giga Factories. Page wants to see these changes happen. According to Steve Jurveston, Page has told him he sometimes thinks the best thing he could do with his money would be to leave it to Elon. I think Page meant when he dies- perhaps some of the money could come under Elon's stewardship sooner (think Warren Buffett putting money in Bill Gates stewardship). When Jurveston asked Page why he said (according to Jurveston) because Elon is doing the things I want to see done.

I know this may sound crazy, but Elon seemed to be looking forward to sharing the plan and getting it going. He didn't seem that way at all on the last earnings call.

I think they'd wanted to announce on the last earnings call and worked crazy hours to bring the deal to the table and it didn't happen. And I said at the time that I thought that was why they had so little news and sounded so, well, worn out.

And now they've had plenty of time to wrap up the details, get all the little soldiers lined up on the battlefield, think and rethink if there are mitigations in place for the potential risks. Heck yeah, he's excited. They probably found a few more ways to improve the deal in the last few months, too.