Well, it's good to get some clarity on the intention for rhe 30% outsourcing. So if this is just to keep Panasonic plants in Japan working, there are other wasy to do this.
For example this new home grid storage device could be manufactued entirely in Japan. It really quite within Panasonics wheelhouse to make a finished electronic good. Have we heard anything about where these will be made?
Certainly as Tesla starts to make cars in Europe and Asia the Japanese supply could be directed there. But I kinds like the idea of building up astationary storage market to absorb capacity with slightly older technology. This sort of option improves capital effeciency. For example, if you have a brand new technology, build a new factory. Five years later, you've got a next generation technology. You could either upgrade your first factory or build a new one. If you've got a strong stationary market for the first factory, then you can make more off your initial investment by diverting its output to the stationary market and opening up a new factory with the latest tech. Five years later, you've got a new third generation tech. At this point the ten-year-old equipment in the first plant may well be due for replacement, so it makes sense to upgrade.
This does lead me to wonder what density of cell the home grid storage device will use. DemandLogic used 200 Wh/kg, but the Model S is using 250 Wh/kg. I wonder if the new device will use these higher density cells. Next up, the Model X gets say 300 Wh/kg cells. Perhaps the Model S won't get a range upgrade for many years simply because it would cost too much to upgrade 250 Wh/kg at this point in time. This could be why it is important both to build out the GF for 300 Wh/kg production while advancing a storage product to absorb the surplus 250 Wh/kg capacity. Once this surplus is absorbed or upgraded, then the Model S can get new batteries. So we can only hope the stationary market takes off as that will enable Tesla to advance the technology for cars at top speed.
