Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[ecarfan]

Randy Carlson
Tesla: Gigafactory Tipping Point
Link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/296...ete:2b0fbf9f68a85cd10d3ac3a8e7d216b0&uprof=44

That is an interesting perspective. I was struck by this text:
" Each of these businesses - electric cars, road trip recharging, grid storage - could bring Tesla several tens of billions in revenue and many billions in annual profit, should Tesla gain a major player position in the respective market. Success in even one of these businesses would deliver valuation far beyond the current price."

As enthusiastic as I am about Tesla's long-term prospects, I do not see "road trip recharging" as a revenue stream for the foreseeable future.

 

[jhm]

That is an interesting perspective. I was struck by this text:
" Each of these businesses - electric cars, road trip recharging, grid storage - could bring Tesla several tens of billions in revenue and many billions in annual profit, should Tesla gain a major player position in the respective market. Success in even one of these businesses would deliver valuation far beyond the current price."

As enthusiastic as I am about Tesla's long-term prospects, I do not see "road trip recharging" as a revenue stream for the foreseeable future.

I agree recharging not being a revenue stream. Actually, do not see it as a revenue stream for anyone after about ten years. Electricity is too cheap to sell-per-charge. Rather it can be much more valuable as a marketing inducement. As retail becomes increasingly virtualized, marketers will pay a premium for marketing inducements that can draw customers to specific locations. Right now that is exactly what propels the Destination Charger program. Hotels and other destinations are willing to provide free charging as an amenity or inducement for customers to patronize their business. An apt analogy is free wifi at cafes. It's provided free because it attracts customers. So my prediction is that within ten years free charging will be ubiquitous. Of course, there is room for companies like Tesla to innovate charging solutions that businesses will pay to provide to their customers.

 

[palmer_md]

It can be a revenue stream if another manufacturer decides to put supercharger hardware into their vehicle. They'd get possibly $2500 per car that has access to the network. I think that eventually some other car company will opt into the Supercharger network.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I agree recharging not being a revenue stream. Actually, do not see it as a revenue stream for anyone after about ten years. Electricity is too cheap to sell-per-charge. Rather it can be much more valuable as a marketing inducement. As retail becomes increasingly virtualized, marketers will pay a premium for marketing inducements that can draw customers to specific locations. Right now that is exactly what propels the Destination Charger program. Hotels and other destinations are willing to provide free charging as an amenity or inducement for customers to patronize their business. An apt analogy is free wifi at cafes. It's provided free because it attracts customers. So my prediction is that within ten years free charging will be ubiquitous. Of course, there is room for companies like Tesla to innovate charging solutions that businesses will pay to provide to their customers.

That is why Tesla is not using this model :smile:. They are having revenue by charging a one time fee.

I think that by the time other automobile manufacturers decide to build compelling electric cars, rather than just compliance cars, they will fall so far behind, that the only sensible way for them to make a switch (and stay in the business at all) would be to license technology from TM, especially because by that time TM will have global SC network that allows convenient road tripping. Buying into the SC network would most likely require a one time fee, similar to the current model.

If Google and/or Apple decide to enter the automotive space, it will make a lot of sense for them to buy into the SC network as well. Once again, one time, per car fee model can be used by Tesla to obtain a revenue stream.

 

[renim]

It can be a revenue stream if another manufacturer decides to put supercharger hardware into their vehicle. They'd get possibly $2500 per car that has access to the network. I think that eventually some other car company will opt into the Supercharger network.

If the other manufacturers created alternate standards to compete with the globally consistent and free Chademo standard, why would they be motivated to pay Tesla $2500, when they don't even want a free standard?

They (automotive SAE Combo backers - don't want EVs, they sure don't want to pay someone else for use of charging standard, PHEVs will suit them just fine.)

I could envisage Renault or the Chinese using Tesla SC, and higher cost cars like Koenigsegg etc

 

[32no]

Kimbal Musk just tweeted/instagramed multiple pictures of the Gigafactory. In one of his captions, he mentions that Phase 1 is 1.7 million square feet. This is much larger than the results of the speculative calculations that some of us were doing earlier.

 

[RobStark]

Randy Carlson

Tesla: Gigafactory Tipping Point

Link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/296...ete:2b0fbf9f68a85cd10d3ac3a8e7d216b0&uprof=44

Tesla's current cell cost is believed to be less than $160/kWh. That corresponds to a unit cost of $1.95 for each 18650 cell capable of storing 12.2Wh.


http://articles.sae.org/12833/

The Panasonic cells purchased by Tesla are specifically designed for the automaker and feature a Tesla-patented vent system within the end cap. Battery supplier sources who spoke anonymously estimate Tesla’s cell cost per kW·h to be less than $160.



I have never seen a quote this low.

 

[jhm]

You guys are right about other EV makers potentially buying into the Supercharger Network. This could be for a fee like $2500 per car or for an agreement to install and maintain a certain number of stations and stalls per 1000 new vehicles sold. In the later case, money would not pass hands from SC partner to Tesla, but the network would be expanded and paid for to the benefit of Tesla's customers. But to underscore my thesis, in either case you have businesses supporting nominally free charging because it creates value for their customers and helps sell more product. So this is what I call marketing value. Right now, I believe Tesla is the leading company extracting marketing value off of nominally free charging both with Superchargers and Destination Charging. So they are leading the way, and I am merely extrapolating how many businesses will eventually want to tap this marketing value for their own customers.
BTW, if Tesla ever wanted to hire me, I would love to develop a whole marketing program essentially to make charging free, fast and ubiquitous for everyone. So Elon, send me a PM, and we can talk.

 

[wk057]

I'll just leave this here

Gigafactory Drone Pics

 

[tom66]

I'm confused by "Gigafactory pilot" and 20% of full size. Are we seeing the full size GF that Tesla were talking about in the initial PDF, or just what they can get online by 2017?

 

[ScepticMatt]

I'm confused by "Gigafactory pilot" and 20% of full size. Are we seeing the full size GF that Tesla were talking about in the initial PDF, or just what they can get online by 2017?

the latter

 

[tom66]

Cool, so it will be interesting to see the final factory. I would guess they intend to bring the rest online by 2020 or as orders reflect, wonder how they will manage upgrading the existing facility without too much disruption.

 

[mpt]

Tesla Gigafactory progress in jeopardy? Maybe? Tesla Fiercely Denies Rumors of Gigafactory Slowdown With Gigafactory Field Trip for Board of Directors - Transport Evolved

I looks like it's inconclusive as to why the factory is quiet - perhaps a supply hitch?

 

[uselesslogin]

Tesla Gigafactory progress in jeopardy? Maybe? Tesla Fiercely Denies Rumors of Gigafactory Slowdown With Gigafactory Field Trip for Board of Directors - Transport Evolved

I looks like it's inconclusive as to why the factory is quiet - perhaps a supply hitch?

It looks inconclusive as to if the factory is quiet. That is such a weird article. First it says they did the March 3rd field trip to counter negative press. Did Tesla get a heads up from the press that the negative press was coming on the 6th? Second, in digging through the links I see a photo from January with a full parking lot, I found one from February 26th with a not-so-full parking lot. And now the recent one with also a not-so-full parking lot. The one thing I think I see in the 3 photos is progress. The frame seems to keep getting bigger. So am I missing something here? Can someone lay photos together from different dates to show a slowdown in progress of any sort?

 

[mpt]

Bob Tregilus is on the ground there, I'd say his input, well, sense of activity, is probably the most compelling piece of evidence. He's photographed empty parking lots in the mid-day. Just seems like a tell of something.

 

[JRP3]

It could be simple ebb and flow of construction. That's certainly the way many projects around here seem to progress. A lot of activity for weeks, then days/weeks of nothing, then activity again. Maybe they are waiting on key components.

- - - Updated - - -

Article by Randy Carlson on SA with comparative pictures he took. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2982946-teslas-big-battery-building-doom-or-progress

End of Jan

This Sat

 

[Joel]

BYD is ramping up production:

China's BYD takes aim at Tesla in battery factory race - Yahoo Finance

 

[jhm]

BYD is ramping up production:

China's BYD takes aim at Tesla in battery factory race - Yahoo Finance

Good to see this aspiration. They author tries to make an equivalence to the Sparks Gigafactory at 35 GWH cell capacity, but fails to recognize the full 50 GWh supply chain capacity.

Even so, if BYD can grow capacity 6 GWh per year, that would be a tremendous advance for the industry.

I also wonder if we'll see the stationary storage market heat up. The rest of the auto industry is doing little to create the demand needed to rapidly and massively scale up the battery industry. If the stationary market takes off, that could drive massive scale up, production efficiency, and technology advancement. This would build up an industry that is capable of supporting the transition to EV dominance in the auto industry, even before automakers are fully committed to this path. Thus, stationary can prime the market for sustainable transport.

 

[jhm]

Tesla's gigafactory is coming together, thanks to satellite images

New satellite image. Hard to tell how this compares with other recent images. It seems the construction is much longer.

 

[austinEV]

Won't be operational until 2020?