I'm really curious what is going on. A photo from Germany showed only 25 powerwall in boxes. Australia is not really shipping either, as it is referred to as a "trial" by the vendor.
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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
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I'm really curious what is going on. A photo from Germany showed only 25 powerwall in boxes. Australia is not really shipping either, as it is referred to as a "trial" by the vendor.
PowerWalls are a very small part of Tesla Energy. Each PowerPack is 14x larger. It also takes a while for the residential side to sort out, including the availability of the inverters. Even if the PowerWall was widely available, the residential inverters to support them are not yet widely available. By summer, this situation probably changes dramatically. In the meantime, PowerPack is really where the action lies.
duke_of_ev
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Article on Seeking Alphaa out BMW i3 being dumped on a ride sharing service spun as though it was some kind of competitive leap forwards for BMW by someone presumably pretending to be Long TSLA.
Article gives some encouraging and credible statistical trends about younger people abandoning ICE manufacturers for mobility services where cost per mile comes down to lifetime average energy, amortisation and maintenance costs and relies heavily upon OTA connectivity to add value which ultimately precludes non EVs - and if the truth be known, precludes non OTA network connected EVs as time goes on.
Yesterday I was speaking at a conference for Cleantechnica and a fellow speaker presented his Tesla hailing and rental business and an app powered at the back end by a data feed licensed from Tesla for fleet status monitoring and dispatch. The author of the Seeking Alpha piece is simply confused if he or she imagines BMW has stolen a march on Tesla. Ther has been a 100+ vehicle OTA connected hailed and dispatched Tesla rental fleet in Las Vegas for two or more years now and the BMWs in 2016 are still relying on cell phones and a BMW fleet operator has no idea where his cars are without use of a tracking service (like LoJack or similar) and no idea of their status because BMWs can't be sold with an OTA network because car dealers won't allow it.
I think the problem with the article is that potential competitors like BMW - and the shorts that think their efforts to compete matter a damn, simply have no real grasp of how far ahead Tesla actually is. In investment parlance this is basically just a due dilligence failure at this point.
Lack of adequate due dilligence is one of the biggest possible and least considered investing risks one could fall foul of when deciding between going long or short a stock and to what extent from zero to margined and/or leveraged.
Article gives some encouraging and credible statistical trends about younger people abandoning ICE manufacturers for mobility services where cost per mile comes down to lifetime average energy, amortisation and maintenance costs and relies heavily upon OTA connectivity to add value which ultimately precludes non EVs - and if the truth be known, precludes non OTA network connected EVs as time goes on.
Yesterday I was speaking at a conference for Cleantechnica and a fellow speaker presented his Tesla hailing and rental business and an app powered at the back end by a data feed licensed from Tesla for fleet status monitoring and dispatch. The author of the Seeking Alpha piece is simply confused if he or she imagines BMW has stolen a march on Tesla. Ther has been a 100+ vehicle OTA connected hailed and dispatched Tesla rental fleet in Las Vegas for two or more years now and the BMWs in 2016 are still relying on cell phones and a BMW fleet operator has no idea where his cars are without use of a tracking service (like LoJack or similar) and no idea of their status because BMWs can't be sold with an OTA network because car dealers won't allow it.
I think the problem with the article is that potential competitors like BMW - and the shorts that think their efforts to compete matter a damn, simply have no real grasp of how far ahead Tesla actually is. In investment parlance this is basically just a due dilligence failure at this point.
Lack of adequate due dilligence is one of the biggest possible and least considered investing risks one could fall foul of when deciding between going long or short a stock and to what extent from zero to margined and/or leveraged.
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The issue there is the PowerWall is only available in "high voltage" style. If they could configure the batteries for 48V then there are many inverters out there that can handle that as a buy/sell/standby/hybrid configuration. perhaps the Fronius model is cheaper and simpler but in the past 300-ish homes used in the earlier trial of the 10kWh box, they used Schneider's Conext XW model. The newer Conext XW+ is even more capable. There is a feature of High Voltage that is a benefit and I think it is smaller and less costly higher-voltage converters/inverters.
Here is what happened to 100 Teslas in Las Vegas.
Now defunct, what happened to downtown startup Shift’s 100 Teslas?
I have a 48v inverter and it has no where the efficiency of high voltage inverters. 48v is a dinosaur of the lead acid age. It will take time for the features found in hybrid inverters like Outback and others to show up in high voltage versions.
Offer both. That way, off-grid existing homes could replace aging LA batteries with an 48V Li-Ion option. Then for those who want to use other brands (non-Fronius) they may be able to install powerwalls using 48V setups like the Conext XW+. Then also offer the HV options for the Fronius as well. Unless the partnership is exclusive - wouldn't it be nice to see two options available? Some off grid homes use low-voltage electrical systems like 48V. But for homes which require 120V and 240V devices, including high-surge pumps (sump pump or water well pump) then high voltage solutions are definitely better. With the existence of so many 48V systems out there the ability to retrofit the battery bank alone is a viable market.
Any good information from VICE's Future of Energy episode with Elon and the Gigafactory? No HBO access for me
Tesla was a relatively small part in the episode. Elon answered a few usual questions about climate change and a sustainable energy future, there was a quick test ride for the interviewer in a P85D, and not more than a few brief scenes of Powerwalls and stacks of modules inside the Gigafactory like the pictures already posted on Electrek. Nothing groundbreaking that I saw. The footage also seemed older, because at least during the test drive part, Elon said the 0-60 was 3.2 seconds (i.e., pre-Ludicrous).
FYI, HBO Now offers a free month preview if you don't mind taking the time to sign up.
I have been tracking gigafactory employment for a few months. The past two months have shown a significant uptick in hiring -- a roughly 20% increase per month. Currently employing at least 104.
Panasonic has not increased its gigafactory headcount much at all. Currently, Panasonic has 25+ employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory).
Panasonic has not increased its gigafactory headcount much at all. Currently, Panasonic has 25+ employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory).
This blog on motortrend has some pics and info on GigaFactory (though it is mostly focused on Model 3 that they took there to take pictures - skip to update 5 for a trip to the roof of the GF:
http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesl...id=723167132293296133&adbpl=tw&adbpr=25383000
http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesl...id=723167132293296133&adbpl=tw&adbpr=25383000
Panasonic's preference seems to be to provide batteries from Japan for now. This could be due to cost. Or it could be that the new gigafactory production will not be cylinders.
They did hide the machines during the tour. This could be simply to not confirm their battery production plans. But it could also be that experts would recognize a shift in battery type.
I don't expect a Tesla Battery Miracle. But I do expect Tesla to switch to the pouch format if that type pencils out to a lower cost.
Pouches: not a chance. Tesla likes the cylinders for thermal management and fault isolation.
Just thinking of a reason for the silence/slowness of gigafactory development. The most likely reason is simply that Panasonic's current preference is to manufacture cells in Japan.
But Tesla didn't choose cylinders. Cylinders chose Tesla. I think that it is extremely unlikely that the germans will have a problem cooling pouches (or similar) on the large battery packs of 200 mile plus vehicles. I expect 800v high amp systems and large cell size without any cooling problems.
EV's have been done mostly "on the cheap": Nissan first foolishly sold EV to the desert southwest without cooling. Tesla pick the only lithium-ion format that they could afford. But those days are over. If Tesla has had great success at robotic assembly of cylinders and battery packs, then perhaps they will just use larger cylinders.
But something has changed with Tesla and batteries. I'm not concerned about cost/supply problems. I don't expect a formulation miracle. So I'm looking at format. "Bigger than AA cylinders" feels to me like the unambiguous result of years of research and planning by both companies.
A format switch for the M3 would look like the Gigafactory today being in no rush to produce cells.
Something has been going on. Perhaps just Panasonic's preference for manufacturing in Japan. Or perhaps Tesla limiting capital expenditures. Or perhaps a format switch for the M3.
A really doubt that Tesla believes that running $100K cars on a gazillion AA cells is state of the art. I really doubt that switching up a cell size is state of the art. I have no doubt that the germans will deliver 800v systems with high charge rates that have no thermal problems.
In the olden days little Tesla didn't choose cylinders. Cylinders chose Tesla.
Up to Q2 2016, Tesla and Panasonic combined have invested $ 508 million into the factory. That's of course only about 10% of the original $ 5 billion projection:
“In Q1 2016, Tesla reports an investment of $67 million, for a PTD investment of $380 million; PENA reports an investment of $64 million for a PTD investment of $128 million; or a combined PTD investment of $508 million through Q1 2016. That $131 million invested in Q1 2016 is 35% greater than the amount invested in Q4 2015.”
Panasonic doubled its investment in the Tesla Gigafactory during the last quarter [Q1 2016 Activity Report]
I don't see how these numbers add up with the new 500k cars (and some stationary battery) strategy plan by 2018 - assuming about 350-400k of those are Model3 cars and get the "local" batteries and cells from Nevada.
If it's so cheap to build the "largest battery plant in the world" then that's good news for all car makers and their battery suppliers looking into building more EVs. Car giants all have billions of $ available to invest each fiscal year.
I however doubt that's the case because Tesla and Panasonic still keep touting the original $ 4-5 billion for the "full" Gigafactory and the current footprint is much smaller (and yes, that's including the new internal floor design):
There also was a weekly average of 599 construction workers at the factory during the first quarter 2016 as Tesla is still expanding the plant, which is currently only 13.8% completed in term of footprint.
(same source as above).
“In Q1 2016, Tesla reports an investment of $67 million, for a PTD investment of $380 million; PENA reports an investment of $64 million for a PTD investment of $128 million; or a combined PTD investment of $508 million through Q1 2016. That $131 million invested in Q1 2016 is 35% greater than the amount invested in Q4 2015.”
Panasonic doubled its investment in the Tesla Gigafactory during the last quarter [Q1 2016 Activity Report]
I don't see how these numbers add up with the new 500k cars (and some stationary battery) strategy plan by 2018 - assuming about 350-400k of those are Model3 cars and get the "local" batteries and cells from Nevada.
If it's so cheap to build the "largest battery plant in the world" then that's good news for all car makers and their battery suppliers looking into building more EVs. Car giants all have billions of $ available to invest each fiscal year.
I however doubt that's the case because Tesla and Panasonic still keep touting the original $ 4-5 billion for the "full" Gigafactory and the current footprint is much smaller (and yes, that's including the new internal floor design):
There also was a weekly average of 599 construction workers at the factory during the first quarter 2016 as Tesla is still expanding the plant, which is currently only 13.8% completed in term of footprint.
(same source as above).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
So what's your point? They spent 10% of estimated total to build 13.8% of the project.* Sounds good to me. You also seem to ignore the fact that the footprint is capable of greater production than originally planned.
*Of course you always seem to forget the original estimate was a range between 4-5 billion.
So how does this small cap-ex of 10% of the total add up with the promised 30+% in battery/cell cost reduction plans AND the accelerated 2017-2020 Model3 ramp?
That was the point/question.
The press (invited to the Gigafactory recently) keeps talking about $5 billion, so there's still that $4.5 bn gap obviously. Orginally that gap was supposed to be closed by 2020 ("full" Gigafactory completed):
Elon Musk’s enormous, $5 billion factory is seriously ramping up production.
Inside the Gigafactory That Will Decide Tesla’s Fate
So which one is it? The promised $5 billion by 2020 or today's actual $500 million?
What about the new strategy for 2017-2018? Will the current floor space and investment be enough to support an output of 350-400k Model3 batteries by 2018 (and 100-200k by late 2017)?
And what about cost reductions? Is the current pilot plan enough or is the "full" GF needed?
PS: I'm ignoring stationary output here, just looking at car battery output.
That was the point/question.
The press (invited to the Gigafactory recently) keeps talking about $5 billion, so there's still that $4.5 bn gap obviously. Orginally that gap was supposed to be closed by 2020 ("full" Gigafactory completed):
Elon Musk’s enormous, $5 billion factory is seriously ramping up production.
Inside the Gigafactory That Will Decide Tesla’s Fate
So which one is it? The promised $5 billion by 2020 or today's actual $500 million?
What about the new strategy for 2017-2018? Will the current floor space and investment be enough to support an output of 350-400k Model3 batteries by 2018 (and 100-200k by late 2017)?
And what about cost reductions? Is the current pilot plan enough or is the "full" GF needed?
PS: I'm ignoring stationary output here, just looking at car battery output.
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