JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Or possibly some of the GOP are realizing their anti Tesla, anti EV stance they took in the last election didn't serve them well.
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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
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TSLA bears keep saying Tesla's competitors will match or beat Tesla's battery technology very soon and produce a mass-market EV that competes with Model E. But the CEO of Johnson Controls (described by CNBC as the largest maker of automotive batteries) says they can't for at least a decade.
CNBC interview:
"We're not as bullish on electric vehicles for at least a decade.... we see battery technology evolving but we're not sure electric vehicles will be the mass market product in the near future.
Q: Are you ramping up production in anticipation?
A: We're ramping up production for higher voltage batteries, so lithium ion batteries for micro-hybrid, [mild?] hybrid batteries, we're not as focused on electric vehicles.
Q: What about the cost factor? How are you going to bring down the cost of the battery packs?
A: i think that's exactly why we think that over a period of time cost will come down but the technology is really not there yet. Manufacturer scale is there, supply chain is in place, but we still have technological hurdles in order to get the cost down and the infrastructure. And cost relates not only to the form factors but the weight and distance and all these things are related. That's why it's still a decade away. We can can do it in the laboratory but not in real life yet."
Electric cars a decade away: CEO - CNBC
Elon says he can do it in three years.
CNBC interview:
"We're not as bullish on electric vehicles for at least a decade.... we see battery technology evolving but we're not sure electric vehicles will be the mass market product in the near future.
Q: Are you ramping up production in anticipation?
A: We're ramping up production for higher voltage batteries, so lithium ion batteries for micro-hybrid, [mild?] hybrid batteries, we're not as focused on electric vehicles.
Q: What about the cost factor? How are you going to bring down the cost of the battery packs?
A: i think that's exactly why we think that over a period of time cost will come down but the technology is really not there yet. Manufacturer scale is there, supply chain is in place, but we still have technological hurdles in order to get the cost down and the infrastructure. And cost relates not only to the form factors but the weight and distance and all these things are related. That's why it's still a decade away. We can can do it in the laboratory but not in real life yet."
Electric cars a decade away: CEO - CNBC
Elon says he can do it in three years.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Just a thought:
Would it be possible that both TM and Panasonic are now flirting with state legislatures not only on favorable laws & tax incentives but possibly on some capital contribution incentives from those states?
Let's assume for a moment that all four states have similar proposals. What would differentiate them from another? Geography & logistics are obvious considerations. However, those are variable costs and over time could be managed more or less.
If the overall cost of building GF is $4-5 billion and TM has committed $2 bil., then there is room for another $2-3 bil., right? Hence, some seed capital from the local legislature would definitely stand out.
I do realize that $2-3 bil. is a lot of money and most states are not in the position of being able to quickly meet such expectations. In fact, it's quite risky for them as well. On the other hand, in most cases the local legislature eventually comes forward to support construction of new stadiums for professional sports in a meaningful amount.
Aside from providing the land and infrastructure development, states could possibly contribute by forgoing sales taxes for N-years (i.e. compensating by revenue growth from overall increase of business activity).
What else can states do? -- Is it possible for states to forgo state income taxes for example? What would be other good examples?
Thanks!
Would it be possible that both TM and Panasonic are now flirting with state legislatures not only on favorable laws & tax incentives but possibly on some capital contribution incentives from those states?
Let's assume for a moment that all four states have similar proposals. What would differentiate them from another? Geography & logistics are obvious considerations. However, those are variable costs and over time could be managed more or less.
If the overall cost of building GF is $4-5 billion and TM has committed $2 bil., then there is room for another $2-3 bil., right? Hence, some seed capital from the local legislature would definitely stand out.
I do realize that $2-3 bil. is a lot of money and most states are not in the position of being able to quickly meet such expectations. In fact, it's quite risky for them as well. On the other hand, in most cases the local legislature eventually comes forward to support construction of new stadiums for professional sports in a meaningful amount.
Aside from providing the land and infrastructure development, states could possibly contribute by forgoing sales taxes for N-years (i.e. compensating by revenue growth from overall increase of business activity).
What else can states do? -- Is it possible for states to forgo state income taxes for example? What would be other good examples?
Thanks!
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I'd be extremely surprised if governments actually put money down. States aren't swimming in money, plus after all the crap Tesla had to take because of their government loan, I don't see them going there ever again.
I think it's going to be about tax incentives and maybe avoiding excessive environmental regulations.
Nice roundup of local news from the 4 states. Some inference that N-Nevada/Reno might be an early front runner. But some interesting tidbits in here
Teslas $5B Giga Battery Factory and Deep Politics in AZ, TX, NV and NM : Greentech Media
Teslas $5B Giga Battery Factory and Deep Politics in AZ, TX, NV and NM : Greentech Media
Battery supply chain warming up. Samsung sees EV market growing and makes a move. Samsung SDI acquires Cheil:
Samsung SDI to Buy Cheil for $3.3 Billion in Shares - Bloomberg
Samsung SDI to Buy Cheil for $3.3 Billion in Shares - Bloomberg
First Samsung SDI bought Cheil.
Now Daimler buying the rest of its Li-Tec battery joint venture from Evonik:
Daimler to Buy Out Partner Evonik in Li-Tec Battery Unit - Bloomberg
Folks are starting to position for battery cell production to support EVs.
Now Daimler buying the rest of its Li-Tec battery joint venture from Evonik:
Daimler to Buy Out Partner Evonik in Li-Tec Battery Unit - Bloomberg
Folks are starting to position for battery cell production to support EVs.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
pz1975
Active Member
Interesting quote from that article regarding cobalt. Looks like cobalt mining companies (especially North American if they source their cobalt from NA as planned) will be a good investment:
"Erin Chutters, the chief executive of Global Cobalt Corp., a mining company with plans to open a mine in Russia, says the "Gigafactory" demand, even if it reaches only a third of the anticipated size, would either lead to a sharp rise in cobalt prices or force several new mines to be opened."
I find it humorous that so many people seem to doubt the demand. I work in a small office of a small web application developer. We have a variety of cars like an '01 Bronco, '05 Scion TC, '07 BMW Z3, '03 Honda Accord, and a '12 Mercedes E-Class. The owners of each of these cars have expressed a moderate to strong interest in owning a Tesla. I would be surprised if half of us did not end up Tesla owners by the end of the decade. 500,000 cars by the end of the decade sounds ridiculously under-supplied. I own the '05 Scion TC. If a Tesla were not an option for me I would buy a Toyota Corolla. The Model S has gotten many people to make the step up to luxury from mass-market vehicles but the Model E will do so at a much larger scale in my opinion. The lower fuel costs come into play here as well as having a reason to get luxury. I really think there are a lot of tech guys who aren't interested in the luxury marketed by the German luxury brands and their competitors. However, Tesla is something they are willing to put their money into.
Edit: I think my thoughts can be summed up this way: With the ICE luxury cars you are buying luxury for luxury's sake. But with an electric luxury car you are buying luxury to support a cause. This is the key difference in my mind. I also think that cause might be stopping global warming but could also be the desire to see an end to energy dependence.
And to further that it doesn't leave out luxury for luxury's sake. For those who want only the best performance and luxury regardless of any causes the Tesla is a great option, especially performance wise.
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Can you share your thoughts, JRP? I am not sure what you meant by "Exactly".
One very important issue I don't understand: Tesla has been in business ten years now. Why haven't Tesla sourced the cells from multiple vendors already? There are several good cell makers in several different countries. What's the real reason for sole sourcing from Panasonic? I can't imagine price being the main issue when you can get three suppliers to bid. Is it because of IP? keeping secrets? Is Panasonic so much ahead of others in cell chemistry and quality? Quality can always be an issue, but that can be worked on over time with proper management.
In last Q3's conference call Elon said this about working with Panasonic: "Well, we are contributing a fair bit to the optimization of the cell for automotive purposes. In a lot of ways, the cell still looks the same from the outside because it is roughly the same 18 millimeter diameter by 65 millimeter long cell, we [may have] tiny changes like 18.3 or 18.4 millimeter, that type of thing, but the internal of the cell are evolving quite a lot and we are trying to be as helpful as we can with working with our partners, really our primary partner [is] Panasonic on that. I think Panasonic is doing a really great job and has really exciting things in the pipeline for future cell chemistry improvements and we want to bring those to fruition with them as [soon as] possible."
(transcript is from SA, some words may not be exactly correct)
Among other things, Tesla has a world class battery testing team. They can characterize any battery for power density and longevity better than anyone. At the very least, they test whatever the latest chemistry is from Panasonic and tell them if it is any better or not. Tesla also works on the module and pack structure, the engineering of which may very well fold back into design suggestions for the cell.
I don't know if Tesla actually works on the anode, cathode and electrolyte chemistry itself. Would be interesting to find out.
I don't know if Tesla actually works on the anode, cathode and electrolyte chemistry itself. Would be interesting to find out.
This article made me laugh when it quotes the president of VW saying "I don't quite get it," regarding why Tesla wants to build such a huge battery factory.
Wow, he really doesn't get it. He has no idea of the potential demand for a high quality 200+ mile range EV for under $40K. It is huge. Musk sees that and knows that batteries are the principal constraint to meeting that demand. He has to have his own source for them.
Wow, he really doesn't get it. He has no idea of the potential demand for a high quality 200+ mile range EV for under $40K. It is huge. Musk sees that and knows that batteries are the principal constraint to meeting that demand. He has to have his own source for them.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That was in reference to the quoted statement from the VW exec.
Price, energy density, life cycle, quality and consistency of product would be my guess. Tesla can't afford to be taking chances at this point while some other company figures out their quality control.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
adiggs
Well-Known Member
The quote from the article I found most telling was the end of the article:
"Erin Chutters, the chief executive of Global Cobalt Corp., a mining company with plans to open a mine in Russia, says the "Gigafactory" demand, even if it reaches only a third of the anticipated size, would either lead to a sharp rise in cobalt prices or force several new mines to be opened."The only question I have is whether they will actually be able to sell that many cars," she says. "Are there really enough people out there that will switch over?""
This is like a humorous version of the early Model S launch, when suppliers were editing Tesla's orders and shipping 10's or 100's of parts, instead of the 1000's that were being ordered. I remember somewhere along the line, a comment that some of the suppliers had looked at some source for estimated worldwide demand for Tesla in 2012 and seen something in the 100's, when Tesla was busy ordering parts for multiple 1000's of vehicles.
We seem to have that straightened out at the current order of magnitude of production and ramp.
And now it's like we're starting all over again as Tesla prepares (years in advance) to move to a new order of magnitude of production. My immediate reaction to that quote "will they be able to sell that many cars" - if they had batteries for 5,000K cars instead of 500K cars, they would make and sell that many (I know it's not that simple, but thinking that demand for 500k of Gen 3/ year is somehow going to be difficult - that's just unfathomable to me). The Model X reservation list is already impressively long - the Gen 3 reservation list all by its lonesome is going to start cutting into other companies shipping volumes as Tesla takes car buyers out of the market, and gets them to wait for Gen 3 to ship.
But JRP3 said it so much more succinctly than me. No, they just don't get it. But hey - at least they can say that much!
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