Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[sundaymorning]

Let’s hope something good can come out of this. Our allies should feel the same on protecting IP. Looks like Trump may get some backers.

Redirect Notice

Merkel and Macron (Germany and France) is meeting with Trump this month to discuss trade. Trump may just get the support he needs as fair trade and protecting IP is starting to gain some supporters.

From the article:

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine that he’s willing to take joint action with Washington against overcapacity in the steel market, and was looking for a unified approach against intellectual property theft. European Commission Spokesman Daniel Rosario said the EU was having high-level meetings with the U.S. that included discussions on overcapacity.

 

[dmvevguy]

How would Tesla be impacted if ww3 breaks out over this Syria debacle and Russia gets involved with US? I am sitting on some other stocks and contemplating of cashing out and even taking a few losses to get ready to buy back in on Tesla in case it gets impacted with geopolitical activities. I wouldn't think Tesla would get affected as much by that type of scenario, but curious to hear thoughts on this as it seems something is brewing over war...

 

[Starno]

How would Tesla be impacted if ww3 breaks out over this Syria debacle and Russia gets involved with US? I am sitting on some other stocks and contemplating of cashing out and even taking a few losses to get ready to buy back in on Tesla in case it gets impacted with geopolitical activities. I wouldn't think Tesla would get affected as much by that type of scenario, but curious to hear thoughts on this as it seems something is brewing over war...

It depends on your situation.
WWIII would be catastrophic. I would personally dont touch anything, just try to get as much cash and gold as possible. And "buy at the bottom".

 

[Intl Professor]

How would Tesla be impacted if ww3 breaks out over this Syria debacle and Russia gets involved with US? I am sitting on some other stocks and contemplating of cashing out and even taking a few losses to get ready to buy back in on Tesla in case it gets impacted with geopolitical activities. I wouldn't think Tesla would get affected as much by that type of scenario, but curious to hear thoughts on this as it seems something is brewing over war...

Check the market politics thread, there's a lot of discussion there. Your two cents welcome, or any others. I'll give your concern a whack in a few seconds. Always Papafox first.

 

[Intl Professor]

A number of pundits are puzzled by Mr. Trump's angry reaction to inquiries into his business affairs. That usually leaves the impression he is trying to cover up some connection to the Russia investigation. There may be another reason altogether which is sometimes hinted at but is really just the way big-time developers operate and probably will be thrown out on attorney-client-privilege grounds by the NYC Federal judge handling the recent referral. See a recent transcript by the award winning ProPublica:

Trump’s Company Is Suing Towns Across the Country to Get Breaks on Taxes — “Trump, Inc.” Podcast — ProPublica

My point here is not to provoke discussion but to show there is some fairness in the media. Further discussion should be confined to the Market politics thread as it would be a distraction.

 

[Starno]

Chap. 11 Bankruptcies Spike 63% from Year Ago

 

[sundaymorning]

Chap. 11 Bankruptcies Spike 63% from Year Ago

Tesla is the other 37%, get this in your thick skull, Tesla will have NO problems raising equities any day of the week. Hyper growth is coming, and you can add a few legacy ICE makers to that 63% in a few years.

The Syria threat looming over the market the last couple weeks is now down to near 0%. Macros will likely follow Monday.

 

[Starno]

Tesla is the other 37%, get this in your thick skull, Tesla will have NO problems raising equities any day of the week. Hyper growth is coming, and you can add a few legacy ICE makers to that 63% in a few years.

The Syria threat looming over the market the last couple weeks is now down to near 0%. Macros will likely follow Monday.

I'm not saying the contrary, it's just important to keep an eye on what's happening on the macro. It always has an impact, no matter how good the business is. Might be only temporary and not very much. But it's still there.
A stick might not stop a train, but it can still break a window....

 

[Intl Professor]

On the market politics thread I report on the discussion with my friend, a distinguished economist, about the recent job report. I've never redirected before so apologies if I screw up here.

Market politics

Edit: Obviously my coding ability like so many others is in neutral, or null. Halp!

Mod: edited the link for Intl. The way to do it is to click the post # in the top right corner (#2049 on this one, for example) and it shows you a link directly to the posting; then copy and past that URL somewhere else. --ggr.

 

[sundaymorning]

Futures are looking solid with the Syria strike being a nonevent. Let’s hope we get a big rebound Monday.

 

[Icer]

I agree, Syria is last week. Fini.

Possible trouble
How Forbes/Fortune/WSJ/NYT/WaPo/Fox/CBS/CNN/FixBiz/CNBC
treat the lawsuit story. Who will it be?

Last weeks Zuck and Elon reveals.
Two tech titans.
These came together for people. Comparing in their mind.
Critically, one of the things they did not like about Zuck is what
Elon does not like about Zuck.

One impossible to like fellow who seems to fail the Turing test,
vs an almost impossible not to like hard working good guy who
cares deeply about what he is doing.

Made a strong impression on Gayle and Nora.
Gayle of course is virtually one of the apostles to the Oprah base.
A bigger win than folks here have credited.

Solidified and expanded the base. Folks who saw that will like him, trust him more.
Remember, this would be the first look for a lot of people. CBS audience skews older, of course.

Added confidence, and a lot of people deciding they will root for him. Great really. Understated, great.
*
Just watch out for an incoming tactical nuke lawsuit hit piece,
and how much support it gets.

But selling the man as a big lying liar who lies will be tougher given the well done CBS appearance.
*
Still see SP remaining basically flat, until the Q1 number show.

 

[dhrivnak]

How would Tesla be impacted if ww3 breaks out over this Syria debacle and Russia gets involved with US? I am sitting on some other stocks and contemplating of cashing out and even taking a few losses to get ready to buy back in on Tesla in case it gets impacted with geopolitical activities. I wouldn't think Tesla would get affected as much by that type of scenario, but curious to hear thoughts on this as it seems something is brewing over war...

Have you read any history? It would be terrible. In WW2 car production nearly stopped as we produced tanks, jeeps and airplanes. And WW3 would likely go nuclear which in that case Tesla would be the LAST of your worries.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think the macros are starting to turn around. It’s been exceptionally green the past two days across the board. Earnings season appears to be strong overall so far. We might get a bullish turnaround soon that will give us some tailwind. Elon and co. can definitly deliver a very crippling blow to the shorts if production increases.

 

[Intl Professor]

Good for the market too will be a settlement of the Korean War, which has already been hinted even before Xi schooled Kim publicly with the election of Moon, Mr. Reconciliation. More suggestion this might happen, and "real world" evidence of my hopium:

South Korea to seek formal peace agreement with North at upcoming summit

The next "tell" will be any evidence of Niki Haley and John Bolton tiff on Korea—or not. If Trump appears a peacemaker like Teddy Roosevelt, who was the first peace prize Nobel laureate despite talking about a big stick, he would be in the running for the next award. We may know as early as June—or not—as Trump said today. Just speculation, not a prediction but based on power politics first principles. (I started buying TSLA in 2010, speculation based facts and physics first principles. Much more rewarding than teaching about power politics.)

Edit: NYT account is fuller and with sensible background filling. Sounds like Bolton is aboard but the tariff-tangle may hurt China's cooperative attitude.

Treaty to Formally End Korean War Is Being Discussed, South Confirms

 

[MitchJi]

Some of those 'unconventional' powers are also available to the U.S., of course, but there may be structural differences of greater import.

The problem is that we have a “moron” (to quote rex tillerson) in charge.

Further, which regions of China have been targeted by the U.S. in order to change the political climate in China and thus the electoral dynamics for top leadership there? Which government is most popular with its own people? Which government is better able to plan long term?

tRump plan ?!

That’s the definition of an oxymoron.

 

[sundaymorning]

Looks like things are going well.

China state media sees positives in trade talks with U.S.

 

[sundaymorning]

'I’m starting to turn more positive on stocks,' bounce likely weeks away: Wells Fargo's Harvey

 

[jeewee3000]

Will Trump's announcement to blow up the Iran Nuclear deal affect the Nasdaq and $TSLA?

 

[JRP3]

Apparently not, at least not negatively.

 

[Intl Professor]

Will Trump's announcement to blow up the Iran Nuclear deal affect the Nasdaq and $TSLA?

Agree with @JRP3 at least in the short term. Long term my paranoia about war is tempered somewhat by this concerning possible negative reaction by Iran.

U.S. deal exit spurs fears of Iran's cyber response

If those cited in the article are right about the Iran agreement surviving, the issue reduces to just another example of how Trump's isolationism is just another shock to the international trading system like his obsession with tariffs. Putting on my International Relations 101 filter, no matter what Trump/Kim meeting portends, North and South Korea can still reach a peace settlement since that is in the two Korea's interest. Peace can prevail without the U.S., especially without a military response. Likewise, the Eu, China, and Russia can cement their ties with Iran against the US as that is in their mutual interest.

Bottom line Trump is pursuing an isolationist policy which will affect our markets as isolation becomes greater and greater—unless corrected by opposing forces. Analysts are clear the threat of sanctions is against our allies but Trump, ever clever about loopholes, it all may depend upon the meaning of his warning to others who would help Iran's nuclear ambitions.

I'm tempted to borrow Newton's third law but can't apply to this situation. Hegel's three laws of the dialectic help. Within everything there are at least two opposed tendencies, the unity of opposites. Over time, quantitative change leads to qualitative change, but the tendency is murky (think the unity of change and not-change). Finally, that tension is relieved and you have the third law, the negation of the negation (what psychologists call resolution). Sounds like a lot of gobbledegook. But it is useful. Unfortunately Hegel's thinking applies to every dynamic situation and thus is not predictive. Neither is Ilya Prigogine's sophisticated mathematics which explains bifurcation points but is opaque on timeliness. We are left with Hegel's lyrical lament, "the Owl of Minerva takes flight at dusk" or Trump's trifecta, "we shall see."